Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Game 6 Picks – Thursday, May 28

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 28. Back in front of their home crowd, the Spurs are 3.5-point favorites on the PrizePicks Team Picks spread. 

After a dominant Game 4 performance from San Antonio, Oklahoma City responded with a nice win of its own in Game 5. In a battle between two of the best in the West, who will come out on top?

Below, we'll break down our Thunder vs. Spurs prediction and picks for Thursday’s NBA Playoff Game 6, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Thunder vs. Spurs prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s Game 6.

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Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Game 6 – Thursday, May 28

This hasn’t quite been the heavyweight bout some expected after a double-overtime Game 1, but it’s been a heck of a series nonetheless.

After stumbling out of the gate, the Thunder rebounded with back-to-back wins and led some to believe this was going to be more of the same from the defending champs. On the contrary, the Spurs had other plans.

Game 4 was the most lopsided outcome of the set, with the Spurs holding PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 19 points in a 31-point defeat. In typical Oklahoma City fashion, however, a response was delivered on Tuesday.

OKC resisted every run San Antonio made in Game 5, coming away with a critical home triumph. The difference came down to three categories: rebounds, 3-pointers, and free throws. 

With their backs against the wall, can the Spurs dig deep and force a do-or-die Game 7 back in Oklahoma City?

Thunder vs. Spurs Spread, Over/Under for Game 6 – Thursday, May 28

The Spurs enter Thursday’s game as 3.5-point home favorites against the Thunder, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Thunder vs. Spurs game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: San Antonio Spurs -3.5 (1.88x payout)
• Over/Under: 221.5 (2x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Thunder 2.27x | Spurs 1.58x

Make your Thunder vs. Spurs prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Timeline

Here is the full Thunder vs. Spurs timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.

All-Time: Spurs, 108-93

Regular Season: Spurs, 4-1

Series: Thunder, 3-2

Thunder vs. Spurs Western Conference Finals Timeline, Schedule

• Game 1: Spurs 122, Thunder 115 (2OT)
• Game 2: Thunder 122, Spurs 113
• Game 3: Thunder 123, Spurs 108
• Game 4: Spurs 103, Thunder 82
• Game 5: Thunder 127, Spurs 114
• Game 6: Thursday, May 28, 8:30 p.m. ET in San Antonio
• Game 7 if necessary

Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction on Spread for Game 6 – 5/28/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Thunder vs. Spurs prediction on the spread for Thursday, May 28.

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• Thus far in the season, including the NBA Playoffs, the Spurs are 25-20-1 against the spread as home favorites. When playing the road underdog role, the Thunder are 2-3 ATS.
• Partially thanks to guards Alex Caruso and Jared McCain, OKC continues to shoot the cover off the ball for the most part. The team is up to 36.6% from 3-point land on the year, good for eighth in the NBA.
• Will San Antonio shift its strategy away from getting the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands? If so, perhaps it can quit giving up wide-open treys and get back to being the No. 5-ranked 3-point defense (34.9%). 
• Not only have the Spurs won the offensive rebounding battle by 4.6%, but it seems mostly sustainable. This is a team that ranks third in the Association in total boards each night (55.9) and is ninth in rebounds allowed (51.9) per contest.
• Contrary to what Game 5 showed, this isn’t a strong suit for the Thunder. They’re 28th in offensive rebounding rate (23.0%) and 25th in the same statistic for their opponent (11.9 ceded per game). 

Make your Thunder vs. Spurs prediction for Game 6 on PrizePicks.

Thunder vs. Spurs Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 5/28/26

Here are the top Thunder vs. Spurs picks to target in the NBA Playoffs on PrizePicks for Thursday, May 28. Today’s NBA picks include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Victor Wembanyama.

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Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Spurs: 38.5 Pts + Asts

• After his rough Game 4, Gilgeous-Alexander bounced back in a major way with 32 points on 19 shots in Game 5.
• The back-to-back MVP has made 12+ free throws twice in his last two games, including 16 on Tuesday. San Antonio insists on playing a physical brand of defense and is paying the price.
• Midrange jumpers are still in Gilgeous-Alexander’s wheelhouse. He’s making 51.4% of his shots from 10-16 feet in the postseason after canning 58.6% during the regular season. 
• With the ball being forced out of his hands often, SGA is taking on more of a playmaking role. Per databallr, his 21.0 potential assists per 100 possessions ranks in the 100th percentile. 

Add Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Thunder C-PF Chet Holmgren vs. Spurs: 21.5 Pts + Rebs

• Following a similar trend to his star teammate, Holmgren had an improved performance in his last matchup. He poured in 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting while adding 11 boards.
• Efficiency is the name of the game for Holmgren. He posted an impressive 65.3% true shooting percentage in 69 regular-season contests, only to up that to 67.2% in 13 playoff games.
• Via NBA Advanced Stats, Holmgren receives 1.8 deferred rebound chances per playoff game, third among all centers. 
• Holmgren is bringing down 19.3% of available defensive rebounds, putting him in the 94th percentile. 

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Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Thunder: 44.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Wembanyama is averaging just 36.8 points, rebounds, and assists in the NBA Playoffs, but that number jumps to 43.6 in this series.
• In addition to maintaining a healthy 3-point rate of .300 in the postseason, Wembanyama has upped his free throw rate from .417 to .466.
• The Defensive Player of the Year is in the 93rd percentile for defensive rebounding rate at 24.0%.
• According to NBA RAPM, Wemby nets 2.0 potential assists per minute on-ball. 

Add Victor Wembanyama to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Thunder vs. Spurs on PrizePicks for Game 6

Here are some in-game angles to target for your Thunder vs. Spurs live picks. 

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• Both of these squads come out of the gate firing. OKC and San Antonio are fourth and second, respectively, in first-quarter scoring. The catch is that they’re also first and fourth on the defensive end.  
• According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Spurs are a more uptempo club than the Thunder. The former is second in pace among NBA Playoff teams at 99.42, with the latter’s 96.83 mark being fifth. 
• The fourth quarter is where the Thunder truly shine, as their +13.6 net rating is light-years ahead of the Spurs’ +3.0 mark (seventh of 16 postseason teams). 
• Turnovers continue to plague San Antonio. Perhaps it’s an inexperience thing, as the team’s 16.2% turnover clip is far worse than Oklahoma City’s 12.8% figure. 
• Wembanyama is a better player at home this season, averaging 2.8 more PPG on 3.4% better shooting from the field and 8.6% from deep in the confines of the Frost Bank Center.

Make Thunder vs. Spurs Game 6 Picks on PrizePicks

Oklahoma City’s championship DNA is beginning to shine through as the Western Conference Finals roll on. San Antonio clearly can’t be counted out, however, until the game clock expires on its final outing of the campaign. Can Wembanyama tie things up and keep the season alive?

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Thunder vs. Spurs picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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