Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction on Spread for Game 4 – Monday, May 11

The Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers NBA Playoff Game 4 is set to tip off at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, May 11, with the Thunder entering as 11.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks.

It’s been all Thunder so far in the Western Conference semifinals, winning Games 1-3 by an average margin of 19.7 points. A win on Monday would keep Oklahoma City undefeated in the postseason and send it to the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is trying to avoid being swept for the first time since the 2023 Western Conference Finals vs. the Denver Nuggets.

Below, we’ll break down our Thunder vs. Lakers prediction and picks for Game 4, including the spread from PrizePicks Team Picks.

Make your Thunder vs. Lakers picks on PrizePicks now on tonight’s NBA Game 4.

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Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Game 4 – Monday, May 11

The Thunder have dominated the Lakers this season, winning all seven games played by an average of 25.1 points. 

So far in the postseason, the 7-0 Thunder lead all teams at 122.1 PPG with an offensive rating of 127.6. They're also second in effective field goal percentage (59.1%). Reigning league MVP PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is second among all players by posting 28.3 PPG, and C Chet Holmgren has added 19.0 points and 9.1 assists per contest. 

The Lakers have hung with the defending champs in the last two games for the first half, leading at halftime of both games but losing the third quarter by 13 and 14 points. L.A. is averaging 101.3 PPG, last among all remaining playoff teams, despite shooting 46.5% from the field (fifth). It's also gotten beat on the boards, pulling down just 39.7 on average (13th).

F LeBron James is averaging 23.1 points, 15th among postseason players, but no other Lakers player is in the top 30. James is also averaging 6.1 rebounds and 7.8 assists over the nine postseason games. 

Thunder vs. Lakers Spread, Over/Under – Monday, May 11

The Thunder enter Monday’s game as 11.5-point favorites against the Lakers, returning a 1.17x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for Thunder vs. Lakers on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 (1.92x payout)
• Over/Under: 213.5 (1.78x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Thunder 1.17x | Lakers 4.54x

Play the Thunder vs. Lakers spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers Timeline

Here is the full Thunder vs. Lakers timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.

All-Time: Lakers, 183-135

Regular Season: Thunder, 4-0

Postseason: Thunder, 3-0

Thunder vs. Lakers Western Conference Semifinals Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs

• Game 1: Thunder 108, Lakers 90
• Game 2: Thunder 125, Lakers 107
• Game 3: Thunder 131, Lakers 108
• Game 4: Monday, May 11, 10:30 p.m. in Los Angeles
• Game 5-7 if necessary

Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction on Spread for Game 4 – 5/11/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Thunder vs. Lakers prediction on the spread for Monday, May 11.

Lock in your Thunder vs. Lakers prediction on PrizePicks.

• A loss on Monday would be the fourth time in James' NBA career that he was swept.
• The Lakers have been one of the better covering teams this season, currently sitting 50-41 against the spread. Taking the Thunder out completely, L.A. is 50-34 ATS against everyone else. 
• Including the first two games of the series in Oklahoma, the Lakers have been a double-digit underdog in four previous games, failing to cover in all of them. 
• The Thunder are the sixth defending champion to start 7-0 in the following postseason and would be the first NBA team to start 8-0 since the James-led Cleveland Cavaliers in 2018. 
• OKC might have the most wins but is just 44-45 ATS. With that said, the Thunder are 5-2 ATS in the postseason, including all three games against Los Angeles.
• As a double-digit favorite, the Thunder are an even 26-26 ATS. 
• There hasn’t been that much of a drop-off for the Thunder from their championship season last year. They led the league in defensive rating a year ago (106.6) and are doing so again in 2026 (106.6). Their offensive rating remains top five, and they led the sport in PPG in both campaigns (120.5 and 119.0, respectively).  

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Make Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 Picks on PrizePicks

Can the Thunder finish the sweep and advance to their second straight Western Conference Finals, or will the Lakers stay alive at home and force a Game 5?

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