Game 3 of the Thunder vs. Lakers series tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 9. Oklahoma City enters as 8.5-point favorites on the PrizePicks Team Picks spread for the matchup on ABC.
Oklahoma City continues to dominate this postseason and has captured Games 1 and 2 by a combined 36 points. Having already pulled off one upset in the NBA Playoffs, can Los Angeles right the ship at home? As they say, it isn’t a series until the road team wins.
Below, we'll break down our Thunder vs. Lakers prediction and picks for Saturday night’s NBA Playoff Game 3, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Thunder vs. Lakers prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s Game 3.
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Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Game 3 – Saturday, May 9
Neither of these clubs exceeded expectations during the regular season, but it’s hard to fault either side given the bars that were set. The Thunder, for example, were coming off a championship run and still managed to win 64 games. The Lakers, meanwhile, experienced a slew of injuries to a subpar roster but still won 53 contests.
Thus far in the series, though, it’s been all Oklahoma City. Game 1 saw C Chet Holmgren lead the team in scoring with 24 points, also chipping in 12 rebounds and 3 blocks en route to a convincing victory. Los Angeles mustered just 90 points as a team, and F LeBron James had 27 of them.
Game 2 was more of the same. Although L.A. remained competitive for a while, Holmgren and PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander each had 22 and helped the team pull away. Add in that G Ajay Mitchell went 7-of-12 from the field, and the gap in talent was evident.
With the set now heading back to Los Angeles, the pressure is on the Lakers to find a way to even the playing field a bit.
Thunder vs. Lakers Spread, Over/Under for Game 3 – Saturday, May 9
The Thunder enter Saturday’s game as 8.5-point favorites against the Lakers on the road, returning a 1.25x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Thunder vs. Lakers game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 (1.81x payout)
- Over/Under: 213.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Thunder 1.25x | Lakers 3.57x
Make your Thunder vs. Lakers prediction on spread on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers Timeline
Here is the full Thunder vs. Lakers timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.
All-Time: Lakers, 183-134
Regular Season: Thunder, 4-0
Series: Thunder, 2-0
Thunder vs. Lakers Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs
- Game 1: Thunder, 108-90
- Game 2: Thunder, 125-107
- Game 3: Saturday, May 9, 8:30 p.m. in Los Angeles
- Game 4: Monday, May 11, 10:30 p.m. in Los Angeles
- Games 5-7 if necessary
Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction on Spread for Game 3 – 5/9/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Thunder vs. Lakers prediction on spread for Saturday, May 9.
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- The Thunder are 20-19 against the spread on the road as favorites this season. In the home underdog role, the Lakers are an even 8-8 ATS as home underdogs.
- OKC’s offense is one of the best in the sport, although it’s middle-of-the-pack on 3-pointers, ranking 13th in average takes (37.9) and makes (13.9) each night.
- Defensively, it’s hard to find any weaknesses for the Thunder outside of that same long-range shot. Head coach Mark Daigneault’s crew is 23rd in the sport with a 36.7% clip allowed on 3s.
- Thanks to some inspired shooting in the NBA Playoffs at times, the Lakers are up to 13th in 3-point percentage at 36.0% while also ranking first in 2-point efficiency (58.8%).
- On the other end, Los Angeles squeaks through by yielding the third-fewest rebounds per game (49.1) and the fourth-fewest free throws (21.4).
Thunder vs. Lakers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 5/9/26
Here are three top Thunder vs. Lakers picks to target for Saturday, May 9 on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include C Chet Holmgren, PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and F LeBron James.
Thunder C Chet Holmgren vs. Lakers Projection: 26.5 Pts + Rebs
- During the regular season, Holmgren averaged 26.0 points and rebounds. That number is up to 28.4 in the NBA Playoffs.
- If you let Holmgren get to the rim, good luck stopping him. He’s shooting a video game-like 95.0% from 0-3 feet through the first and second rounds.
- Per NBA Advanced Stats, Holmgren’s 2.0 deferred rebound chances each night sit fourth among all postseason players.
- Holding a healthy 6.8% block rate in the playoffs could lead to additional rebounding chances for the All-Star big.
Add Chet Holmgren to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Lakers Projection: 40.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Gilgeous-Alexander produced 42 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 68 regular-season games. His ledger is a healthy 39.1 in the playoffs.
- The reigning NBA MVP is doing a ton of damage from midrange this postseason, making 61.1% of his shots from floater range, 53.1% from 10-16 feet, and 66.7% from 16 feet to the 3-point line.
- According to databallr, Gilgeous-Alexander brings down 10.3% of available defensive rebounding opportunities, putting him in the 64th percentile. He’s in the 74th percentile in snagging his own misses.
- SGA has posted respective usage and assist rates of at least 32% and 30% in consecutive postseasons.
Add Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Lakers F LeBron James vs. Thunder Projection: 36.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- James has gone from averaging 34.2 PRA in the regular season to 37.5 in the NBA Playoffs.
- The King’s 29.4 true shot attempts per 100 possessions in eight playoff games is a 97th-percentile figure.
- LeBron’s 38.8% assist rate ranks first among all players left in the postseason field.
- A 14.7% defensive rebounding clip puts James in the 90th percentile entering Game 3 on Saturday.
Add LeBron James to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Thunder vs. Lakers on PrizePicks for Game 3
Here are some angles to target for your Thunder vs. Lakers live picks.
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- The first quarter could be what sets the scene for the rest of the matchup. The Lakers score 30.1 PPG in the opening frame, good for sixth, but the Thunder defense is the best in the business to start outings (26.6 PPG).
- Oklahoma City is starting to separate from Los Angeles coming out of the locker room. Per NBA Advanced Stats, the Thunder are No. 2 in second-half defensive rating (100.3) this postseason, with the Lakers being eighth at 110.5.
- Don’t necessarily expect these teams to operate a run-and-gun style of play. In the NBA Playoffs, both are in the bottom half of the 16-team field in pace with L.A. being second-to-last at 93.10.
- After back-to-back games shooting 53% or better from the field, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.9 PPG on 48.2% shooting in his last three postseasons.
- Lakers F Rui Hachimura seemingly can’t miss from deep, taking 5.3 3-pointers each night and making an insane 57.1% of them. In his NBA Playoff career, he holds the top all-time mark at 51.1%.
Make Thunder vs. Lakers Game 3 Picks on PrizePicks
Oklahoma City still hasn’t lost a postseason game since winning the NBA Finals a year ago. Can Los Angeles protect home court this weekend and bring the series a bit closer in the Western Conference semifinals?
Don’t wait until lock — make your Thunder vs. Lakers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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