#1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, September 26

The #1 Texas Longhorns traveling to Knoxville to take on the #14 Tennessee Volunteers is one of the best matchups on Saturday, September 26, featuring a 12:00 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC. According to PrizePicks, Texas is a 4.5-point road favorite on the spread.

Both teams enter Saturday afternoon undefeated, with Texas at 3-0 after beating UTSA 30-6, and Tennessee is 3-0 following a dominant 42-9 win over Kennesaw State.

Below, we'll break down our Texas vs. Tennessee prediction and picks for Saturday's CFB game in Week 4, including the spread for PrizePicks.

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#1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 26

Texas enters Saturday afternoon undefeated after surviving one of the biggest games of the young season and then cruising past UTSA 30-6.

The Longhorns' 24-23 comeback win over Ohio State is obviously the season's headline result, but the most notable takeaway from their first three games could be the strong defense. Opponents are averaging just 12.0 PPG and fewer than 300 yards of total offense per game against this Longhorns defense.

QB Arch Manning has been solid through three games, throwing for 664 yards, 7 TDs, and 2 INTs while completing 61.9% of his passes. His best game came in the season opener when he threw for 300+ yards and 4 TDs against Texas State, but he has since followed it up with two sub-200-yard outings. Texas is averaging 37.7 points per game despite averaging only 225.4 passing yards per contest.

Tennessee, meanwhile, enters at 3-0 after absolutely dominating its first three opponents.

The Volunteers are averaging 47.7 points and 510.3 yards per game, ranking among the nation's best offenses. They have scored at least 42 points in every game and have won their three contests by an average of +33.7 points per game.

QB Faizon Brandon, the 5-star freshman, has thrown for 552 yards and 6 TDs without an interception, completing 69.1% of his passes. Brandon has also been extremely efficient downfield, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.

He isn't doing it alone, either, as RB DeSean Bishop has rushed for 286 yards and 4 TDs through three games.

Texas vs. Tennessee Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 26

Texas enters Saturday's game as 4.5-point favorites against Tennessee via PrizePicks. The total is currently 54.5 points.

Here are the full payouts for Texas vs. Tennessee on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

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Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction on Spread – 9/26/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Texas vs. Tennessee prediction on the spread for Saturday, September 26.

• Texas has been significantly better than Tennessee on a per-play basis against the quality of competition it has faced. The Longhorns rank 14th nationally in net adjusted EPA/play (0.49), far ahead of the Volunteers, who rank 63rd (-0.01), per Game on Paper.
• Tennessee's biggest offensive advantage is on the ground. The Vols rank fourth nationally in EPA/rush (0.38) and eighth in yards per rushing attempt (6.7). They have also produced 29 explosive runs, the most in the country entering Week 4.
• Texas' defense, however, is specifically built to challenge that strength. The Longhorns are in the 85th percentile for EPA/rush allowed (-0.12) and are giving up only 3.4 yards per carry.
• Tennessee is also extremely run-heavy, calling runs on 62.4% of its offensive plays, which ranks 14th out of 138 FBS teams.
• Brandon has been good for the Vols but is still a freshman, starting in front of 100,000 fans while facing a significant step-up in competition.
• The Longhorns have allowed only 6.4 yards per pass attempt and rank 10th in adjusted defensive EPA overall. Texas has also held opponents to a 39.3% success rate through the air (76th percentile).
• The Longhorns limit opponents to an average of 7.82 yards to gain on third downs (79th percentile). This could force Brandon into making his toughest decisions yet.
• On offense, Texas could take advantage of a Volunteers defense that ranks 91st nationally in EPA/rush (0.12).
• This weakness against the run could be even more fatal to the Volunteers since it would let Texas control the clock and keep the potent Tennessee offense on the sideline.

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Texas vs. Tennessee Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/26/26

Here are the top Texas vs. Tennessee picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, September 26. Today's CFB picks for PrizePicks include Arch Manning and Faizon Brandon.

Texas QB Arch Manning vs. Tennessee: 250.5 Pass Yards

• Manning is averaging just 221.3 yards per game, well below this projection.
• Efficiency is an issue, with Manning averaging only 6.8 yards per attempt, and his last two games came in at just 5.3 and 5.0 YPA.
• His PFF passing grade is 78.0 through three games, while his average depth of target is 8.0 yards. He has generated just 5 big-time throws against 3 turnover-worthy plays.
• Tennessee's pass defense is also legitimately strong, ranking 31st nationally with -0.09 EPA/pass allowed (78th percentile).
• The direct path to attack this Vols defense is on the ground (91st nationally in EPA/rush). This could lead to Texas choosing to take the path of least resistance, which would, in theory, limit Manning’s overall passing volume.

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Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon vs. Texas: 209.5 Pass Yards

• Brandon has thrown for just 552 yards through three games, and his 184.0 per-game average is well below this projection. He has cleared this projection only once, throwing for 226 yards vs. Furman.
• Volume has been the biggest concern. Brandon has attempted only 64 passes all season, averaging just 21.3 attempts per game. Tennessee has had no reason to put the ball in his hands 35-plus times because the rushing attack has been so effective.
• Texas has an elite run defense that could shut down this Vols run game and force more volume onto Brandon's arm, something he hasn’t had to do all season.
• It would be wise for the Vols to attack this Texas pass defense (44th nationally in EPA/pass) as opposed to its run defense (21st nationally in EPA/rush).
• Faizon has a strong complement of weapons that could lead to some pass explosives. Three of the Vols' top four pass catchers average over 14.0 yards per reception. 
• The potential game script favors Brandon. Texas is favored by a decent margin, so Tennessee should have a much greater incentive to stay aggressive than it has in its first three games. If the Vols can avoid falling behind early, Brandon should have opportunities to surpass his normal passing volume and this projection.

Add Faizon Brandon to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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College football Week 4 continues Saturday afternoon, and we have an absolute banger on our hands: No. 1 Texas travels to Knoxville to take on No. 14 Tennessee in one of the season's biggest games.

Will Texas' elite defense and balanced offense be enough to survive its first true road test? Or can Faizon Brandon and Tennessee's explosive offense use the Neyland Stadium crowd to pull off the upset?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Texas vs. Tennessee picks on PrizePicks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the CFB board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

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