Get used to chaos in the SEC, as Saturday, September 26’s college football slate features four top-25 SEC matchups. As one of three top-25 matchups tonight, #23 Texas A&M vs. #10 LSU is square in the spotlight at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, with the Tigers listed as 8.5-point favorites on the spread, per PrizePicks.
Death Valley at night is a sight that will never get old, but that’s bad news for Texas A&M, which experienced an embarrassing 31-21 loss at home vs. Kentucky last week. LSU also comes off its first loss of the season, falling 32-24 in Ole Miss’ grudge match vs. former head coach Lane Kiffin.
Let’s jump into the matchup with our Texas A&M vs. LSU prediction and picks for PrizePicks.
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#23 Texas A&M vs. #10 LSU Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Saturday, September 26
Considering each team’s loss last week, Texas A&M certainly suffered the more brutal defeat. The Aggies were 16.5-point favorites in front of home fans at Kyle Field, yet were outscored 21-0 in the third quarter of a 31-21 loss vs. Kentucky.
Meanwhile, LSU entered one of the most hostile environments you will see, with Ole Miss fans likely shouting obscenities at former head coach Lane Kiffin all night long. The Tigers were slight 2.5-point favorites but trailed 24-7 at halftime.
LSU stormed back and knotted the game at 24-24 in the fourth. The Rebels went on to win 32-24 following a touchdown and two-point conversion with 6:14 remaining. All in all, especially with several key injuries, the Bayou Bengals’ performance wasn’t that bad.
A 0-1 start in a highly competitive SEC is certainly inconvenient, making both squads hungry for a win on Saturday night. Each team enters Saturday night’s matchup a little beat up.
Texas A&M WR Terry Bussey suffered a season-ending injury last week. Plus, Aggies RB Jamarion Morrow is third on the team with 16 carries and missed last week, carrying a doubtful status. WR Ashton Bethel-Roman will potentially step into an elevated role with Bussey out for the season, but he’s questionable for tonight.
LSU has a decent list of injuries, too, as S Dashawn Spears suffered a torn ACL vs. Ole Miss, and TE Trey’Dez Green, a potential NFL first-round draft pick, is out following last week’s leg injury.
Tigers S Temarcus Cooley is off the injury report and expected to play, while CB Ja’Keem Jackson has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable.
Texas A&M vs. LSU Spread, Over/Under, Payouts – Saturday, September 26
LSU is usually a favorite for a night game in Death Valley, and that’s the case once more, with the Tigers as 8.5-point favorites with a 1.26x payout if they win outright on PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for Texas A&M vs. LSU on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under.
Make your Texas A&M vs. LSU prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction on Spread – 9/26/26
Injuries in LSU’s secondary are something to watch, as S Deshawn Spears is already out for the season. An active CB Ja’Keem Jackson would be another blow to a battered unit.
This puts pressure on the Tigers’ pass rush to perform, and fortunately, the unit has racked up a 12.96% sack rate (98th percentile) and a 22.3% havoc rate (93rd percentile), via Fourth and Short. Furthermore, EDGE Princewill Umanmielen leads the nation with 6 sacks, and his 14 pressures are tied for the fifth-highest mark, per Pro Football Focus.
Texas A&M’s pass offense has struggled to the tune of 6.0 yards per passing attempt (22nd percentile) and a 44.8% pass success rate (46th percentile), courtesy of Game on Paper. Further, the Aggies’ 14.4% havoc rate allowed (48th percentile) contributes to QB Marcel Reed’s struggles with 5.0 yards per passing attempt under pressure and 5.6 when blitzed.
Reed has 5 turnover-worthy plays on the season, including 3 vs. Kentucky last week. After A&M’s signal-caller tallied 2 INTs and 1 fumble in Week 3, LSU is fully equipped to take advantage by forcing 1.7 takeaways per game (79th percentile).
Texas A&M allows only 17.0 PPG (22nd percentile), but opponents total 5.2 yards per play (57th percentile) and 7.8 yards per passing attempt (38th percentile). The Aggies were shredded for 31 points, 408 yards, and 14.0 yards per passing attempt vs. Kentucky.
The Tigers total 8.4 yards per passing attempt (69th percentile). However, LSU has been run heavy with a 56.47% rush-play rate (65th percentile). Texas A&M gave up 4.3 yards per rushing attempt last week and now carries a mediocre 21.2% stuff rate (57th percentile).
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Texas A&M vs. LSU Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/26/26
Saturday’s top Texas A&M vs. LSU picks to target on PrizePicks include Rueben Owens II and QB Sam Leavitt.
Texas A&M RB Rueben Owens II vs. LSU: 59.5 Rush Yards
- How can Texas A&M keep it close? Quiet the home crowd by controlling the pace, which should already be a goal vs. LSU’s blistering 23.7 seconds per play (93rd percentile).
- More rushing attempts would also combat LSU’s pass rush and potentially offset some of QB Marcel Reed’s turnover woes. The Tigers give up 1.2 yards per carry (98th percentile), but Ole Miss RBs Kewan Lacy (4.8 YPC) and JT Lindsey (5.0 YPC) each had efficient yards per rushing attempt last week.
- Rueben Owens II logs 4.1 yards per rushing attempt, elevated by 116 of his 186 rushing yards coming after contact.
- With RB Jamarion Morrow doubtful, another hefty workload is likely ahead of Owens, who tallied 18 carries a week ago.
- Owens has surpassed this projection in two of three games, featuring 62.0 rushing yards per contest.
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LSU QB Sam Leavitt vs. Texas A&M: 159.5 Pass Yards (Flash Sale)
- This week’s college football Flash Sale on PrizePicks drops Sam Leavitt’s 238.5 projected pass yards to 159.5 for a limited time.
- He was held to 158 passing yards and 5.9 yards per passing attempt vs. Ole Miss, but Leavitt racked up 230 and 344 passing yards in his first two games.
- Further, Texas A&M is a more favorable matchup for the Tigers’ pass protection, carrying a 5.48% sack rate (53rd percentile) compared to Ole Miss’ 6.67% sack rate (65th percentile).
- As mentioned, the Aggies allowed far too many big plays in the pass game in Week 3, contributing to a 1.80 pass explosiveness rate allowed (12th percentile). LSU’s 1.66 pass explosiveness on offense sits in the 65th percentile.
- Considering Leavitt’s 8.2 and 9.1 yards per passing attempt from his first two games of the season, don’t be surprised if the Tigers look to push the ball downfield tonight.
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Following a shocking 10-point loss vs. Kentucky, Texas A&M is hoping to avoid an 0-2 start by grabbing a win on the road, at night, in Death Valley. LSU is happy to be home after last week’s rowdy atmosphere at Ole Miss and carry several potential advantages tonight — such as the pass rush and air attack.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Texas A&M vs. LSU picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
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