Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction, Spread, Picks for London Game – NFL Week 6

In NFLWeek 6, the Houston Texans (1-4) and Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) will battle it out in the third and final NFL London Game of the season at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, October 18. The game will take place at Wembley Stadium and air on NFL Network.

The Jaguars enter as 2.5-point favorites and return a 1.66x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

The Texans finally got their first 2026 win last week, dominating the lowly Tennessee Titans on the road, 26-3. Houston also made headlines by trading for former first-round WR Marvin Harrison Jr. from the Arizona Cardinals, reuniting him with Ohio State teammate QB C.J. Stroud. Despite the quick turnaround, Harrison is expected to play in London.

Jacksonville will be playing in London for the second straight week and is fresh off a wild 19-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. In a game that seemed all but over, the Jaguars trailed by a point with 8 seconds left following a go-ahead Eagles field goal, but a 53-yard kickoff return would set up K Cam Little for a game-winning 57-yard kick. 

Although these two teams have opposite records, both come in with some momentum. Which AFC South team comes out on top?

Below, we’ll break down our Texans vs. Jaguars prediction and picks for NFL Week 6, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Texans vs. Jaguars prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for London Game – Sunday, October 18

The Jaguars enter Sunday’s game as 2.5-point favorites against the Texans, returning a 1.66x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $166 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Texans vs. Jaguars game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Texans vs. Jaguars prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

The Texans enter Week 6 tied for 19th in points per game (22.0), and they’ve fared far better through the air than on the ground. The offense averages the sixth-most passing yards per game (261.8) but ranks 31st in rushing yards per game (79.0) and 30th in rushing yards per attempt (3.4).

Houston starting RB David Montgomery has been ruled out, leaving RB Woody Marks as the lead back. However, this might not actually be a downgrade. 

Among 42 running backs with at least 30 carries, Montgomery ranks last in rushing yards per attempt (2.7) and 27th in yards after contact per attempt (2.19), per PFF. While Marks hasn’t been particularly efficient, either, he’s 34th in both yards per attempt (3.4) and yards after contact per attempt (2.51).

Perhaps Marks could give this run game a little more juice, but most likely, the Texans will need to rely on C.J. Stroud's arm to beat the Jaguars. Stroud has thrown TDs through five games while throwing 0 picks. 

Adding Marvin Harrison Jr. could bolster a pass-catching group led by WR Nico Collins. Harrison was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft, and while he failed to live up to expectations in Arizona, the change of scenery might be what he needs to revitalize his NFL career. Reuniting with his college quarterback could also help him contribute right away, despite having little time to learn the playbook.

Defensively, Houston hasn’t been the elite unit it was last season, ranking 16th in points allowed per game (22.4) and 11th in yards allowed per game (312.4).

However, they’ve done a good job of slowing opposing rushers, giving up the third-fewest rushing yards per game (78.4) and second-fewest yards per attempt (3.3). The Texans have also racked up the second-most sacks (18).

On the other side, the Jaguars have been solid on offense, averaging the 12th-most points per game (24.6) and ranking eighth in offensive DVOA, per FTN. 

Jacksonville’s offense hasn’t put up the flashiest numbers because it plays at the third-slowest neutral pace, per Sharp Football Analysis, which has contributed to them averaging the league’s sixth-fewest plays per game (58.6). QB Trevor Lawrence has been efficient, though, averaging the seventh-most adjusted yards per attempt (8.7).

The Jaguars have been fantastic on defense, allowing the second-fewest points per game (14.0). They’ve been a pass-funnel D, giving up the third-most passing yards per game (266.2) while conceding the fewest rushing yards per game (63.8). With that in mind, this doesn’t seem like the matchup for Houston to get its run game on track. 

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Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction on Spread for London Game Today – NFL Week 6

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Texans vs. Jaguars prediction on the 2.5-point spread for Sunday, October 18.

• Advanced metrics further point to Houston having a middle-of-the-road offense at best. Per RBSDM, the Texans are 14th in EPA/play (0.003) and 17th in success rate (43.2%). Their struggling backfield is 31st in rush success rate (30.9%).
• The Jaguars rank seventh in EPA/play (0.108), further backing their efficiency on offense. 
• Among 30 qualified quarterbacks, Lawrence is sixth in adjusted EPA/play (0.238), whereas Stroud is 15th (0.123).
• In terms of defensive DVOA, Jacksonville ranks third compared to ninth for Houston.
• The Jaguars rank fourth in EPA/play allowed (-0.073) while the Texans are only 15th (-0.014). Although both defenses have found success stopping the run, Jacksonville is second in rush success rate (32.7%), which is significantly higher than Houston at 15th (38.6%).
• The Texans have the league’s second-most sacks (18), which is significantly higher than the Jaguars’ total (11). However, both defenses have roughly the same pressure rate (39%), per Sharp Football Analysis. 
• As this is, Jacksonville’s second London game in a row, they could be better adjusted to the time difference compared to their opponents.

Make your Texans vs. Jaguars picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game

Texans vs. Jaguars Picks, Player Stats for NFL Week 6 Today

Here are the top Texans vs. Jaguars picks to target in NFL Week 6 on Sunday, October 18. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Nico Collins and Parker Washington.

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Jaguars: 72.5 Receiving Yards

• Collins leads the Texans with a 26.0% target share, per SumerSports. Over his three games, he’s averaged 8.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 83.0 yards.
• Between the Texans’ struggles to run the ball and a matchup against a pass-funnel defense, Stroud could be busy on Sunday. As is, the Houston signal-caller is averaging the eighth-most pass attempts per game this year (37.0). 
• Jacksonville has allowed the most receiving yards per game (203.8) to opposing wideouts this season, per Pro Football Reference.
• Among receivers with at least 20 targets, Collins sits just outside the top 10 in yards per route run (2.54).
• Harrison figures to be a part-time player in his first game with Houston, so it’s unlikely his presence has a noticeable effect on Collins’ usage in London.

Add Nico Collins + Texans to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now

Jaguars WR Parker Washington vs. Texans: 63.5 Receiving Yards

• The Texans are another defense that gives up a lot of yards to wide receivers, coughing up the third-most per game to the position (193.4).
• Washington has tallied 83 or more receiving yards in three of his five games. He leads Jacksonville with a 25.6% target share and is averaging 70.4 receiving yards per game.
• He ranks 10th among NFL wideouts in yards per route run (2.57). Washington is also 10th in first read target share, per PlayerProfiler. 
• Houston’s defense ranks 19th in dropback EPA/play allowed (0.061), which could be a good sign for the Jaguars’ aerial attack.
• Similar to the Texans offense, the Jaguars might need to throw more due to the stout run defense they’ll be up against. Despite Jacksonville scoring only 19 points last week, Lawrence logged season-highs in passing yards (331) and attempts (39), leading to Washington hauling in 124 receiving yards. 

Add Parker Washington + Jaguars to win to your PrizePicks lineup now

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Make Jaguars vs. Texans Picks on PrizePicks

The Jacksonville Jaguars are slight favorites in London against the Houston Texans in NFL Week 6. Can they win their fourth game in a row?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Jaguars vs. Texans picks on PrizePicks now for Week 6 and earn real money if you're right.

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