Sun vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Sunday, July 19

A trio of WNBA contests populates the Sunday slate, and the last one sees the Phoenix Mercury host the Connecticut Sun for the second outing in a row at 7 p.m. ET. The contest airs on both Disney+ and ESPN, with Phoenix favored by 3.5 points on the PrizePicks Team Picks spread. 

With both teams possessing 18 losses on the year, it’s been tough sledding thus far. On the other hand, there’s still plenty left to play for as the WNBA All-Star festivities approach at the end of the month. 

Below, we'll break down our Sun vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Sunday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Sun vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Sun vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, July 19

Improvement is the name of the game for the Sun and head coach Rachid Meziane, even if unspectacular. After going 11-33 a year ago, the rebuilding team has upped its winning percentage by 3% and also spiked its offensive rating back to 101.3. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been enough to right the ship more than on the margins.

Anchored by C Brittney Griner, Connecticut’s defense is a very respectable unit that holds foes to the fourth-fewest made shots each night. With that said, the offensive side of the ball is much worse, as only the trio of Griner, G Leila Lacan, and F Aneesah Morrow is scoring in double figures per game. 

Since getting off to a 2-15 start this year, the Sun have won five of their last eight contests. That includes back-to-back wins, with the most recent one being on Friday against this very Mercury club. Thanks to 26 points on 13 shots from Lacan, the visitors held off the hosts 96-83.

Life comes at you fast in the sports world, and the Mercury are a prime example of that. Phoenix was a playoff team in 2024 and made it all the way to the WNBA Finals in 2025, but Nate Tibbetts’ program is a measly 8-18 to date. G-F Kahleah Copper’s 20.6 PPG leads the squad by a large margin, and this Phoenix group struggles to produce on both ends of the court.

The Mercury have lost five straight games and currently occupy the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. They still have some time to turn things around, though, as the surrounding teams in the standings have also struggled and ESPN’s WNBA Basketball Power Index gives them a 9.9% chance of recovering and making the playoffs. 

After tonight’s battle, these teams will face each other again on August 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET. By then, we may have a better idea of whether Connecticut’s midseason progress is serious and if Phoenix’s goose is actually cooked. 

Sun vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, July 19

The Mercury enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point home favorites against the Sun, returning a 1.56x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Sun vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Phoenix Mercury -3.5 (1.78x payout)
• Over/Under: 165.5 (1.75x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Sun 2.32x | Mercury 1.56x

Make your Sun vs. Mercury prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Sun vs. Mercury Injury Report for Sunday, July 19

Let’s dive into the full Sun vs. Mercury injury report for Sunday, July 19, via WNBA.com.

Connecticut Sun Injury Report

• F Aaliyah Edwards (knee): Probable
• C Brittney Griner (ribs): Probable
• F Aneesah Morrow (conditioning): Questionable
• G Saniya Rivers (ankle): Probable

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• C-F Natasha Mack (foot): Probable
• G Sami Whitcomb (knee): Probable

Sun vs. Mercury Prediction on Spread – 7/19/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Sun vs. Mercury prediction on the spread for Sunday, July 19’s game. 

• Phoenix is an uninspiring 3-5 against the spread as home favorites this year, but Connecticut is an even worse 3-8 ATS when serving as the road underdogs. 
• The Mercury are far from a strong 3-point shooting team at 32.9% (10th), but their Sunday opponent is the worst long-range club (27.7%) in the W.
• A lack of discipline could come back to bite the suddenly surging Sun. Their percentage of personal fouls per play (24.8%) is highest in the sport; the Mercury’s 20.1% split is the second-lowest. 
• According to databallr, there’s no worse team by net rating than the Sun at -7.3. The Mercury’s -5.2 mark slots in at 11th. 
• Converting on efficient looks on offense is another weak point for Connecticut, whose true shooting rating relative to league average (-6.7) is dead last. Phoenix is ninth at -0.2.

Lock in your Sun vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA game.

Sun vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/19/26

Here are the top Sun vs. Mercury picks to target on Sunday, July 19. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include G Leila Lacan, F Alyssa Thomas, and G-F Kahleah Copper.

Sun G Leila Lacan vs. Mercury: 19 Pts + Asts

• Lacan averages a combined 17.9 points and assists this season. That number is 20.4 in the month of July, however. 
• The sophomore guard has improved her 3-point shooting from 22.4% as a rookie to 30.2% this year, also taking 1.2 more attempts per game.
• Lacan gets an unassisted bucket 48.6% of the time, ranking in the 86th percentile.
• In addition to carrying a healthy 21.7% usage rate, Lacan’s 2.62 assist-to-turnover ratio is in the 94th percentile. 

Add Leila Lacan to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mercury F Alyssa Thomas vs. Sun: 29.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Thomas’ per-game PRA mark of 29.4 has remained mostly steady at 28.4 during the Mercury’s five-outing losing streak. 
• The veteran forward is a midrange assassin, canning 41.3% of her tries from 10-16 feet and 50% of them from 16 feet to the 3-point line.
• Thomas is a solid factor on the defensive boards, where her 16.4% rebounding clip ranks in the 80th percentile.
• The WNBA’s assist leader spends 35.8% of her time on the ball (84th percentile). 

Add Alyssa Thomas to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Mercury G-F Kahleah Copper vs. Sun: 20.5 Points

• Copper is enjoying quite the productive campaign for the Mercury, scoring 20.6 points on average in 25 games played. 
• The former Washington and Chicago standout is effective in short range, evidenced by her 70.5% efficiency from 0-3 feet and a 49.5% conversion rate from the floater area (3-10 feet).
• The four-time All-Star is in the 91st percentile or higher in shot volume at the rim, both midrange realms, 3-point land, and the free throw line. 
• The Sun induce the sport’s highest free throw rate at 37.7%, which could help Copper snag extra opportunities for points. 

Add Kahleah Copper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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It’s safe to say this hasn’t been the season either of these squads had in mind. After Connecticut sent a statement in Friday’s double-digit victory, will Phoenix respond and snap its skid on Sunday? 

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Sun vs. Mercury picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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