The Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury game is set to tip off at 10 p.m. ET on Friday, July 17, with the Mercury entering as 4.5-point favorites on the spread and returning a 1.49x payout to win, via PrizePicks.
The Sun (6-18) head to the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix to cap off a four-game WNBA slate on Friday evening. Connecticut ended a two-game skid on Tuesday with a 90-87 win over the Fire at home. The Eastern Conference’s last-place team now hits the road for a three-game road trip.
The Mercury (8-17) will look to snap a four-game losing streak and pick up just their second win in July. Phoenix’s offensive trouble has continued, with the team suffering the third-worst blowout in WNBA history vs. the Aces last Saturday.
Phoenix will now look to bounce back with the Sun in town for the next two games before heading to L.A. to play the Sparks before the break.
Below, we'll break down our Sun vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Friday's WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Sun vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.
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Sun vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, July 17
Tonight's matchup features two of the league's worst teams, each looking to build some momentum heading into the second half of the season. Phoenix is just 3-8 at home, averaging 86.0 PPG at the Mortgage Matchup Center.
They take on the Sun here, who come in with a 2-8 road record and the lowest scoring average away from home (77.4 PPG). Connecticut is tied with the Storm for the fewest wins (6) but will aim to build on its victory over the Fire.
The Sun may like their chances heading into Phoenix against a squad that has struggled to find its identity after reaching the WNBA Finals just a season ago. The Mercury built their reputation on the defensive end last season, finishing fourth with a 0.975 defensive efficiency rating.
After losing key players in the offseason, however, Phoenix has slipped to the fourth-worst defense in the sport, posting a 1.058 defensive efficiency nearly halfway through the campaign.
The Mercury will at least benefit from facing the lowest-scoring team in the Association — and one that hasn't fared particularly well on the road. The Sun averaged a league-low 79.7 PPG and shot the worst percentage from deep of any team at 27.6%.
With that said, Connecticut arrives fresh off one of its better offensive performances of the season, putting up 90 points on Tuesday afternoon. The Sun did most of their damage inside the arc, scoring just 9 of those 90 points from beyond the 3-point line.
The Mercury, who have primarily fallen short regarding perimeter defense, could feel confident about containing the Sun's interior-heavy offense on Friday evening.
Sun vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Friday, July 17
The Mercury enter Friday’s game as 4.5-point home favorites against the Sun, returning a 1.49x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Sun vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury -4.5 (1.88x payout)
- Over/Under: 162.5 (1.75x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Sun 2.5x | Mercury 1.49x
Make your Sun vs. Mercury prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Sun vs. Mercury Injury Report for Friday, July 17
Let’s dive into the full Sun vs. Mercury injury report for Friday, via WNBA.com.
Connecticut Sun Injury Report
- F Aneesah Morrow (Conditioning) - Doubtful
- G Saniya Rivers (Ankle) - Probable
Phoenix Mercury Injury Report
- C-F Natasha Mack (Foot) - Doubtful
- C Kyara Linskens (Knee) - Probable
- G Sami Whitcomb (Knee) - Questionable
Sun vs. Mercury Prediction on Over/Under – 7/17/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Sun vs. Mercury prediction on the over/under for Friday, July 17.
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- Despite winning just three games at home, the Mercury are averaging nearly 3 more PPG than their season average. They rank in the middle of the pack with a 1.030 offensive efficiency at home this season.
- The Sun’s 77.4 PPG on the road is the lowest of all teams in the W. This marks the second straight season Connecticut has ranked last in away PPG.
- These teams met at the Mortgage Matchup Center once last season, with the Sun scoring only 66 points in a 16-point loss to the Mercury. Phoenix won last year’s season series against the Sun 2-1.
- No team scores a higher percentage of its points from inside the arc than the Sun at 61.7%.
- The Mercury have allowed the third-highest shooting share from deep to their opponents at home this season. They've been slightly better defending inside the arc, with opponents shooting 51.7% from 2 at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Sun vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/17/26
Here are the top Sun vs. Mercury picks to target on Friday, July 17. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Brittney Griner and Alyssa Thomas.
Sun C Brittney Griner vs. Mercury: 22.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Brittney Griner has been one of the league's premier bigs for years and is averaging 22.1 combined points, rebounds, and assists. She's hit her stride recently, entering Friday's game coming off the two best performances of her season.
- Griner scored 20+ points for the first time this year in each of her last two games. Her 29-point outing against the Lynx earlier this month was her highest-scoring performance since 2023.
- The Sun star has surpassed 23 PRA in four of her last five appearances, averaging 10 combined rebounds and assists.
- Griner, known for her interior game, is shooting 55.2% from the field, with all of her points coming from inside or at the free throw line.
Add Brittney Griner to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Mercury F Alyssa Thomas vs. Sun: 15 Rebs + Asts
- Alyssa Thomas has been one of the league's best all-around players for several seasons and currently leads the WNBA with 8.0 assists per game.
- The league's all-time triple-double leader is averaging 14.9 combined rebounds and assists thus far.
- Thomas enters Friday's game coming off a 20 rebounds + assists performance against Minnesota and averages 9.3 rebounds and 11.0 assists in her career against the Sun.
- She finished last season with a combined 20 rebounds and 23 assists across two games against Connecticut.
Add Alyssa Thomas to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Tonight's matchup between the league's 13th and 14th-place teams should make for an interesting watch as both sides look to make a late push toward the postseason. Could this be a low-scoring game with poor shooting from beyond the arc?
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