Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with Thursday Night Football, as the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) visit the Cleveland Browns (2-1) for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Prime Video. Ahead of Thursday, October 1’s meeting, PrizePicks tabs the Steelers as a 2.5-point favorite for the spread.
The Steelers and Browns are off to surprising starts, part of a four-way tie for first place in the AFC North. Pittsburgh comes off a 30-27 win vs. the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Browns have won consecutive games in the first half of the regular season for the first time since 2023.
Let’s dive into the AFC North battle, including a Steelers vs. Browns prediction and picks against the spread for Thursday Night Football, featuring payouts via PrizePicks.
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Steelers vs. Browns Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football – 10/1/26
The Steelers are on a high following their best offensive performance of the young season, racking up 411 yards and 7.0 yards per play in a 30-27 win vs. the Bengals. That was a major step up from 11.5 points per game (PPG) and 4.1 and 3.5 yards per play totals over the first two weeks.
However, news surrounding a trade is now front and center, as the Steelers sent CB Joey Porter Jr. to the Cowboys on Wednesday night.
After failed contract negotiations, Porter had yet to play this season and was even ruled out for Thursday Night Football due to a “back” injury. According to Stick to the Model, Porter’s 4.9 yards per target allowed was the third-best mark among cornerbacks with at least a 70.0% snap rate in the 2025 season.
This trade is a clear loss for the remainder of the season, but Pittsburgh has already played in three games without Porter and has still held opponents to 20.0 PPG (11th) and -0.050 EPA per play (11th), per RBSDM.
The pass defense has become even more reliant on the pass rush. Despite an 8.99% sack rate (fourth), the Steelers have a league-worst 39% pass rush win rate, via ESPN, suggesting regression could be ahead.
That may be an issue against the Browns, who have surprised in the passing games by totaling 7.1 yards per passing attempt (17th) and allowing 6.8 (13th). Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson carries 0.191 adjusted EPA per play (12th) and a 47.6% success rate (14th) over the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Browns defense has yielded -0.015 EPA per play (15th) and a 43.3% success rate (15th). After the Panthers posted 35.5 PPG in the first two weeks, Cleveland limited Carolina to 4 of 15 on third downs and 0 of 3 on fourth downs in Week 3’s 21-18 win.
On the injury report, Cleveland will be without two starting offensive linemen: C Elgton Jenkins (concussion) and G Teven Jenkins (back). Steelers RB Rico Dowdle (toe) is out, and CB Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a wrist injury.
Steelers vs. Browns Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 1
The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites on the spread for tonight’s AFC North clash with the Browns, per PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for the Steelers vs. Browns on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under.
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PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction on Spread for Thursday Night Football – 10/1/26
While each offense has taken steps forward recently, neither unit inspires much confidence, as the Steelers have a 40.2% success rate (26th) compared to the Browns’ 41.4% (22nd).
Pittsburgh carries a 33.9% rush success rate (24th), which is slightly above Cleveland’s 31.7% (26th). That’s further reflected in offensive line play, with the Steelers' 72% run block win rate (22nd) and the Browns’ 71% mark (27th).
Cleveland’s chance of running the ball could be even worse without two starting offensive linemen. Browns RB Quinshon Judkins hasn’t been running the ball well, featuring 3.0 yards per carry. According to Pro Football Focus, Judkins’ 2.31 yards after contact per attempt ranks 37th among RBs with at least 20 carries.
Further, the Browns still have a 44.91% rush-play rate (15th), adding to the unit’s inefficiencies. QB Deshaun Watson has enjoyed an average time to throw of 3.07 seconds (11th-most), but that could come down against a strong pass rush and injuries on the offensive line.
Despite a 35.26% rush-play rate (29th), the Steelers are logging 4.3 yards per carry (12th). Pittsburgh has a lofty 64.74% pass-play rate (fourth), but dropping back often against Cleveland is like playing with fire.
Browns second-year DT Mason Graham is performing like one of the NFL’s best interior defensive linemen with 9 pressures and 4 sacks over three games. Plus, EDGE Jared Verse comes off his best game as a Brown with 6 pressures.
However, the Steelers feel better suited to handle a good pass rush, unlike Cleveland. For example, QB Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball out quick with 2.81 seconds for average time to throw (16th-fewest).
Pittsburgh also made changes to its offensive line in Week 3, inserting RG Brock Hoffman and rookie RT Max Iheanachor into the starting lineup. Iheanachor had a strong performance, likely raising the ceiling of this offensive line for the remainder of the season.
In summary, each offense deals with inefficiencies and will be facing strong defensive lines. With concerns in the run game, the unit that handles the pass rush could fuel a win and cover against the spread. The Steelers are getting the ball out quick with a recently improved offensive line, while the Browns are without two starting offensive linemen.
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The victor of Thursday Night Football will have sole possession of first place in the AFC North. The Steelers look to build off their best offensive performance of the season, while the Browns are hunting their first three-game winning streak since 2023.
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