The second game on the NBA's Christmas Day schedule sees the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (26-4) hosting the ascending San Antonio Spurs (22-7). The game tips at 2:30 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN.
This is the third time these Western Conference heavies have squared off in the last 12 days, with the upstart Spurs taking the previous two, including Tuesday's 130-110 win in Texas.
We'll break down our Spurs vs. Thunder prediction and PrizePicks NBA picks for Christmas Day, including picks for Spurs C Victor Wembanyama, and Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread
Oklahoma City comes into the game as 9.5-point favorites, returning a 1.81x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they cover.
San Antonio is the road underdog, with a 1.81x payout if they cover the 9.5 points, and a 3.33x payout if they win outright.
- Spread: Thunder -9.5
- Over/Under: 234.5 (1.75x on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Spurs 3.33x | Thunder 1.29x
(Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.)
Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know for Spurs vs. Thunder tonight, including analysis of our prediction for this matchup.
- The Thunder have the NBA's best win/loss record at 26-4, but struggle to cover the spread, going just 16-14.
- Oklahoma City is much better at home, going 9-5 ATS at Paycom Center.
- OKC lost its last game to those same Spurs, but performs well following a loss, and is 3-0 ATS in that situation.
- The Spurs struggle to cover on the road as they are 6-8-1 ATS.
Spurs vs. Thunder Christmas Day Prediction
Here are three top Spurs vs. Thunder picks to target on Christmas Day with PrizePicks player projections.
Spurs C Victor Wembanyama Projection: 26.5 Pts+Rebs
- Wembanyama recorded just 17 pts+rebs in the December 23 130-110 win over the Thunder. However, he only played 23 minutes, possibly due to the Spurs' dominant performance.
- The third-year center has more than 27 pts+rebs in five of eight games on the road.
- Wemby is one of the best defensive rebounders in the league — his 28.9 defensive board percentage ranks in the 100th percentile.
- The Frenchman is the only player since December 13 to average under 21 minutes and over 10 rebounds.
- The Spurs are averaging 7.0 box outs per game against Oklahoma City, the seventh-most OKC has allowed to any opponent.
- The man they call the Alien is second on the team with 1.0 rebounds on box outs.
Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Projection: 32.5 Points
- SGA scored 33 points in the December 23 130-110 loss to the Spurs.
- Gilgeous-Alexander is second in the league with 32.5 points per game.
- The reigning MVP is the only player who is shooting over 55% from the floor and attempting more than 19 shots per game.
- The former Kentucky guard’s scoring comes from his ability to create opportunities, as his 19.0 creation true shot attempts per 100 possessions rank in the 100th percentile.
- Since the 2024-25 season, Shai averages a combined 22.2 points per 75 possessions when being guarded by Spurs Gs De’Aaron Fox or Stephon Castle.
Spurs G Devin Vassell Projection: 19.5 PRA
- Spurs G Devin Vassell had 23 PRA in the December 23 130-110 loss to the Thunder.
- The six-year veteran has more than 19 PRA in three straight games against OKC.
- Vassell averages 20.4 PRA in 13 career games against OKC.
- The former Florida State guard has more than 19 PRA when the Spurs are an underdog.
- The addition of Fox has elevated Vassell’s game — in his career without Fox, he has a 54.7% true shooting rate, but with Fox, it’s 59.4%.
- Vassell is shooting 41.1% (7-or-17) from three in two games against OKC.
Make Christmas Day NBA Picks on PrizePicks
In this Western Conference clash, there are plenty of spots to make your NBA picks on PrizePicks. Just predict More or Less on NBA player projections — like SGA's points — and win money if you're right.
Check out the Playbook for more PrizePicks NBA picks and analysis all the way through the 2025-26 season.
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