Spurs vs. Lakers Prediction, Picks for NBA Cup: Luka Doncic, LeBron, More

LeBon James and Luka Doncic celebrate at an NBA basketball game.
AP Photo/Chris Szagola

The final game of the NBA Cup knockout round takes place in Los Angeles on Wednesday between the Spurs (16-7) and Lakers (17-7).

Los Angeles returns home after a 2-1 road trip, capped off by a 112-108 victory at Philadelphia on Sunday.

The Spurs are playing in their ninth different city since November 23 and hope to advance to the semifinals in Las Vegas on Saturday. 

Spurs C Victor Wembanyama will miss his 12th straight game tonight with a calf strain. San Antonio has posted a solid 8-3 record in Wemby’s absence.

Let’s look at the Spurs vs. Lakers prediction and NBA Cup picks for Wednesday night’s showdown at Crypto.com Arena, tipping off at 10:00 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.

{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Spurs vs. Lakers Prediction, Picks for NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Over/Under, Spread

The Lakers captured the inaugural 2023 NBA Cup championship, defeating the Pacers. The Spurs are seeking their first appearance in the semifinal of the NBA Cup. 

Spurs vs. Lakers Over/Under, Spread

The Lakers enter this matchup as 6.5-point favorites, returning a 1.35x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

The Spurs are road underdogs with a 2.94x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

  • Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -6.5
  • Total: 237.5
  • Game Winner Payout: Spurs 2.94x | Lakers 1.35x

(Team Picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change)


Spurs vs. Lakers Prediction: Spurs +6.5

Here are some stats to know to get you set for Spurs vs. Lakers tonight, including insights on our Spurs vs. Lakers prediction.

  • The Spurs own a 4-2 mark against the spread as an underdog of 3 or more points.
  • San Antonio has won five of the past eight road games since losing at Los Angeles, 118-116 on November 5.
  • In that 2-point defeat, the Spurs — who led by 8 going into the fourth — closed as a 2-point road favorite.
  • The Lakers failed to cover in their last two home games against the Suns and Pelicans. Los Angeles lost outright to Phoenix on December 1 as 5.5-point favorites, 125-108.
  • In the last five games, the Lakers have allowed opponents to shoot 44.8% from 3-point range. Not one team has defended the 3-point shot worse in this stretch.
  • Lakers F LeBron James returned to the lineup on November 18 against Utah. Los Angeles has allowed an average of 122 points per game in the four home contests he has played.

Spurs vs. Lakers Picks for NBA Cup Quarterfinal

Here are three top Spurs vs. Lakers picks to target on Wednesday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by three players: Los Angeles G Luka Doncic, San Antonio G Stephon Castle, and Lakers F LeBron James.

Lakers G Luka Doncic vs. Spurs Projection: 33 Points

  • Doncic leads the league in scoring at 35.0 ppg. The last player to average at least 35 ppg was James Harden in 2018-19, when he put up 36.1 with the 76ers.
  • The former Maverick has compiled at least 30 points in eight consecutive games. 
  • The most impressive scoring stat for Doncic is his 38.1 ppg average at home. He has put up at least 34 points in eight of nine games at Crypto.com Arena.
  • In the first matchup with San Antonio, Doncic scored 35 points, but shot 9-for-27 from the floor. Both James and Austin Reaves injured andout.

Spurs G Stephon Castle vs. Lakers Projection: 15.5 Points

  • The 2024 Rookie of the Year is averaging 17.4 ppg, nearly a 3-point increase from last season.
  • Castle returned from a one-month absence to score 18 points in Monday’s 135-132 victory at New Orleans.
  • The former UConn standout has performed better on the road, racking up 19.5 ppg away from Frost Bank Center. 
  • One of the most amazing home-road splits is Castle’s 3-point shooting. At home, he has converted on only 15.4% of his attempts, but is connecting on 34.6% of his tries on the road.

Lakers F LeBron James vs. Spurs Projection: 24.5 Pts+Rebs

  • Father Time catches up with everyone, including James, who is averaging a career-low 16.1 ppg.
  • James missed the first 14 games with sciatica and scored fewer than 17 points in five of his first six.
  • However, the King showed flashes of his younger self in Sunday’s win over the 76ers. The four-time NBA champion put up 29 points on 12-of-17 shooting, including hitting a season-high 4 shots from 3-point land. 
  • In three of seven games, James has eclipsed this projection. He has grabbed 13 rebounds in the past two contests after failing to pick up a board in the loss to Phoenix on December 1.
  • In three matchups with the Spurs last season, the top pick of the 2003 draft didn’t score more than 18 points.
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Make Picks on NBA on PrizePicks

The winner of this matchup between the Lakers and Spurs will capture the final spot in the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas on Saturday against either the Suns or Thunder.

There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every NBA moment than with PrizePicks.

There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NBA board, so you can build your Lineup however you’d like — with no salary or positional restrictions. Just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks.

Check out the Playbook throughout the season for more NBA picks, predictions, and news every day (or for every game).


Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.

Get in the game! Sign up for PrizePicks and cash in on your sports predictions. Play $5 and get $50 instantly in Lineups with promo code PLAYBOOK.

about the author

Kevin has spent the last 15 years in the sports gambling space. He covered all major sports at VegasInsider both as a writer and handicapper from 2009 until 2024. He has also covered college basketball and MLB for the Action Network.

New User Offer
Get $50 Instantly

In Lineups after you play $5

Play Now
PrizePicks Logomark

Smart Picks Start Here.

Get expert insights, analysis, and news delivered straight to your inbox.

Green checkmark emoji
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
official Partner of

Join the largest squad in Daily Fantasy Sports

Join our Discord
let’s goooo