As the Emirates NBA Cup rolls on, the in-season tournament features a pair of semifinal matchups on Saturday. The nightcap between the Thunder and Spurs (9:00 p.m. ET on Prime Video) may be the best of the bunch.
With both sides boasting plenty of star power and getting healthy in time for the weekend, this could shape up to be an exciting bout. The winner of Saturday’s outing will await the Eastern Conference representative from Knicks vs. Magic.
Below, we’ll break down a Spurs vs. Thunder prediction and picks for the NBA Cup Semis. Use PrizePicks NBA to make player picks and win money if you’re right.
Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Saturday marks the 192nd time the Spurs and Thunder will meet in a regular-season matchup. With San Antonio owning a 102-89 series advantage, bragging rights are lumped into the mix of things at stake on Saturday.
On the bright side, both squads are nearing full strength. For the Spurs, superstar C Victor Wembanyama (calf) is expected to make his return after an extended absence. Elsewhere, the Thunder will get back C Isaiah Hartenstein, marking the first time all season their entire starting five is projected to be available.
Spurs vs. Thunder Over/Under, Spread
The Spurs enter Saturday’s game as 10.5-point road underdogs, returning a 4.34x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Thunder are home favorites with a 1.17x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5
- Over/Under: 234.5
- Game Winner Payout: Spurs 4.34x | Thunder 1.17x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread
- At 24-1, despite being banged up, the Thunder have matched the 2015 Golden State Warriors for the best 25-game start in NBA history.
- Oklahoma City boasts the fifth-best offensive rating (120.5) and best defensive rating (103.3) in the league. The gap between first and second place on defense (7.7) is the same between second and 25th.
- OKC is 14-11 against the spread in 2025, good for a 56% conversion rate that’s tied for eighth leaguewide.
- Although the Spurs’ defense ranks 11th overall, it’s 26th in 3-point percentage allowed at 38.2. The Thunder rank fifth in 3-point efficiency on offense at 38.1%.
- Keep an eye on how both teams come out of the locker room after halftime. Oklahoma City scores the second-most third-quarter PPG (32.5), and San Antonio yields the third-most (31.5).
Spurs vs. Thunder NBA Picks, Stats for NBA Cup Semis
Here are three top Spurs vs. Thunder picks to target on Saturday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by C Victor Wembanyama and PGs De’Aaron Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Thunder Projection: 26.5 Pts + Rebs
- Wembanyama is returning from a 12-game absence, good for exactly half of the Spurs’ season thus far. It remains to be seen whether his minutes will be restricted on Saturday.
- Could the alien big man be rusty in his first game back? Via NBARAPM, his 12.7% scoring turnover rate (non-passing turnovers) is a sixth-percentile figure.
- Wemby’s 3.8% self-rebounding clip puts him in just the 44th percentile, according to databallr.
- Per FantasyPros, the Thunder allow the second-fewest points (17.17) and fourth-fewest rebounds (13.16) per game to the C position.
Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox vs. Thunder Projection: 25.5 Pts + Asts
- In his second season with the Spurs, Fox averages 30.3 combined points and assists.
- Per StatMuse, the star PG averages 21.1 points and 6.9 assists per game in outings with Wembanyama.
- Fox’s 28.5 true shot attempts per 100 place him in the 91st percentile leaguewide. His +3.0% relative true shooting clip is an 86th-percentile benchmark.
- After coming over via trade from the Kings, Fox posted a 30.8% assist rate in 17 games last year. He’s at 30.6% in 16 contests this year. Both are his best marks since 2020.
Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Spurs Projection: 42.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Gilgeous-Alexander nets 43.7 combined points, rebounds, and assists per game this season. That PRA number is an even 44 in his last nine outings.
- Among all players averaging 30+ minutes per game, SGA is fourth in true shooting percentage (69.1) and sixth in assist to turnover ratio (3.63).
- The reigning MVP ranks in the 100th percentile in shot usage (33.4), relative true shooting percentage (+11.3), and free throw attempts per 100 (14.2).
- Gilgeous-Alexander posts an 11.6% defensive rebounding rate, which is in the top 20% for his position.
Make Spurs vs. Thunder NBA Cup Picks on PrizePicks
Spurs vs. Thunder isn’t the only avenue basketball fans have to make NBA picks. With PrizePicks, you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit.
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