Two teams trending in opposite directions do battle on Friday, the eve of Independence Day. At 10 p.m. ET on ION, the Chicago Sky and Las Vegas Aces square off at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Coming into Friday night’s outing, the Aces are considerable 6.5-point home favorites and return a 1.31x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright. Can they defend home court, or will the Sky pull off an upset on the road?
Below, we'll break down our Sky vs. Aces prediction and picks for Friday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Sky vs. Aces prediction on PrizePicks now.
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Sky vs. Aces Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, July 3
It’s been tough sledding for the Sky, although that’s nothing particularly new. Head coach Tyler Marsh’s crew has followed up last year’s 10-34 record with a 6-13 mark through 19 games, which is somehow an 8.9% win rate improvement.
Chicago’s offense has improved significantly, owning a 105.7 rating that’d be the team’s best since 2022. Struggles persist on the defensive end, however, holding the team back. A season-ending ACL tear to star F Rickea Jackson appears to have sunk the ship, as the Sky are 3-12 since then.
Coming off a third WNBA Finals triumph in four years, the Aces have picked up where they left off under head coach Becky Hammon. Thanks to a star-powered offensive attack, Las Vegas is 14-5 on the year and reached the championship game of the WNBA Commissioner's Cup.
The Aces own one of basketball’s more efficient offenses, and C A’Ja Wilson is turning in yet another campaign for the ages. As long as she and the team can stay healthy, this figures to be as serious a contender as there is.
This is the second of consecutive contests between these two clubs. They faced off last Sunday before a bit of a break, with Las Vegas emerging with an eight-point victory thanks to G Jackie Young’s 28 points on just 14 shots.
The Sky and Aces will play again on Saturday, August 1 at Wintrust Arena in Chicago.
Sky vs. Aces Spread, Over/Under – Friday, July 3
The Aces enter Friday’s game as 6.5-point home favorites against the Sky, returning a 1.31x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Here are the full payouts for the Sky vs. Aces game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces -6.5 (1.69x payout)
- Over/Under: 180.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Sky 3.22x | Aces 1.31x
Make your Sky vs. Aces prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Sky vs. Aces Injury Report for Friday, July 3
Let’s dive into the full Sky vs. Aces injury report for Friday, July 3, via WNBA.com.
Chicago Sky Injury Report
- F DiJonai Carrington (foot): OUT
Las Vegas Aces Injury Report
- F Janiah Barker (leg): OUT
- G Dana Evans (leg): OUT
- C A’Ja Wilson (leg): Questionable
Sky vs. Aces Prediction on Spread – 7/3/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Sky vs. Aces prediction on the spread for Friday, July 3’s game.
- Las Vegas is 3-5 against the spread as a home favorite. This team is tremendous at responding to adversity, going 4-1 ATS following a loss in 2026.
- Chicago’s offense isn’t very effective, sitting 11th or worse in shooting percentage (43.4%), effective field goal clip (48.5%), and 3-point shooting (30.7%).
- The fastbreak battle could be a matchup to watch on Friday. The Sky are fifth in fastbreak PPG with 9.9, but the Aces allow fewer (8.1) than all but one team.
- There’s a significant gap between the game-to-game quality of these opponents, as evidenced by databallr noting a +5.8 net rating for Las Vegas (third) and a -3.7 figure for Chicago (10th).
- The Aces have the clear advantage on the boards, ranking seventh in rebounds per game (43.2) and fourth in rebounds allowed each time out (40.3). The Sky are ninth and dead last, respectively.
Lock in your Sky vs. Aces prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA game.
Sky vs. Aces Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/3/26
Here are the top Sky vs. Aces picks to target on Friday, July 3. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include C Kamilla Cardoso, G Chelsea Gray, and G Jackie Young.
Sky C Kamilla Cardoso vs. Aces: 21.5 Pts + Rebs
- On the year, Cardoso averages 23.1 combined points and rebounds each night. She’s scored 54 points in her last two contests.
- Cardoso has improved her efficiency around the rim, making a career-high 67.7% of her shots from 0-3 feet on a personal-best 69.8% volume of her overall attempts.
- Part of Cardoso’s increased scoring numbers stems from her free throw attempts jumping from 3.3 to 4.2 per game. She’s making 72.5% of them, right in line with her career mark of 72.4%.
- Cardoso’s offensive and defensive rebounding rates fall in the 90th and 88th percentiles, respectively, per databallr.
Add Kamilla Cardoso to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Aces G Chelsea Gray: 20.5 Pts + Asts
- Gray is up to 19.7 points and assists on average, and she’s logged 8+ assists in six straight outings.
- The veteran guard is lighting it up from distance, canning 42.7% of her 3-point tries while taking 5.1 per game — more than she ever has.
- Unbelievably, Gray has yet to miss a shot at the rim this season. It likely has something to do with those attempts making up just 2.7% of her shot diet, but she’s also effective from midrange as well (47.1% from 10-16 feet).
- Gray spends 34.0% of her time on-ball (79th percentile) and holds a 2.31 assist-to-turnover ratio (86th percentile).
Add Chelsea Gray to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Aces G Jackie Young: 31.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Young is a stat-sheet stuffer for the Aces, compiling 27.9 points, rebounds, and assists per game. In her last five, that number is way up to 34.0.
- The four-time All-Star is a remarkable scorer, making 45.2% of her overall shots with 44.4% of them being of the unassisted variety.
- Chicago is the third-worst team in the W when it comes to allowing offensive (29.8%) or defensive (76.2%) boards to opponents.
- Young takes excellent care of the basketball, maintaining a 22.6% usage rate (77th percentile) while also holding a 3.23 A/TO ratio (97th percentile).
Add Jackie Young to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Things haven’t been going right for Chicago all year long, and the club is just 3-7 in its last 10 games. Can it come away with an upset win over a Vegas team looking to catch the Minnesota Lynx for the top spot in the Western Conference?
Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Sky vs. Aces picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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