Two of the NFL’s hottest teams meet when the Atlanta Falcons host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. According to PrizePicks, Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite for the spread tonight.
The Falcons have been thriving with QB Michael Penix Jr. back under center and turned in a dominant 45-24 win vs. the New Orleans Saints on Monday. Meanwhile, the Ravens topped the Tennessee Titans with a 24-18 win in Week 4.
Below, we’ll break down our Ravens vs. Falcons prediction and picks for Week 5’s Sunday Night Football game tonight, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Ravens vs. Falcons prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!
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Ravens vs. Falcons Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Sunday Night Football
The Falcons enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point home favorites against the Ravens, returning a 1.53x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $153 on a $100 entry.
Here are the full payouts for the Ravens vs. Falcons game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Ravens vs. Falcons prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!
The Falcons had an underwhelming start to the 2026 season, as they were outscored 54-16 in their first two games with QB Cooper Rush under center. However, Atlanta has completely shifted its fortunes in its last two games when QB Michael Penix Jr. returned to the lineup.
Penix has completed 73.3% of his passes for 479 yards and 2 TDs, while averaging a league-best 10.6 yards per completion, per PlayerProfiler. The Falcons QB has also recorded an 83.0 QBR, ranking third among NFL QBs.
Penix’s presence has also opened things up for the running game recently. The Falcons have rushed for 447 yards and 8 TDs between RBs Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson. Additionally, the Falcons have the second-most rushing yards per game (181.0) this season, with only the Chicago Bears (196.3) registering more.
Defensively, the Falcons have surrendered 23.0 points per game (16th), while holding their opponents to a league-low 48.3 rushing yards per game. However, Atlanta has yielded the fifth-most passing yards (1,059) to its opponents.
Meanwhile, the Ravens aren’t at full-strength heading into Sunday’s primetime contest. Baltimore has already ruled out QB Lamar Jackson with a left ankle injury that he suffered against the Titans in Week 4.
With Jackson out, the Ravens will start QB Tyler Huntley in his place. Huntley has 16 career starts under his belt, with 11 of those coming with Baltimore. The veteran QB completed 8 of 9 passes for 63 yards in relief of Jackson after Jackson injured his ankle last week.
Regardless of who is under center, RB Derrick Henry remains the key cog of the Ravens’ offense. Henry has carried the ball 89 times for 374 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and a league-high 7 TDs this season.
The Ravens will face a significant challenge against a Falcons offense that has really found itself of late. However, Baltimore’s defense has recorded a -0.07 EPA per play in 2026, sitting 10th in the league.
The impact of Penix is difficult to overstate. That includes the Falcons sitting 2-0 against the spread since Penix took over as the team’s starting QB in Week 3.
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Ravens vs. Falcons Prediction on Spread for Sunday Night Football – 10/11/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Ravens vs. Falcons prediction on the spread for Sunday, October 11.
- The Falcons have a 48.4% rate on offensive plays this season (seventh), per RBSDM.
- Atlanta ranks second in rushing yards per game (181.0), with a backfield led by RB Bijan Robinson. Robinson has been sensational, and RB Brian Robinson has also posted a 0.19 EPA/rush, rushing for 163 yards and 4 TDs in his past three games.
- Penix's return has drastically improved the offense in the Falcons’ last two games. WR Drake London has benefited most from Penix’s return, catching 14 of 16 targets for 290 yards over his last two contests.
- Ravens RB Derrick Henry has racked up 7 rushing TDs this season, but it could be tough sledding running the football against the Falcons’ run defense. Atlanta allows the fewest rushing yards per game (48.3) and is recording a league-best -0.28 EPA/rush.
- In 16 career starts, QB Tyler Huntley has completed 64.5% of his passes for 2,511 yards and 10 TDs, while being intercepted 9 times. Huntley has also been sacked 42 times in those starts.
- The Falcons allow opposing QBs a 40.7% dropback success rate this season.
Make your Ravens vs. Falcons picks now for Sunday’s NFL game.
Ravens vs. Falcons Picks, Player Stats for SNF on PrizePicks: 10/11/26
Here are the top Ravens vs. Falcons picks to target on Sunday, October 11. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Bijan Robinson and Zay Flowers.
Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Falcons: 69.5 Receiving Yards
- Flowers has hauled in 18 passes for 352 yards and 2 TDs in just three games this season.
- The Ravens wideout has registered a 30.1% target share this season, which is third among NFL WRs.
- Ranking second across the NFL behind only Falcons WR Drake London, Flowers has recorded 165 yards after the catch.
- The speedy WR has racked up 84+ receiving yards in each of his three games in 2026.
- The Falcons have been more vulnerable through the air, allowing the third-most passing yards per game (264.8).
Add Zay Flowers + Ravens to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Ravens: 88.5 Rush Yards
- Robinson has registered the second-most rushing yards (494) in the NFL, behind only Kansas City Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker (537). The Falcons RB ranks third in yards per carry (5.8) on the year.
- The former Texas Longhorn has the fourth-most carries (85) among NFL RBs.
- Ranking 13th among RBs, Robinson has tallied a 64.8% snap share.
- According to SumerSports, the former first-round pick leads the league in yards after contact (400).
- The Ravens are more susceptible to the run game, allowing -0.08 EPA/rush in 2026.
Add Bijan Robinson + Falcons to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Make Ravens vs. Falcons Picks on PrizePicks
The Atlanta Falcons have looked like one of the NFL’s top offenses with QB Michael Penix Jr. leading the way. Can Atlanta continue its stellar play against a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens squad on Sunday night?
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