The Baltimore Ravens open their 2026 campaign with an away matchup against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Ravens enter as 3.5-point road favorites over the Colts on PrizePicks; Sunday’s game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
Both teams finished 8-9 and missed the postseason in 2025, but the two have fairly different outlooks for the new year.
The Ravens still boast a two-time MVP at QB and are among the favorites to win the Super Bowl. They’re returning a 10x payout to lift the Lombardi Trophy on PrizePicks. On the other hand, the Colts will be relying on QB Daniel Jones as their signal-caller, and he's had an up-and-down career and tore his Achilles last December. Indy enters 2026 with muted expectations.
Below, we’ll break down our Ravens vs. Colts prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread, over/under, and PrizePicks player projections for Week 1.
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Ravens vs. Colts Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13
Following their underwhelming year, Baltimore moved on from longtime head coach John Harbaugh this offseason and hired Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to return to the franchise as its new leader. It’s a fresh start for a team that’s yet to reach the Super Bowl with QB Lamar Jackson.
Baltimore’s offense was just okay in 2025, ranking 13th in both EPA/play (0.037) and success rate (44.6%, per RBSDM. Much of this had to do with Jackson missing four games due to injury and playing much of the season at less than 100%.
If Jackson can stay healthy this year, this offense should bounce back in a big way. Lamar isn’t far removed from spearheading an attack in 2024 that led the NFL in EPA/play (0.199) and was second in success rate (49.4%).
In addition to Jackson, Baltimore still has stud RB Derrick Henry, who enters his age-32 season but showed little sign of slowing down last season, producing 1745 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs while staying healthy for all 17 games. The Ravens clearly remain high on WR Zay Flowers following a four-year, $140 million contract extension, so he’ll continue to be locked in as their top wideout.
Further fueling optimism were rave reviews about new OC Declan Doyle this offseason, whom Jackson is excited to work with. Doyle is calling plays for the first time but was previously offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears under Ben Johnson.
The Ravens could also see a glow-up on defense after ranking 18th in EPA/play (0.025) and 16th in success rate (44.3%). Most notably, the team signed EDGE Trey Hendrickson to improve a pass rush that managed the fifth-worst pressure rate (19.0%) in 2025, per Pro Football Reference.
Having a defensive-minded head coach in Minter could also provide a boost. As the Chargers’ DC, he helped the Bolts finish inside the top six in defensive EPA/play in each of the past two seasons. With the potential to be strong on both sides of the ball, it’s no wonder the Ravens are considered a Super Bowl contender.
Meanwhile, the Colts come into Week 1 with far more questions.
Through eight games, Indianapolis was the story of the NFL, going 7-1 while leading the league with an absurd 0.231 EPA/play behind a resurgent Jones. However, their season unraveled soon after, as the Colts would only win one of their last nine games and Jones would tear his Achilles in Week 14.
What began as a promising campaign would crash out with a seven-game losing skid and 44-year-old Philip Rivers starting at QB.
Jones is already back for Week 1, but there’s no telling what level he’ll be able to play at just nine months after such a serious injury. If nothing else, leading the league in EPA/play for an eight-week stretch doesn't seem likely to repeat itself.
On the bright side, the Colts still have dynamic RB Jonathan Taylor, who racked up 1,963 scrimmage yards and 20 total TDs in 2025. The offensive line could be a strength as well. Taylor figures to be the focal point of this offense.
Defensively, Indianapolis was mediocre at best, ranking 16th in EPA/play (0.013) and 23rd in success rate (45.7%).
Having both CB Sauce Gardner and CB Charvarius Ward healthy could form a strong duo in the secondary, and the defensive line has some promising pieces. Overall, there’s some potential for improvement, though this figures to still be a middle-of-the-pack defense again.
Ravens vs. Colts Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 13
The Ravens enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point road favorites against the Colts, returning a 1.56x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
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Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Ravens vs. Colts Prediction on Spread – 9/13/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Ravens vs. Colts prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 13.
- When all is said and done, the Ravens should be the far more successful team of the two. However, opening on the road under a new coaching staff isn’t ideal, and there could be some growing pains out of the gate.
- While the Ravens should have an improved offense, the O-line has question marks and the team also lacks depth at wide receiver. PFF ranks Baltimore’s offensive line and receiving corps in the bottom third of the league entering the season.
- While the Colts’ offense is expected to regress, it could fall off a sizable amount and still be an above-average unit. Despite Jones’ injury and a poor second half, it still finished the season seventh in both EPA/play (0.083) and success rate (46.7%). Most of the key pieces return in 2026.
- Indianapolis scored 38 points on the road against the Chargers last season when Minter was still the defensive coordinator.
Make your Ravens vs. Colts picks now for Sunday's NFL game.
Ravens vs. Colts Picks, Player Stats for Week 1 on PrizePicks: 9/13/26
Here are the top Ravens vs. Colts picks to target on Sunday, September 13. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Zay Flowers, and QB Daniel Jones.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor vs. Ravens: 77.5 Rush Yards
- Taylor averaged 19.0 carries and 93.5 rushing yards per game in 2025.
- Among RBs with at least 100 carries last season, Taylor ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.52).
- PFF ranks the Colts’ offensive line fourth overall entering the year. The Indianapolis O-line also ranked seventh in run block win rate in 2025, per ESPN.
- Ravens DL Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) played just two games last season and has been limited in practice this week. Even if he plays, he could be on a limited snap count, which may hurt the Ravens’ ability to stop Taylor in the run game.
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Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Colts: 65.5 Rec Yards
- In 2025, Flowers averaged 71.2 receiving yards per game.
- Among receivers with at least 100 routes run, he ranked 11th in target share (29.0%) and fifth in yards per route run (2.53), per SumerSports.
- Flowers finished with 1,211 receiving yards last season. No other player on the team reached even 500, with the next-highest being TE Mark Andrews (422).
- The top pass-catchers behind Flowers will be Andrews, WR Rashod Bateman, and WR Ja'Kobi Lane. Bateman is coming off a season where he averaged 2.9 targets per game, and Lane is a rookie.
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Colts QB Daniel Jones vs. Ravens: 32.5 Pass Attempts
- Last season, Jones logged 33+ pass attempts in just four of his 12 completed starts. While he maxed out with 50 attempts in Week 9, in the other three cases he tallied 33-34 attempts.
- With Jones only nine months removed from his Achilles injury, the Colts could elect to rely heavily on their run game to ease him back in.
- The Colts averaged 59.9 plays per game in 2025, which ranked 23rd in the NFL.
- Indianapolis is playing at home as slight underdogs. That suggests they may be unlikely to find themselves in a deep hole that forces them to air it out on Sunday.
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The Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts are coming off campaigns that ultimately ended in disappointment. Which team will begin their 2026 season on a high note?
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