The Las Vegas Raiders selected Fernando Mendoza first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft with the hopes that he would be the long-term solution to their QB problem.
Then, as most teams do, they locked down a veteran QB, in hopes that he can serve as a stopgap starter and mentor Mendoza. In this case, that QB was Kirk Cousins, who was signed to a 5-year, $172 million contract, aiming to not force the former 2025 Heisman winner into NFL action right away.
All signs are pointing towards Kirk Cousins being named the Raiders' starting QB for Week 1. However, HC Klint Kubiak has left the door open, stating that “We got another week. I don’t want anyone to be comfortable in their job.”
Let's dig into who will be the Raiders starting QB in Week 1 of the NFL season, including the favorite to win the job, according to payouts on PrizePicks Team Picks.
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Who Will be the Raiders' Starting QB in Week 1? Mendoza or Cousins?
Payouts listed on PrizePicks Team Picks under "Starting QB" have Kirk Cousins as a massive favorite to win the Raiders' starting QB job for Week 1, returning a 1.07x payout on “Yes”.
“Yes” on Mendoza to be starting come Week 1 is a long shot as of writing, returning a 6.25x payout, while “No” returns a 1.07x payout.
It sure seems like it may not just take a herculean performance from Mendoza in the third preseason game — and also a disastrous outing by QB Kirk Cousins — for the Raiders to change their approach to their Week 1 starting QB.
How has Fernando Mendoza fared in Preseason Games so far?
Cousins has played one series so far in the 2026 preseason, going 5-for-6 for 50 yards and a TD on the Raiders' opening drive. The first sign that Cousins may be the clear favorite for the starting job may be just how little he's played compared to the rookie.
In that game, Cousins gave way to Mendoza for two quarters, where he went 10-of-16 for 97 yards and a TD. He took one sack and finished the outing with a 100.3 rating.
Mendoza’s second outing wasn’t as clean as his first.
With Cousins and many other starters sitting out the game, Mendoza started and played the first half. He finished with a total of five drives, completing 8-of-15 passes for 86 yards and a pick-six, which put the Raiders down 14-0.
Do First-Overall QBs Typically Start in Week 1?
The last five quarterbacks drafted first overall are: Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow.
All five of these quarterbacks got their first start in Week 1 of their rookie season.
The Raiders seem to be leaning towards a more old-school approach with their rookie quarterback, hoping he can learn behind Cousins at the start of the season, before perhaps handing the reins to him once the season is presumably lost and the pressure is off.
The Raiders open their season on Sunday, Sept. 13, with a winnable home game against the Miami Dolphins, whose payout to win 5+ games this season is 2.07x on PrizePicks — less than 50% implied probability.
This could give the Week 1 starter some momentum heading into a gauntlet, with five of the Raiders' next six games against teams that finished 2025 with a .500 record or better.
It's not just Mendoza's pedigree that makes it seem likely he takes over the job at some point — others agree. PrizePicks has Mendoza's regular-season games started projection set at 8.5, which you can pick More or Less on in the app.
Pick More or Less on Fernando Mendoza games started on PrizePicks now
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While Kirk Cousins will likely start Week 1 vs. Miami, Mendoza seems primed to start his fair share of games for the Silver and Black during the 2026 season.
Will he start more than 8.5 games? Or will Cousins serve the Raiders well enough to ride him for the entire season? That may come down to how the Raiders fare early in the year
Don’t wait until Week 1 — make your Raiders QB predictions on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Week 1 of the NFL regular season begins on September 9, and the NFL board is already open on PrizePicks Team Picks. That includes NFL predictions for the Super Bowl winner, divisional winners, win totals, and more — available in 36 states!
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily NFL news and preseason predictions and picks as the 2026 regular season approaches.
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