The lightweight sparks are set to fly at UFC 325 on Paramount+ tonight, as striking phenom Rafael Fiziev will go head-to-head Brazilian up‑and‑comer Mauricio Ruffy in a fiery featured bout that promises fireworks from the opening horn.
We’ll break down what’s at stake in this fight between Fiziev vs. Ruffy — the seasoned Muay Thai technician vs. the hungry new blood of the division.
Can Ruffy rise to the challenge against an elite striker like Fiziev, or will “Ataman” remind the world why he remains one of the most dangerous men at 155 pounds?
Find our Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction and UFC 325 expert pick for Saturday's featured bout below, including PrizePicks UFC picks and key stats for this UFC lightweight matchup.
You can predict UFC winners on PrizePicks Team Picks and earn money if you're right, including on Fiziev vs. Ruffy, now available in 30 states.
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Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction, UFC 325 Preview
Lightweight contender Rafael Fiziev arrives at UFC 325 as a striking tactician with a resume stacked against elite lightweight competition.
"Ataman" has showcased his world‑class Muay Thai, explosive combinations, and devastating body kicks that systematically break down opponents over time.
Fiziev's slick head movement and precise counter-striking allow him to thrive in high‑paced exchanges where timing separates the elite from pretenders. Expect him to dictate the pace with technical superiority and measured aggression.
Mauricio Ruffy enters as one of Brazil's most explosive emerging prospects. He's impressed with sharp boxing, creative striking, and composure that belies his experience level against top‑tier talent.
However, Ruffy faces the most skilled and proven striker to date in Fiziev. If Ruffy can maintain his volume, establish his offense early, and avoid getting caught in extended exchanges, he could pull off the big win and make a statement at UFC 325.
UFC 325: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy Payouts on PrizePicks
Rafael Fiziev enters this lightweight matchup as the slight underdog, returning a 1.92x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if he wins.
Mauricio Ruffy comes into this showdown as the favorite with a 1.78x payout if he wins, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
According to users on the PrizePicks app, the fight is favored to go the distance (three rounds).
Fight Winner Payout: Rafael Fiziev 1.88x ($100 pays out $188) | Mauricio Ruffy 1.81x
To Go The Distance: Yes 1.58x | No 2.12x
Most Likely Method of Victory: Rafael Fiziev by Decision (Lowest payout: 2.77x)
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction for UFC 325
Here are some UFC stats to help you make your Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction in this lightweight fight at UFC 325 on Paramount+.
- Fiziev boasts a 90 percent takedown defense, one of the highest rates in the lightweight division, which allows him to keep this fight on his feet.
- The 32‑year‑old Azerbaijani‑born fighter has faced elite competition throughout his UFC tenure, including two fights against Justin Gaethje, a knockout win over Rafael dos Anjos, and a battle with Ignacio Bahamondes.
- Fiziev averages 4.77 significant strikes landed per minute and has scored eight knockouts in 13 career wins, with highlight‑reel finishes over Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano.
- Ruffy enters with exceptional striking accuracy at 57 percent — higher than Fiziev's 52 percent — and strong defensive metrics at 60 percent striking defense.
- The 29‑year‑old Brazilian has finished 11 of his 12 career wins by knockout, including eight first‑round stoppages and a 2025 Knockout of the Year contender with his spinning wheel kick finish of King Green.
Fiziev vs. Ruffy Start Time, How to Watch UFC 325
Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
Time: Main Card – 9 p.m. ET | Gaethje vs. Pimblett Start Time – 10:30 p.m. ET (estimate)
Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
TV: Paramount+
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy Tale of the Tape
Here are the key stats to know for Fiziev vs. Ruffy in the UFC 325 .
Rafael Fiziev Stats for UFC 325
Overall Record: 13-4
UFC Record: 7-4
Last 5 Fights: 2-3
Height: 5’8"
Reach: 71”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.77
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 0.89
Last Fight: Win vs. Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision
Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Mauricio Ruffy Stats for UFC 325
Overall Record: 12-2
UFC Record: 3-1
Last 5 Fights: 4-1
Height: 5’11"
Reach: 75”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.84
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 0.00
Last Fight: Loss vs. Benoit Saint-Denis by Submission in Round 2
Finishes: 11 (11 KO/TKO)
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Fiziev vs. Ruffy Pick for UFC 325
Here is our expert UFC 325 prediction and pick for Fiziev vs. Ruffy featherweight title fight. All picks are available via PrizePicks MMA board.
Fiziev vs. Ruffy Pick: Mauricio Ruffy – 48.5 Significant Strikes
- Mauricio Ruffy lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute across his UFC career with an average fight time of 8:54.
- The Brazilian has landed a combined 171 significant strikes (34.2 average) across his five UFC appearances, including three first-round finishes that limited his total output.
- Ruffy has competed in just one UFC fight that went the full three-round distance —against James Llontop at UFC 309 — where he landed 67 significant strikes.
- Against Fiziev's below-average striking defense (50 percent), which ranks among the lowest in the lightweight division, Ruffy's 57 percent striking accuracy and patient pressure create opportunities to exceed his projection.
Make Your Fiziev vs. Ruffy Picks on PrizePicks
The lightweight featured fight pits 11-fight UFC veteran and Tiger Muay Thai standout Rafael Fiziev against The Fighting Nerds' Mauricio Ruffy in a striker’s delight that will deliver for the fans on the main UFC 325 card.
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy will be broadcast live on Paramount+ from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, this Saturday, January 31.
You can win real money by locking in your UFC 325 predictions on PrizePicks — from the first fight of the night all the way to the featherweight title fight. Pick your fighters, and win cash if you're right.
You can also predict winners in every UFC fight on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued UFC picks, predictions, and news.
