Purdue vs. Arizona Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/28/26

Two national semifinal spots are up for grabs on Saturday, March 28, as two regional final battles are on the NCAA Tournament schedule. Following No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 3 Illinois, the No. 2 seed Purdue Boilermakers (30-8) collide with the No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats (35-2) at 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV.

Purdue is on a seven-game winning streak, while Arizona has tallied 12 straight victories. Who will maintain its scorching hot streak on Saturday? PrizePicks Team Picks tabs the Wildcats as 5.5-point favorites for the West regional final.

Below, we’ll make a Purdue vs. Arizona prediction on the spread for college basketball projections on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.

{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Purdue vs. Arizona Prediction, Spread, Over/Under

The Boilermakers escaped with a 79-77 win vs. No. 11 seed Texas thanks to a game-winning tip-in from Purdue F Trey Kaufman-Renn. After failing to cover the 8.5-point spread in the Round of 16, Purdue is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in the tournament.

Arizona set a program record for the most points in an NCAA Tournament game in its 109-88 win over No. 4 seed Arkansas on Thursday night, shooting a blistering 63.8% from the field. The Wildcats are also 2-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, failing to cover a 12.5-point spread in their 12-point win vs. No. 9 Utah State in the second round.

Since 2007, the programs have met three times, and the Boilermakers are 3-0 outright and ATS in the split. Will Purdue continue that success for regional final picks?

Purdue vs. Arizona Spread, Over/Under

Purdue is a clear underdog for Saturday night with a 3.12x payout if it wins, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.

According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Arizona is a 5.5-point favorite and holds a 1.38x payout for an outright win today.

• Spread: Arizona Wildcats -5.5 
• Over/Under: 152.5
• Gamer Winner Payout: Purdue 3.12x | Arizona 1.38x

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Purdue vs. Arizona Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/28/26

Two elite frontcourts will collide on Saturday night, but the Wildcats could have the height advantage. Arizona F Ivan Kharchenkov (6’7”), F Koa Peat (6’8”), and C Motiejus Krivas (7’2”) form a towering starting frontcourt, while Wildcat F Tobe Awaka (6’8”) comes off the bench.

In comparison, Purdue’s three tallest starters are G Fletcher Loyer (6’5”), F Trey Kaufman-Renn (6’9”), and C Oscar Cluff (6’11”). Kharchenkov and Krivas could tout notable height advantages, continuing to feed Arizona’s 55.3% 2-point percentage (90th percentile).

According to Bart Torvik, the Wildcats sit in the 78th and 76th percentiles of dunk and close-2 shot distributions. The Boilermakers, meanwhile, surrender a 53.3% 2-point percentage on defense (32nd percentile).

Kaufman-Renn (14.3 PPG) and Cluff (10.5 PPG) give Purdue an inside scoring presence, but Arizona cedes a 29.1% close-2 shot distribution (98th percentile), while opponents shoot only 44.2% on 2-pointers (99th percentile).

This is perhaps the best interior defense in college basketball, anchored by Krivas’ elite 4.88 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (eighth-best nationally), per EvanMiya.

The Boilermakers may need to lean on their 9.2 made 3-pointers per game (83rd percentile). But the Wildcats are a tough nut to crack across the board, yielding a 30.9% 3-point percentage (92nd percentile).

Bart Torvik ranks Purdue 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Arizona is second in the category. Similar to most U of A’s opponents, the Boilermakers may stumble vs. the Wildcats’ massive frontcourt and elite defense.

Make Purdue vs. Arizona Picks on PrizePicks

Following a historic performance vs. Arkansas in the Round of 16, will Arizona continue its march to the national semifinals on Saturday? Purdue has a tall task ahead against one of the nation’s most imposing frontcourts.

Make your Purdue vs. Arizona picks and NCAA Tournament predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.

You can make NCAA Tournament picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states. 

Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.