Portugal hopes to silence critics and legitimize their chances of winning the 2026 World Cup in Thursday, July 2’s Round of 32 matchup vs. Croatia, kicking off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
PrizePicks Team Picks gives Portugal a 1.36x payout to advance against a tough Croatia opponent. Seleção das Quinas are certainly paying for finishing second in Group K, with the winner, Colombia, facing Ghana in comparison.
Following draws against DR Congo and Colombia in the group stage, will Thursday mark Portugal’s first win on their march to their nation’s first World Cup title? Who could Portugal play in the knockout stage, including the World Cup Final?
Below, we’ll look at Portugal’s path to the World Cup Final, including projections for Portugal to qualify to each round on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
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Note: Within this article, we’ll use the WorldCup2026Predictions.app to show the most likely opponents in each round.
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Who Will Portugal Play in the Round of 32?
- Opponent: Croatia
- Date, Kickoff Time: Thursday, July 2, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: BMO Field (Toronto Stadium), Toronto, Canada
- To Advance Payouts: Portugal 1.36x | Croatia 2.94x
- Spread: Portugal -1.5 (2.77x)
- Total: 2.5 (Over - 1.72x | Under - 2.04x)
- Payouts via PrizePicks Team Picks — subject to change
Following two draws in the group stage, a tough Round of 32 matchup awaits Portugal. FIFA rankings place Croatia 13th — only five spots behind Portugal (eighth).
Croatia is familiar with advancing far in this tournament, including a runner-up finish in the 2018 World Cup and finishing third in the 2022 World Cup. The 40-year-old MF Luka Modric and MF Mateo Kovacic are the heartbeat of this team that looks to slow the tempo with possession.
Croatia can be slow, making them vulnerable to speed. Opta Analyst credits the Vatreni with 4.39 expected goals conceded (25th) and 4.33 shots on target per match (tied for 20th-most).
Plus, Croatia has tallied only 2.77 xG (30th) despite scoring 5 total goals through three matches. Meanwhile, Portugal has yielded only 2.81 xG (12th).
Seleção das Quinas should have the midfield advantage thanks to Vitinha and João Neves, who is expected to return to the starting lineup on Thursday. If Portugal is controlling the tempo of this match with their 62.2% average possession (seventh), advancing feels likely.
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World Cup Round of 16: Who Will Portugal Play in the Next Game?
- Potential Opponents: Spain (90%), Austria (10%)
- Date, Kickoff Time: Monday, July 6, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Dallas Stadium), Arlington, Texas
- Portugal to Qualify for World Cup Round of 16: Yes 1.36x | No 2.94x
If Portugal advances, they will likely be tasked with facing one of the tournament’s best teams, Spain. PrizePicks Team Picks gives La Roja a 1.09x payout to advance vs. Austria on Thursday.
Spain’s ability to dominate the ball with a 69.4% average possession (first) would be a major concern for Portugal. This is a high-quality midfield with Pedri and Rodri, who could rival Portugal's Vitinha and Neves
Opta Analyst gives Spain a 91.0% pass success rate (third), which is narrowly behind Portugal’s 91.2% (second). Each team utilizes a high-press system, with Spain logging 17.67 pressed sequences per match (second), compared to Portugal’s 13.00 (ninth).
Portugal’s 16.22% conversion rate on the attack has a notable cushion above Spain’s 9.09%. If Seleção das Quinas can stay close in possession, perhaps an advantage in finishing shots could take them to the finish line.
The world’s best left back, Nuno Mendes, gives Portugal perhaps their best shot of taking down the heavyweight Spain. Mendes is as good of a matchup as you could ask for against the elite right winger Lamine Yamal.
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Portugal’s World Cup Quarterfinals Opponent: Belgium Most Likely
- Potential Opponents: Belgium (58%), United States (42%)
- Date, Kickoff Time: Friday, July 10, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles Stadium), Inglewood, California
- Portugal to Qualify for World Cup Quarterfinals: Yes 2.63x | No 1.42x
The quarterfinals could arguably provide Portugal with their most favorable matchup of the knockout stage.
Our World Cup Power Rankings entering the knockout stage placed Belgium 21st and the United States 10th. Belgium may have the edge over the USA for Monday’s Round of 16 match, as USMNT ST Folarin Balogun is expected to serve a one-game suspension for Wednesday night’s red card.
Each squad likes to keep the ball, proven by Belgium’s 57.6% average possession (13th) and USMNT’s 57.1% mark (14th). Further, Belgium has posted 15.75 pressed sequences per match (fourth), which slightly trails the USA’s 16.25 (third).
If Portugal gets past Spain, they’d be facing another high-press system but against a lesser opponent. Seleção das Quinas’ high passing accuracy (91.2%) would likely give them the tools to break Belgium or the United States.
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Who Could Portugal Play in the World Cup Semifinals?
- Potential Opponents: France (71%), Morocco (20%), Canada (6%)
- Date, Kickoff Time: Tuesday, July 14, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Dallas Stadium), Arlington, Texas
- Portugal to Qualify for World Cup Semifinals: Yes 3.7x | No 1.23x
For the World Cup semifinals, France (71%) and Morocco (20%) are seen as the most probable opponents. France has a 1.06x payout to advance vs. Paraguay, and Morocco is also favored in the Round of 16 with a 1.31x payout to advance vs. Canada.
A quarterfinals battle between France and Morocco would be must-watch TV, as both nations appeared in the 2022 World Cup semifinals. Either team would be a tall task, as the French top FIFA rankings, while Morocco is sixth.
France’s attack has simply been unstoppable by totaling 9.20 xG (first), 8.50 shots on target per match (first), and a 17.81% conversion rate (eighth). ST Kylian Mbappé sports 6 goals over four fixtures, while AM Michael Olise already has 5 assists. Keep in mind, the World Cup career assist record is 8.
Morocco’s 61.7% average possession (ninth) and 89.2% pass success rate (seventh) would be a strong test for Portugal. Right back Achraf Hakimi, who is Nuno Mendes’ club teammate at Paris Saint-Germain, is Morocco’s top player and often moves up the pitch on the attack.
Similar to a potential meeting with Lamine Yamal and Spain, Mendes at left back would provide a lot of comfort in this potential clash with Hakimi.
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World Cup Final: Will Portugal Play Argentina?
- Potential Opponents: Argentina (39%), Brazil (21%), England (14%)
- Date, Kickoff Time: Sunday, July 19, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium (New York New Jersey Stadium) in East Rutherford, New Jersey
- Portugal to Qualify for World Cup Final: Yes 6.25x | No 1.09x
- Portugal to Win World Cup: Yes 10x | No 1.03x
If Portugal can get to the World Cup Final, most fans will be hoping for a matchup against Lionel Messi and Argentina. This would pit two of the sport’s GOATs in what’s likely their final World Cup.
Messi would be chasing his second consecutive World Cup title, while Cristiano Ronaldo looks to lift his nation, Portugal, to their first World Cup victory. Truly, this would go down as one of the most anticipated World Cup matches of all time.
But what about the actual battle on the pitch? Argentina has a stubborn, disciplined defense that’s permitted only 1.61 xG (second) and 0.67 shots on target per match (first).
La Albiceleste’s 5.75 xG on the attack (13th) is also above average, led by Messi’s 6 goals in three matches entering the Round of 32. Argentina’s 90.5% pass success rate (fourth) could help crack Portugal’s pressing sequences as well.
Finding a way to score against Argentina’s disciplined 4-4-2 would likely be Portugal’s greatest challenge.
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Will Ronaldo go out in style by helping his nation finally win a World Cup? If that’s the case, Portugal may have to go through the likes of Luka Modric and Croatia, Spain led by Lamine Yamal, a loaded French team, and the defending champions Argentina anchored by Lionel Messi.
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