The 2026 MLB season kicks off for the majority of the league on Thursday, March 26. The New York Mets are slated to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Opening Day at 1:15 p.m. ET, live on NBC and Peacock.
The Pirates went 4-2 against the Mets during the 2025 season. Pirates SP Paul Skenes (3.03 xFIP in 2025) vs. Mets SP Freddy Peralta (3.58 home xFIP with the Brewers) could be an exciting duel on the mound today.
Below, we’ll break down our Pirates vs. Mets prediction and picks for today’s game. Make your MLB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Mets vs. Pirates Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, March 26
The Mets had the best record (45-24) in the majors on June 13 and held a 5.5-game lead in the NL East. However, New York finished 38-55 over the final 93 games and ultimately missed the playoffs.
After suffering one of the worst collapses in recent memory, the Mets made significant changes to their roster this past winter. The team upgraded its infield with the addition of 3B Bo Bichette and 1B Jorge Polanco.
The Mets also made additions to their stable of pitching, acquiring SP Freddy Peralta in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, while signing CL Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million contract to replace CL Edwin Diaz.
Following another losing campaign in 2025, it's now been a 10-year playoff drought for the Pirates. Pittsburgh finished the 2025 season with a 71-91 record, marking the seventh straight under .500 season.
Pittsburgh made quite a splash during the offseason, landing OF Marcell Ozuna and RF Ryan O’Hearn in free agency, while acquiring 2B Brandon Lowe in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Adding the likes of Lowe, Ozuna, and O’Hearn could provide a huge boost to a Pirates lineup that slashed .231/.305/.350 last season, ranking near the bottom of the majors in all three categories.
Pirates vs. Mets Spread, Over/Under
The Pirates are road underdogs today, returning a 1.96x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Mets are home favorites and return a 1.81x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: New York Mets -1.5 (2.77x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 Runs (2.17x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Pirates 1.96x | Mets 1.81x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Pirates vs. Mets Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Pirates vs. Mets injury report for Opening Day, via MLB.com.
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
- RP Chris Devenski (head): OUT
- SP Jared Jones (UCL): 60-day IL
New York Mets Injury Report
- LP A.J. Minter (back): 15-day IL
- OF Mike Tauchman (knee): OUT
- RP Justin Hagenman (rib): 60-day IL
- RP Dedniel Nunez (elbow): 60-day IL
- SP Tylor Megill (Tommy John): 60-day IL
- RP Reed Garrett (Tommy John): 60-day IL
Pirates vs. Mets Prediction to Win – Thursday, March 26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Pirates vs. Mets prediction on the 1.5-run spread for Opening Day, on PrizePicks.
- The Mets had a 9-2 against the spread (ATS) record as a road underdog in 2025, producing a 81.8% cover rate.
- The Pirates were 4-10 against the run line as a road favorite during the 2025 season.
- New York finished fifth in home runs (224) in 2025.
- Pittsburgh’s offense struggled mightily throughout the 2025 season, as the Pirates registered the 29th-ranked wRC+ (75) in road games, per FanGraphs.
- Mets SP Freddy Peralta has a 4-2 career record in addition to a 3.85 xFIP and 116 strikeouts in 25 career appearances vs. the Pirates.
- Peralta has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts vs. Pittsburgh.
- The Pirates have won five of the last seven head-to-head meetings by at least two runs, dating back to the 2024 season.
- Pirates SP Paul Skenes has two career starts vs. the Mets, recording a 1-0 record with a 2.08 ERA and 14 strikeouts across 13.0 innings in that split.
- According to FanGraphs, the Pirates ace produced 10.93 K/9, a 2.94 xFIP, and a 45.8% ground ball percentage in 96.1 road innings last year.
- The newly-acquired Lowe recorded a wRC+ of 157 vs. right-handed pitchers in road games, while also walking a career-high 10.2% of the time.
Pirates vs. Mets Picks for PrizePicks on MLB Opening Day
Here are two of the top Pirates vs. Mets picks to consider for MLB Opening Day on NBC/Peacock. Today's PrizePicks MLB player picks feature Pirates SP Paul Skenes and Mets 1B Brett Baty.
Pirates SP Paul Skenes vs. Mets Projection: 16 Pitching Outs
- Ranking as one of MLB's best pitchers, Skenes recorded at least 16 pitching outs in 22 of his 32 starts during the 2025 season.
- The Pirates ace pitched at least six innings in each of his two career starts vs. the Mets.
- According to Baseball Savant, Skenes registered a fastball velocity of 98.1 mph in 2025, ranking in the 95th percentile.
- Per FanGraphs, batters produced a 40.1% hard hit rate when facing Skenes in 2025.
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Mets 1B Brett Baty vs. Pirates Projection: 0.5 Total Bases
- Baty averaged 1.32 total bases per game during the 2025 season.
- The Mets' first baseman registered a 12.8% barrel percentage in 2025, ranking in the 80th percentile.
- Baty also recorded a career-high 46.7% hard hit percentage a season ago.
- Baty belted a career-high 18 home runs in 130 games, with 12 of those coming at Citi Field.
Make Your Pirates vs. Mets Prediction on PrizePicks
Opening Day of the 2026 MLB season takes place on Thursday, with the Mets hosting the Pirates. New York will be looking to put its epic 2025 regular-season collapse behind itself, while Pittsburgh will aim to reach the postseason for the first time in a decade.
You can make Pirates vs. Mets picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick MLB players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. And with Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
