The PGA Tour moves to Orlando, Fla., for a Signature Event: The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, with the first round starting on Thursday, March 5.
72 golfers will tee it up on Thursday and Friday, with the top 50, ties, and anyone within 10 shots of the lead advancing to the weekend.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a true test of golf from tee-to-green, where we will be looking for the cream to rise to the top with accurate driving, a strong iron game, and the ability to scramble to save par.
Below, we'll break down our Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round picks, including first-round leader picks for PrizePicks Team Picks and golfer projections on strokes and birdies from Player Picks.
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2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Picks: Thursday, March 5
One of the top non-majors of the season features 38 of the top 40-ranked golfers in the world teeing it up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, starting with the first round on Thursday.
The event is a PGA Tour Signature Event, with a total purse of $20M.
Here are the payout projections for the top 10 golfers to be the first-round leader at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
PGA futures payouts are live as of publishing, but are subject to change.
Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Winner Payouts
Scottie Scheffler - 10x Payout ($100 pays $1,000)
Rory McIlroy - 16.66x
Tommy Fleetwood - 22.22x
Xander Schauffele - 22.22x
Collin Morikawa - 22.22x
Cameron Young - 22.22x
Si Woo Kim 22.22x
Russell Henley - 22.22x
Harry English - 22.22x
Jake Knapp - 33.33x
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks for First Round
Here are two golfers to consider for your Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round picks on PrizePicks Team Picks, plus projections from PrizePicks Player Picks projections.
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy First Round Leader Payout: Yes - 16.66x Payout
Rory McIlroy First Round Projections: 71 strokes, 4 Birdies or Better, 11.5 Greens in Regulation, 8.5 Fairways hit
- Rory McIlroy was the first-round leader at this event in 2021 (shot 65) and 2022 (shot 66).
- He has held the first-round lead in two of four worldwide events this season.
- The Northern Irishman is averaging a 69.3 in the first round at this event over last eight appearances.
- McIlroy is fifth on PGA Tour in first-round scoring this year (67.0) and was in top 20 last year.
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Corey Conners
Corey Conners Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Payout: Yes - 33.33x Payout
Corey Conners Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Projections: 72.5 strokes, 11.5 Pars, 11.5 Greens in Regulation, 10 Fairways hit
- Cory Conners was co-first round leader with Rory McIlroy in 2021 (shot 65).
- He also finished two back of the first-round leader last year, shooting a 69.
- He is averaging a 70.4 in the first round at Bay Hill, his best of the four rounds.
- The Canadian has two third-place finishes here, including last year. and has also finished in the top-21 three other times.
Make 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks on PrizePicks
The PGA Tour’s Florida swing continues with the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, starting with the first round on Thursday.
Can Rory McIlroy go low again at Bay Hill on Thursday? Or will a long shot jump up and take the first round lead?
You can make your Arnold Palmer Invitational picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 34 states.
Find more PGA Tour picks all season long on PrizePicks Playbook.
