After a week at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, the PGA Tour moves up the road to Orlando for a Signature Event at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge that serves as a tune-up for the upcoming Players Championship and run of four majors.
It's built like a major championship course, often compared to a U.S. Open. The rough is penal, the course is long, and players must be dialed with irons from 200 yards out. There are also water hazards on nine holes, and given that the tournament takes place in Florida, there may even be some wind.
All in all, it's a true test of golf from tee to green. The cream could rise to the top with accurate driving, strong iron play, the ability to scramble, and the consistency to beat a 72-golfer field that features 38 of the top 40-ranked players in the world.
Let's break down our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and predictions for the PGA Tour for PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money if you're right by picking golfers to win, finish top five, top 10, and more.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Predictions, Payouts for PGA Tour
Eight of the last nine winners of the API posted a top-15 finish at the event before their victories.
- 2025: Russell Henley, fourth in 2024
- 2024: Scottie Scheffler, fourth in 2023 and winner in 2022
- 2023: Kurt Kitayama
- 2022: Scheffler, 15th in 2020
- 2021: Bryson DeChambeau, fourth in 2020 and second in 2018
- 2020: Tyrrell Hatton, fourth in 2017
- 2019: Francesco Molinari, seventh in 2017, ninth in 2016 and fifth in 2014
- 2018: Rory McIlroy, fourth in 2017, 11th in 2015
- 2017: Marc Leishman, third in 2011.
Will someone who has done well at Bay Hill before take down the field this weekend? Here are the top 10 favorites to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, via PrizePicks Team Picks, including their payouts if they win the tournament.
- Scottie Scheffler – 4.16x
- Rory McIlroy – 9.09x
- Tommy Fleetwood – 14.28x
- Xander Schauffele – 22.22x
- Collin Morikawa – 22.22x
- Matt Fitzpatrick – 22.22x
- Si Woo Kim – 22.22x
- Russell Henley – 22.22x
- Hideki Matsuyama – 22.22x
- Jake Knapp – 22.22x
All Team Picks payouts are live as of writing and are subject to change.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Purse Payouts
After last week’s Cognizant Classic purse of $9.6 million, we are back to a Signature Event that pays out $20M in money. Here are the top 10 payouts for the weekend:
- First place – $4M
- Second place – $2.2M
- Third place – $1.4M
- Fourth place – $1M
- Fifth place – $840K
- Sixth place – $760K
- Seventh place – $700K
- Eighth place – $646K
- Ninth place – $600K
- 10th place – $556K
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Predictions to Win
Here are four golfers to consider for your 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks on PrizePicks Team Picks. Also listed are payouts for each golfer to win, place in the top five, and top 10.
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy Arnold Palmer Invitational Winner Payout: Yes 9.09x
Top 5 Payout: Yes 3.03x | No 1.31x
Top 10 Payout: Yes 2.04x | No 1.78x
- Rory McIlroy has gained over one stroke per round on approach this season, finishing runner-up two weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational and tied for 14th at Pebble Beach.
- He leads the Tour in shots gained on approach and tee-to-green and is second in shots gained total. The only concern is hitting fairways (65th in accuracy), but when McIlroy does, he has the advantage (22nd in distance).
- Here at the API, Rory has finished in the top 21 in his last nine appearances, which includes a win in 2018 and five other top-10 finishes.
- McIlroy led after the first round at this event in both 2021 and 2022.
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Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick Arnold Palmer Invitational Winner Payout: Yes 16.66x
Top 5 Payout: Yes 5x | No 1.14x
Top 10 Payout: Yes 2.94x | No 1.4x
- Outside of some trouble on the Poa greens out west, Matt Fitzpatrick has been great this season. He owns three straight top-25 finishes, including a ninth-place finish in Phoenix. He also finished last year with four top-10s in his last six events, which included the Open and Scottish Open.
- He leads the Tour in ball striking, is fifth in shots gained tee-to-green, and 12th in Par 5 scoring, one of the key metrics this week at Bay Hill.
- The 2022 U.S. Open Champion has had success in this event, getting runner-up in 2019 as part of four straight top-10s. Overall, he's finished in the top 15 six times and was 22nd last year.
- There's no doubt that Fitzpatrick had issues on greens out west, but not here in Florida, where he's gained strokes putting in every appearance at Bay Hill.
Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama Arnold Palmer Invitational Winner Payout: Yes 22.22x
Top 5 Payout: Yes 6.25x | No 1.08x
Top 10 Payout: Yes 3.7x | No 1.28x
- Hideki Matsuyama leads the field in approach from 200+ yards, where we historically see a third of the shots come from at this event.
- He's first on Tour in scrambling to par, known as a short-game wizard.
- Matsuyama’s results at the Arnold Palmer Invitational aren't as strong as some others, but he does have a tie for sixth among Matsuyama boasts four top-15s this season, including losing in a playoff in Phoenix.
Sepp Straka
Sepp Straka Arnold Palmer Invitational Winner Payout: Yes 33.33x
Top 5 Payout: Yes 10x | No 1.04x
Top 10 Payout: Yes 5.88x | No 1.08x
- Sepp Straka finished fifth here last year, similar to what Henley did (fourth) the year before his win.
- Eight of the last nine Arnold Palmer Invitational champions had a prior finish in the top five of the event.
- The metrics are there with Straka; he's first in approaches from 175-200 yards and 14th from 200+ yards.
- The Austrian was runner-up at Pebble Beach last month and 18th at Phoenix, both against strong fields.
Make PGA Tour Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks on PrizePicks
After a one-week break from Signature Events, we're back to a $20M purse at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with 72 golfers. Can Scheffler fix his Thursday issues and win this event for the third time, or might Rory McIlroy continue his hot start to the season and win his second at Arnie’s Place?
You can make your Arnold Palmer Invitational picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick golfers, predict More or Less on their projected stats, like birdies, round score, and more, and cash in if you’re correct.
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