The emotions of the NFL Playoffs were in full effect for the Broncos last weekend. From the high of securing a spot in the AFC Championship to the low of losing your franchise QB, Box Nix, to a broken ankle — all within 20 minutes.
The Broncos go on with QB Jarrett Stidham at the helm, a former backup to ex-Patriots QB Tom Brady. Stidham will have a chance at revenge vs. his former team, the Patriots, in the AFC Championship. The backup QB taking over has also impacted the over/under for Sunday's championship game.
Patriots vs. Broncos in the AFC Championship kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday from Denver, live on CBS.
Below, we’ll break down our Patriots vs. Broncos over/under prediction for the AFC Championship on PrizePicks. Use PrizePicks Team Picks to make picks on NFL over/unders, spreads, and winners to earn real money if you’re right — now available in 30 states!
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Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under, Spread, Payouts for AFC Championship
The Patriots opened the week as 5.5-point favorites vs. the Broncos. Since then, they have seen significant movement down to 3.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
As the current favorites, the Patriots return a 1.42x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright. The home underdog Broncos return a 2.7x payout if they pull off the upset.
The total opened at 41.5 and has since risen to 43.5 on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: New England Patriots -3.5 (1.81x payout)
- Over/Under: 43.5 (1.96x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Patriots 1.42x | Broncos 2.7x
Team Picks payouts are live as of publishing and are subject to change.
Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction on Over/Under for AFC Championship
Below, we’ll give you a Patriots vs. Broncos pick for the over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks for the AFC Championship Game. Use PrizePicks to make NFL picks and earn money if you’re right.
- New England is 12-7 (63.2%) to the over this year, including the playoffs. That's the second-best mark in the league.
- A lot has been made of the Patriots' defense in two postseason games. They have racked up an absurd 72 pressures and 9 sacks through two games.
- The market may be overrating the Patriots' defensive performance in two home postseason games — it was ranked 11th in expected points added (EPA) per play (the worst of all remaining teams) in the regular season, despite facing the 32nd-ranked strength of schedule.
- The Broncos are PFF’s No. 1 rated offensive line; the Broncos also rank eighth in pass-block win rate (68%) and fourth in run-block win rate (74%), per ESPN.
- Last week, the Patriots feasted on the Texans' offensive line that ranks 30th in pass-block win rate, and 32nd in run-block win rate.
- The Patriots will also be missing OLB Harold Landry III, who leads the team in sacks with 8.5 on the year.
- Broncos HC Sean Payton has always prioritized the backup QB position. Over his career, he is 12-3 straight up (SU) when utilizing a backup QB who has been on his roster for 2+ years. Stidham fits that criteria.
- These are two teams that both like to throw the ball; the Patriots rank fourth in pass rate over expectation (+2.4%), while the Broncos rank seventh (+1.6%) — though that could dip with Stidham under center.
- The Patriots are also No. 1 in the NFL with a 9.2-yard average depth of target, per nfelo.
- New England ranks 23rd in the NFL in red-zone defense, allowing a TD on 61% of red-zone drives.
- Of the remaining teams in the NFL Playoffs, the Broncos currently have the highest Super Bowl future payout if they hoist the Lombardi Trophy, returning an 8.33x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- The Patriots are the third-most likely team to win the Super Bowl, returning a 3.33x payout, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Make AFC Championship NFL Football Picks on PrizePicks
The Patriots vs. Broncos kicks off what should be an incredible Championship Sunday doubleheader to decide who will play in Super Bowl LX.
The Broncos, despite being the No. 1 seed in the AFC most of the season, will be looking to pull off what is now an underdog story led by their backup QB Jarrett Stidham. They'll have to do it vs. potential MVP QB Drake Maye.
It’s no Manning vs. Brady, but it still has the makings of an exciting back-and-forth battle for a spot in Super Bowl LX.
In the Patriots vs. Broncos game on Sunday, you can make picks on the winner, spread, and over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks. Just pick your side, lock in your pick, and earn money if you're right — now in 30 states, including California.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, and news all season long.
