The Patriots and Broncos meet in the AFC Championship Game with a spot in the Super Bowl LX at stake. This season, the second-seeded Patriots improved by 10 wins behind new head coach Mike Vrabel and second-year QB Drake Maye, returning to the AFC title game for the first time since 2018.
The Broncos, who ended the Chiefs' run of AFC West titles, earned the top seed and home-field advantage, with a 14-3 record, but will be without QB Bo Nix.
The Patriots and Broncos AFC Championship contest kicks off Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
We'll break down some AFC Championship history below, as well as spread and over/under trends for Patriots vs. Broncos. You can make your AFC Championship picks on PrizePicks Team Picks, including game winner, spread, over/unders, and more!
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AFC Championship Game History, Trends
The Patriots and Broncos meet in the AFC Championship game for the third time, tied for the most common matchup in AFC Championship history. Here is some more history for the AFC Championship Game.
- New England is tied for the most appearances (16th, Pittsburgh) and has the most wins (11) in AFC Championship history.
- The 16 appearances only trail the San Francisco 49ers (19) for most of any conference, while the 11 wins are the most by three over the 49ers, Cowboys, Steelers, and Broncos.
- The Steelers have the most AFC Championship losses, with eight, one more than the Raiders. The most losses of any conference championship round is 11 by the Niners.
- Pittsburgh has also hosted the most AFC title games with 11. The Broncos host for the eighth time, tied with the Patriots for the second most.
- In AFC Championship history, the AFC East has the most wins (36) and the best win percentage (.583)
- The Patriots have the record for most consecutive appearances with eight, and the Bills have the record for most consecutive wins with four.
- The most points scored in an AFC Championship is 51, by the Bills (51-3 over the Raiders in the 1990 season).
- The ‘71 Colts and ‘82 Jets were both shut out in the AFC title game, both by the Dolphins.
AFC Championship Game Trends
Sunday marks the 56th AFC Championship game and the eighth hosted by the city of Denver. The Patriots are no stranger to this game and are the rare road favorite. Let’s check out other AFC Championship Game trends.
- The home team is 38-17 in AFC Championship games, but have wins in only four of the last seven games.
- A team from the AFC East is 21-15 all-time in the AFC title game, while an AFC West team is 18-17.
- The favorite has covered in 32 of 55 AFC Championship Games, but the last 14 years have been seven favorites and seven underdogs.
- There have been eight previous instances in which the home team was an underdog. The favorite and underdog each covered four times, with the underdog winning outright all four of those times they covered.
- The largest point spread for a road favorite in AFC Championship history is 4, by the Raiders in 1977 (at Denver) and Steelers in 1976 (at Oakland).
- Since over/unders were recorded for playoff games in 1977, the over has hit 25 times and under 23 times.
Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under, Spread
The Patriots and Broncos have played 55 previous times, including five postseason games. The Broncos hold a 31-24 all-time advantage and have won four of the five postseason meetings, including both AFC Championship matchups.
Patriots and Broncos Over/Under, Spread
The Patriots enter the AFC Championship contest as 3.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.38x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
The Broncos are the home underdogs with a 2.77x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: New England Patriots -3.5
- Total: 43.5
- Game Winner Payout: Patriots 1.38x | Broncos 2.77x
Patriots vs. Broncos Team Trends for AFC Championship
Both the Broncos and Patriots franchises are stacked with postseason history, as the two teams have combined for 19 Super Bowl appearances, nine Super Bowl titles, and 27 AFC Championship Game appearances.
New England Patriots Team Trends
The Patriots will be playing in their 16th AFC Championship game and 14th since 2001.
- New England is 11-4 in AFC Championship games, the most wins of any NFL team in Conference Championship games.
- The .733 win percentage in the AFC title game is third-best, behind the Bengals (3-1, .750) and Broncos (8-2, .800)
- The Patriots are 4-3 on the road in the AFC title game, with two of those losses in Denver (following the 2013 and 2015 seasons)
- New England ended the regular season second in scoring (28.8), third in total offense (279.4 yards per game), fourth in passing (250.4), and sixth in rushing (128.9). The Pats finished third in DOVA offense.
- On the defensive side, the Patriots finished fourth in scoring (18.8), eighth in total defense (295.2), sixth in rushing (101.7), and ninth in passing (193.5). However, in DVOA, the Patriots' defense was ranked 23rd.
- The Pats were 11-5-1 against the spread in the regular season, 9-3-1 as a favorite, and 3-1 as a road favorite. New England also covered both postseason games as a home favorite.
- Eleven of the Patriots' 17 regular-season games went over the total. In the postseason, one was over and the other under.
Denver Broncos Team Trends
- The Broncos are playing in their 11th AFC Championship game, tied with the Raiders for the third-most of any AFC team, behind the Patriots (now 16) and Steelers (16).
- Denver is 8-2 in AFC Championship games, tied with the Steelers for second-most wins in AFC title games, and tied with the Cowboys and 49ers for most in either conference.
- The Broncos' .800 win pct in AFC title games is the best of all AFC teams. Only the New York Giants (5-0, 1.000) have a better win percentage in Conference title games.
- Denver’s 6-1 record in home conference title games trailed only the Patriots (7-1) for the best home record.
- The Broncos finished the regular season 14th in scoring (23.8), 10th in total offense (342.6), 11th in passing (223.9), and 16th in rushing (118.7). The Broncos finished 15th in offensive DOVA
- On the defensive side, the Broncos were third in scoring (18.3), second in total yards (278.2), second in rushing (91.1), and seventh in passing yards (187.2). DVOA ranked the Broncos' defense fifth overall.
- 10 of the Broncos’ 17 regular-season games went under the total, but their playoff game last week vs. Buffalo went over.
- Denver was 7-9-1 against the spread this season, 4-0-1 as an underdog, and 2-0 as a home underdog. Last week, the Broncos covered at home as a small favorite.
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Make AFC Championship Patriots vs. Broncos Predictions on PrizePicks
The Patriots and Broncos meet in the AFC Championship for the third time, with the Pats trying to head to their record 12th Super Bowl. The Broncos look for their ninth Super Bowl appearance and enter as a rare home underdog.
You can make Patriots vs. Broncos picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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