The NFL season is ready to get underway very soon, with all 32 teams looking to exceed expectations. Schedules vary greatly in difficulty, and there are also international games to consider that could provide unique challenges for some squads.
With Week 1 on the horizon, which clubs could either maintain or return to form, or even experience some regression? Below, we'll break down three NFL win totals to target in 2026, including PrizePicks payouts for team win totals on both sides.
Three franchises, in particular, stand out.
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2026 NFL Team Win Totals: Lions, Patriots, Cowboys Lead the Way
In 2025, eight teams had 12 or more wins, while seven had fewer than six. The Los Angeles Rams have the highest projected win total at PrizePicks at 13+ wins, which would return a payout of 2.38x, while the Miami Dolphins are on the other side, projected to win 4+ games with a return of 1.81x.
Last season, the New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Denver Broncos all exceeded their projections by at least five wins.
Here are three win totals we are looking at ahead of the 2026 NFL season.
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Detroit Lions Win Total Projection: 11+ Wins
- This Lions took a step back last year from a 15-win 2024, but you have to look at why: injuries, a 3-6 record in one-score games, and a packed division in which all four teams won at least nine games.
- Detroit still ranked third in total DVOA, per FTN, only behind the Seattle Seahawks and the Rams. The offense was fifth in total yards and fourth in points.
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs had over 1,800 scrimmage yards and 18 TDs last season and is now the clear lead back after David Montgomery’s departure.
- There are times when a last-place schedule actually makes a difference. Detroit and Minnesota were tied in record, but the Lions technically finished last, so they play the other last-place teams in the Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans, and New York Giants as opposed to Seattle, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Philadelphia Eagles.
- The Lions also play the AFC East with the Patriots at home, an early trip to Buffalo, and both the lowly Dolphins and New York Jets.
- The NFC North plays the NFC South, where no team finished over .500 last year and no team is projected for 10+ wins at PrizePicks.
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New England Patriots Win Total Projection: 11+ Wins
- The New England Patriots were 7-2 in one-score games last year.
- Per ESPN, NFL teams that exceed their preseason win total by 5+ experience a severe downward regression the following year, hitting the under on their new win totals roughly 80% of the time and dropping an average of 3.4 wins.
- New England has the sixth-hardest schedule in the NFL, with its opponents holding a combined .531 winning percentage from 2025.
- That schedule includes road games at Seattle, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Chicago, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Kansas City. All but the Chiefs made the postseason.
- Last year, the Pats had a .429 strength of schedule entering the season. After a 1-2 start, the Patriots won 13 of the last 14 games; only two of those wins came against teams that finished above .500.
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Dallas Cowboys Win Total Projection: 10+ Wins
- Despite missing the postseason, the Cowboys were second in total offense and seventh in scoring.
- The issues were on the defensive side, where they ranked near the bottom of most categories. They went out and got help, trading for LB Rashan Gary, signing Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant to bolster a secondary that was banged up, and also drafting Ohio State S Caleb Downs at No. 11.
- Starting the season with a road game vs. the Giants and back-to-back home games with Washington and Baltimore could lead to a fast start.
- The Cowboys also have Tampa Bay, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Jacksonville at home while playing road games at Houston, Green Bay, Seattle, and the Rams. They get Tennessee and Arizona on the schedule and play the Giants and Commanders each twice.
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Make 2026 NFL Win Total Picks on PrizePicks
Every team is 0-0 as the NFL season is set to begin. Hope springs eternal around the league, but not everyone can thrive in 2026. Which teams will live up to or surpass the hype, and which ones could fall short this coming campaign?
Don’t wait until lock — make your NFL win total picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Week 1 of the NFL regular season begins on September 9, and the NFL board is already open on PrizePicks Team Picks. That includes NFL predictions for the Super Bowl winner, divisional winners, win totals, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states!
Stick right here with the Playbook for continued NFL news, picks, analysis, and more every day through the Super Bowl.
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