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Patrick Mahomes Projection, Pick vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes flexes during an NFL football game.
AP Photo/Ed Zurga

Monday Night Football presents another high-profile matchup to cap off Week 5, as the Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

K.C. has won back-to-back games to get to 2-2, while Jacksonville is off to a hot 3-1 start. In a battle of uber-talented QBs Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence, a track meet is a possibility. 

Here, we’ll cover some Patrick Mahomes projections and picks for Monday night.

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Patrick Mahomes Projection, Pick for Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football

Below are some key Patrick Mahomes player projections to consider for Week 5. There are plenty of intriguing Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks to choose from on PrizePicks

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Projection: 274.5 Pass+Rush Yards

  • After a quiet start to the season, Mahomes exploded for a big Week 4. Facing the Ravens and their shaky D, he set season highs in completions (25), passing yards (270), TDs (4), and passer rating (124.8) while taking just a single sack. 
  • In four career games facing the Jags — all wins — the two-time MVP averages 331.8 passing yards and 21 rushing yards. 
  • Mahomes, notoriously a problem-solver against zone coverage, might find success given the Jaguars’ heavy mix of Cover 3 (30%) and Cover 6 (24%)
  • While Jacksonville’s pass defense looks tremendous (third in EPA/play), it hasn’t been tested by a high-level signal caller like Mahomes. Additionally, coordinator Anthony Campanile’s group has the highest pass rate faced at 70.2% and struggles on late downs (24th). 
  • The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-fewest QB rushing attempts at 12, yet they’re 19th in yards at 76.

More Patrick Mahomes Projections vs. Jaguars Tonight

Here are some other top Patrick Mahomes projections vs. the Jaguars tonight, courtesy of PrizePicks

  • 247.5 Pass Yards
  • 36 Pass Attempts
  • 35.5 Longest Completion
  • 23.5 Pass Completions
  • 22.5 Rush Yards
  • 19.5 Fantasy Score
  • And More!

Make Monday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks

Patrick Mahomes picks aren’t the only ones on the table. There's a ton of time left in the NFL season to take your projections to the next level.

Jump in the football action with PrizePicks! Simply select players, predict More or Less for their stats, and win real-money rewards when you’re right. 

Keep it right here with the Playbook for continued NFL analysis and picks all season long. 

Get in the game! Sign up for PrizePicks and cash in on your sports predictions. Play $5 and get $50 instantly in Lineups with promo code PLAYBOOK.

about the author

Jordan Foote is a seasoned sports writer with years of experience covering the NFL, NBA and MLB for multiple outlets. He is a Baker University alumnus, earning his degree in Mass Media with an emphasis in sports journalism. Foote was born and raised in Kansas City, where he still resides to this day.

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