Padres vs. Phillies Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, June 4

The first pitch of the matchup between the San Diego Padres (32-28) and the Philadelphia Phillies (32-29) is set for 1:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, June 4, with the Phillies returning a 1.44x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

The Phillies have won both games in this series. On Wednesday, the Padres had chances to take the lead, having the bases loaded in the top of the eighth, but couldn’t get the big hit as the offense continues to struggle. Now Philadelphia is looking for the sweep with one of its top pitchers on the mound, as SP Zack Wheeler gets the ball on Thursday.

Below, we'll break down our Padres vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Padres vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks for today's game.

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Padres vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, June 4

The Padres will start SP Lucas Giolito (7.25 xFIP across 3 starts and 12.2 IP in 2026). Giolito began the season in the minors, and his first two starts with the Padres went well, allowing a combined 3 earned runs in 10 innings. His last start against the Nationals was brutal, as he gave up 4 earned runs and 4 walks in just 2.2 innings.

The Padres started the season playing very well, but it’s beginning to fall apart. On April 25, they had an 18-8 record and were ahead by a half-game in the National League West; since then, they are 14-20 and are seven games behind first place.

San Diego has talented and highly paid hitters, but collectively, they have been among the worst offenses recently. Since April 26, they rank last in wOBA (.283), last in wRC+ (81), 27th in xBA (.232), and 22nd in xSLG (.380), per FanGraphs. This includes OF Fernando Tatis Jr., whose .408 xSLG is a career-worst, and it took him 55 games to hit his first home run of the year.

The Phillies counter with SP Zack Wheeler (3.28 xFIP across 7 starts and 43.2 IP in 2026). The 36-year-old is about as consistent as any top pitcher in baseball. He's producinng another season with a sub-3.00 ERA, can still get his fastball into the upper 90s, and has a split finger that produces a 40% whiff rate. 

The Phillies can depend on Wheeler to keep them in contention, as he’s gone at least 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs or less in five of seven starts.

A managerial change has altered the Phillies' trajectory. After starting the season 9-19, they fired manager Rob Thompson, and bench coach Don Mattingly took over. Since April 28, when Mattingly became the manager, they are 23-10 and have become one of the best power lineups, ranking fifth in hard-hit rate (41.5%) and ninth in xSLG (.416).

At 9.5 games behind first place in the National League East, this is not an impossible mountain to climb for Philly — especially with about 100 games to play. The Phillies are at least in contention for an NL wild card spot, trailing the final spot by only one game.

Padres vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, June 4

The Phillies enter Thursday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.44x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Padres vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Phillies -1.5 (1.96x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Padres 2.56x | Phillies 1.44x

Make your Padres vs. Phillies prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Padres vs. Phillies Prediction on Spread – 6/4/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Padres vs. Phillies prediction on the run line for Thursday, June 4.

Lock in your Padres vs. Phillies prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Phillies have a 6-1 record with Wheeler on the mound this season.
• Some of the Padres' top hitters have struggled against Wheeler, including Tatis Jr., who is 2-for-12 with a .210 xBA and .351 xSLG.
• In 2 starts at Citizens Bank Park, Giolito has a 9.32 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
• The Phillies have won all four home games against the Padres when Wheeler has started.
• Giolito is allowing a 42.1% hard-hit rate, which is worse than the league average of 37.9%. He faces a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks fourth in MLB with a 41.4% hard-hit rate.
• San Diego's starter has battled control issues with 3 or more walks in all 3 starts. The Phillies do not draw many walks, ranking 27th with a 7.9% walk rate, but Giolito recently allowed 4 walks to the Nationals, who rank 18th with a 9.3% walk rate.
• There is no relief for the Padres offense when Wheeler exits the game, as they will face a Phillies bullpen that leads baseball with a 3.22 xFIP.

Padres vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 6/4/26

Here are the top Padres vs. Phillies picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, June 4. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Kyle Schwarber and Zack Wheeler.

Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber vs. Padres: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Schwarber is 4-for-15 lifetime against Giolito with 1 home run and 2 doubles.
• Schwarber has been hot recently; since May 24, he has a .300 BA and .916 OPS.
• Giolito throws the four-seamer and changeup for a combined 80% of his pitches. Schwarber has a .426 wOBA against the four-seamer and a 42.9% home run-to-fly-ball ratio against the changeup this season.
• The Phillies designated hitter’s success is partially due to his bat speed and power. His 77.1 mph bat speed ranks in the 97th percentile, while he leads the league with a 23.3% barrel rate.

Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Phillies SP Zack Wheeler vs. Padres: 1.5 Walks Allowed

• The Padres are not a disciplined lineup, ranking 20th with an 8.8% walk rate.
• Wheeler does not give away many free passes, as his 5.5% walk rate is in the 90th percentile.
• The Phillies ace can make hitters chase pitches out of the strike zone, with a 36.9% chase rate that ranks in the 96th percentile. The Padres rank 24th with a 32.2% chase rate.
• Wheeler likes to throw his fastball and splitter. The Padres have been struggling against those pitches recently; since May 28, they rank 29th in weighted runs above average against fastballs (-18.1) and 27th in weighted runs above average against splitters (-2.9).
• Wheeler’s .225 xBA allowed ranks in the 72nd percentile, which could be an advantage against a San Diego lineup that sits 26th with .240 xBA.

Add Zack Wheeler to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Padres vs. Phillies Picks on PrizePicks

The struggles for the Padres continue as they’ve lost four straight and are on the verge of being swept in Philadelphia. The Phillies will give the ball to Zack Wheeler as they look to win their sixth consecutive matchup against San Diego this season.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Padres vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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