Full slates of college football are finally back on Saturday, September 5, including Oregon State vs. #23 Houston clashing at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. PrizePicks tabs Houston as a notable home favorite, including a 20.5-point spread in favor of the Cougars.
As part of a resurgence for the Pac-12 conference with six new teams, Oregon State enters its first season under head coach JaMarcus Shephard. Following a strong 10-3 finish in 2025, Houston looks to take the next step in head coach Willie Fritz’s third season at the helm.
Let’s take a deep dive into each team entering the 2026 college football season, capped by an Oregon State vs. Houston prediction for Week 1 — featuring projections via PrizePicks.
Make your Oregon State vs. Houston picks on PrizePicks now!
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Oregon State vs. #23 Houston Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NCAAF Week 1
The Pac-12 nabbed several teams from the Mountain West, as Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State, San Diego State, and Texas State join the conference alongside Oregon State and Washington State. Gonzaga will also participate during basketball season, but the university still lacks a varsity football program.
Despite being a part of the Pac-12 during its heyday, Oregon State is expected to finish toward the bottom of the conference. The Beavers went 2-10 last season, logging only -0.06 adjusted EPA per play (29th percentile) while giving up 0.01 adjusted EPA per play (45th percentile), per Game On Paper.
Keep in mind OSU had a weak schedule outside of games against Texas Tech and Oregon. In fact, the Beavers finished 88th in Team Rankings’ strength-of-schedule rankings.
On the flip side, Houston was a step ahead by sitting 60th out of 136 FBS teams for the metric. The Cougs mainly beat up on lesser Big 12 teams, as they lost 35-11 in their greatest test against Texas Tech. However, wins over Arizona State (24-16) and LSU (38-35) in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl were major bullet points.
Houston is looking to record double-digit wins in back-to-back seasons for the first time in program history. After logging 29.3 PPG (72nd percentile) last season, the Cougars return QB Conner Weigman, who tallied 2,705 passing yards and 700 rushing yards in 2025, with leading WR Amare Thomas (966 receiving yards last year).
Furthermore, Houston landed a notable transfer RB in Makhi Hughes, who appeared in only six games for Oregon last year. However, he totaled jaw-dropping 1,378 and 1,401 rushing yard totals from 2023 to 2024 at Tulane.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranked the Cougs 17th in returning production. The offense sits seventh nationally, suggesting this talented unit can carry the load in 2026.
Oregon State is 94th in returning production, and for a 2-10 team, this was likely necessary. Head coach JaMarcus Shephard was Alabama’s assistant head coach, co-offensive coordinator, and wide receivers coach over the last two seasons. He brought in 21 transfers while 36 players left the program.
As a high-profile transfer from Duke, Beavers QB Maalik Murphy disappointed with 9 passing TDs and 8 INTs a season ago. After racking up 3,611 passing yards and 34 passing TDs as a freshman at Mercer in 2025, transfer QB Braden Atkinson came in and won the job, signaling a major change for the program.
Oregon State vs. Houston Spread, Over/Under, Payouts – Saturday, September 5
Anchored by key returning experience, Houston is a clear 20.5-point favorite on Saturday.
Here are the full payouts for Oregon State vs. Houston on PrizePicks Team Picks, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under.
Make your Oregon State vs. Houston prediction on over/under on PrizePicks!
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Oregon State vs. Houston Prediction on Over/Under for NCAAF Week 1
Houston brings back a ton of experience on offense, and the backfield could include an upgrade with RB Makhi Hughes stepping in for 2025’s starter Dean Connors, who totaled 977 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry last year.
Hughes couldn’t crack Oregon’s 2025 rotation, but that doesn’t cover up his two outstanding seasons at Tulane. He had sky-high volume with 258 and 265 carries in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, yet Hughes maintained excellent efficiency with 5.3 yards per rushing attempt in each season.
Pro Football Focus gave him 860 yards after contact in 2023, followed by 955 yards after contact for the 2024 campaign. Keep in mind Oregon State’s 48.3 tackle grade from 2025 ranked 126th out of 136 FBS teams.
PrizePicks gives Hughes 76.5 projected rushing yards vs. Oregon State. He may have an opportunity to feast, boosted by the Cougs’ 57.8% rush-play rate (82nd percentile) a season ago.
Assuming Hughes can return to his Tulane efficiency, Houston’s ground game should be lethal paired with Weigman’s legs. Furthermore, the Beavers gave up 4.6 yards per carry (32nd percentile) in the 2025 season.
The over was 5-3 over Houston’s final eight games last season. However, the run games could slow the game.
The Cougs averaged 26.6 seconds per play in 2025, which was in the 57th percentile for the most seconds per play. Oregon State also logged 26.9 seconds per play (62nd percentile), and Shephard’s offense at Alabama recorded 27.7 seconds per play (24th percentile) last year.
We can’t ignore the Beavers’ minimal productivity with -0.06 adjusted EPA per play (29th percentile) as well. While Shephard may help improve OSU’s offense, it likely has a long way to go. This, paired with a potential slow tempo, could lead to few points.
Lock in your Oregon State vs. Houston prediction on PrizePicks before today’s NCAAF game.
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Make Oregon State vs. Houston Picks on PrizePicks
Houston hopes to capture another double-digit-win season with plenty of returning experience, while Oregon State made wholesale changes alongside a Pac-12 rebuild in the offseason.
The Cougars should have a clear advantage, but a bleeding clock may impact the pace of play on Saturday.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Oregon State vs. Houston picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into the 2026 season.
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