A week after huge wins to start conference play, the Ole Miss Rebels and Florida Gators square off in a top-25 battle in Gainesville. The two meet for the third straight season, and that hasn't happened since the 1940s. The Gators enter as a 3.5-point favorite on the spread, returning a 1.53x payout with a home win via PrizePicks.
Florida went to Auburn last week and earned its first SEC win of the Jon Sumrall era, jumping into the national rankings, while Ole Miss moved up to #4 in the poll by ruining Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford with a 32-24 win over #7 LSU.
Below, we’ll break down our Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game, including the game winner, spread, and over/under for PrizePicks.
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#4 Ole Miss vs. #21 Florida Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 26
Florida continues to ride its new explosive offense to high-scoring wins, scoring 44+ points and 495+ yards in all three wins this season. The Gators' 54.0 points per game is second in the nation behind rival Georgia, while their 544.3 yards per game is third, behind Miami and Mississippi State.
The passing game has been efficient, with Georgia Tech transfer QB Aaron Philo completing 73.4% of his passes with 6 TDs and 2 INTs, while adding 2 more TDs on the ground. But what's really powered Florida’s new offense under Buster Faulkner (also from Georgia Tech) is RB Jadan Baugh.
Baugh, who leads the SEC in yards and TDs, has forced 30 missed tackles, the most nationally, per Pro Football Focus. He goes up against an Ole Miss defense that has missed 46 tackles defensively, the second-most among Power Four teams.
Ole Miss is led by Heisman Trophy candidate QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy, who is doubtful to play with a shoulder injury that caused him to leave the win over LSU. The Rebels are 15-2 over the last two seasons, only losing to a pair of top teams in Georgia and Miami.
Ole Miss leads the SEC with 330.7 passing yards per game, completes 68.1% of its passes, has a 91.7% red-zone TD rate, and scored 11 TDs and 1 FG in 12 red-zone trips this season. They will take that offense to Gainesville to face a Gators defense that allowed 21 points to Florida Atlantic and 39 to Auburn last week.
The teams met the last two seasons, with Ole Miss earning a 34-24 win in Oxford one year after Florida upset #9 Ole Miss, 24-17, crushing the Rebels' playoff hopes in 2024.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 26
Florida enters Saturday’s game as a 3.5-point home favorite vs. Ole Miss, returning a 1.53x payout if they win outright, according to PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for Ole Miss vs. Florida on PrizePicks
Make your Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks!
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction on Over/Under – 9/26/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction on the over/under for Saturday, September 26.
- The evidence is plentiful for offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner's impact on this Florida offense, as the Gators has gone from 102nd in yards per game last season to third through three 2026 games.
- According to Fourth Down Data, Florida is in the 99th percentile in offensive EPA/play (+0.327) and points per drive (4.91), the 95th percentile in offensive success rate (55.1%), and the 91st percentile in explosiveness (28.0%). The Gators are also in the 96th percentile in opponent-adjusted offense.
- Florida is fourth nationally in yards/play (8.0), behind Georgia, Miami, and Memphis.
- While Florida's defense has posted some good raw numbers, the advanced metrics remain a concern. Per Fourth Down Data, the Gators rank in the 24th percentile in opponent-adjusted defense and 23rd percentile in defensive EPA/play. Florida is also in just the 13th percentile in third-down defense.
- Ole Miss has a similar profile to Florida, with an explosive offense and questionable defense. The Rebels' opponent-adjusted offensive EPA/play of 0.255 ranks 10th nationally. They have a top-10 passing game but have struggled on the ground, a concern compounded by Kewan Lacy's shoulder injury. Ole Miss averages just 114.0 rushing yards per game (14th in the SEC).
- On the defensive side, Ole Miss has dealt with problems stopping the run, allowing 159.0 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry — a concerning matchup against one of the nation's top running backs in Baugh.
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Ole Miss vs. Florida Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/26/26
Here are the top Ole Miss vs. Florida picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, September 26. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Jadan Baugh.
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss vs. Florida: 292.5 Pass Yards
- Trinidad Chambliss has passed for 225+ yards in nine straight starts and in 15 of 16 games since taking over the starting role. That includes 10 games of 300+ yards.
- The Ole Miss QB has thrown for 924 yards, ranking eighth nationally while leading the SEC.
- Chambliss is a dual-threat QB, gaining 40+ yards on the ground in seven of his 16 starts.
- Last year vs. Florida, Chambliss completed 26 of 35 passes for 301 yards, including 1 TD and 1 INT.
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Florida RB Jadan Baugh vs. Ole Miss: 118.5 Rush Yards
- Florida RB Jadan Baugh has 458 rushing yards in three games, the second-most in the country and most in the SEC. His 8 rushing TDs are also tied for the most in the country.
- Baugh leads the SEC in rushing yards per game (152.7), yards per carry (8.48), and all-purpose yards (154.7).
- He has 135+ rushing yards in all three games this season. After rushing for 266 yards in last year's season finale vs. Florida State, his four-game average sits at 181.0 yards per game.
- Since last season, Jadan Baugh has accounted for 32.1% of Florida's total offensive yardage, with 1,838 yards from scrimmage.
Pick Jadan Baugh + Florida to win on PrizePicks.
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Will Florida get an early signature win and join the contender ranks? Ole Miss looks to follow up its big win over LSU with another top-25 win in conference play.
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