Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, September 5

The 2026 college football season is finally here, and Saturday brings a fascinating in-state matchup between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The Cowboys are entering a completely new era under HC Eric Morris, while Tulsa will be looking for a repeat performance of their upset over OKST last season.

Oklahoma State enters the matchup as a 13.5-point road favorite, with the total sitting at 58.5 points on PrizePicks.

Will Morris and his flashy QB Drew Mestemaker kick off their Oklahoma State tenure with a bang, or can Tulsa start their season with another defeat of the Cowboys in front of their home crowd? Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa kicks off at 3:45 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

Below, we’ll break down our Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game in Week 1, including the game winner, spread, and over/under for PrizePicks.

Make your Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa picks on PrizePicks now!

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Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Saturday, September 5

Oklahoma State enters 2026 looking almost nothing like the team that finished 1-11 last season. The Cowboys have hired Morris and essentially rebuilt the roster from the ground up. The Cowboys have added a whopping 91 newcomers, including 66 transfers — 21 of whom are coming directly from Morris' former program, North Texas.

That group features three of the most important offensive players on the roster: QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins, and WR Wyatt Young.

The key name here is Mestemaker. As a redshirt freshman at North Texas in 2025, he led the FBS with 4,379 passing yards (312.8 per game) and 9.46 yards per attempt. He also threw 34 TDs, which ranked second. Despite that passing volume, he impressively threw just 9 INTs.

Hawkins and Young were equally awesome in their own right. Hawkins ran for 1,434 yards and 25 TDs while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Young caught 70 passes for 1,264 yards and 10 TDs while slotting in at third nationally in receiving yards and eighth in yards per game.

The biggest question mark surrounding the program is whether Oklahoma State's new offensive line can give those players enough time and space to operate.

The Cowboys' defense has also undergone a major overhaul, although Oklahoma State retained several important pieces, including DE Jaleel Johnson, DT Iman Oates and CB LaDainian Fields. The Cowboys have also brought in players from North Texas to help implement DC Skyler Cassity's aggressive, turnover-oriented system.

Tulsa, meanwhile, enters year two under HC Tre Lamb and seeks improvement after going just 4-8 last season. The highlight of their campaign came in this same matchup when they went into Stillwater and defeated Oklahoma State 19-12 as 10-point underdogs.

QB Baylor Hayes led the charge in that contest, completing 23 of 36 passes for 219 yards and a TD while adding 23 yards on the ground.

Hayes returns for his second season as Tulsa's starter. Overall, he completed 186 of 316 passes for 2,158 yards and 12 TDs in 2025, also rushing for 188 yards and three scores. He set Tulsa freshman records for passing yards and TD throws.

The bad news is that Tulsa lost several major pieces from last year's offense, including 1,000-yard RB Dominic Richardson, TE Brody Foley, and two leading WRs. Like most teams, they've replaced them with a collection of transfers, which could lead to an adjustment period.

Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 5

Oklahoma State enters Saturday’s game as 13.5-point favorites against Tulsa via PrizePicks, returning a 1.16x payout with a victory on the road.

Here are the full payouts for Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa on PrizePicks.

Make your Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Prediction on Spread – 9/5/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa prediction on the spread for Saturday, September 5.

• Everybody and their mothers are on Oklahoma State to cover tonight. This brings in my two favorite philosophies: fade the public and fade the hype.
• I'm a massive Mestemaker fan, but a team is only as good as its offensive line, and this OKST front has question marks. An entirely new crew could lead to issues against a Tulsa defense that's built around its front seven and recorded 23 sacks in 2025.
• Tulsa’s game plan plays into the hands of a potential underdog surprise. They look to slow the game down and bleed the clock, which would keep Mestemaker on the sideline and force the Cowboys' drives to be efficient. Tulsa's defense ranked in the 63rd percentile in rush EPA per play in 2025, via Game on Paper, feeding further into pressure being on Mestemaker to do things himself.
• Hayes threw just 6 INTs last season and showed a great ability to take care of the rock, which could be helpful as the Golden Hurricane try to protect home turf.
• Tulsa's experience pulling off an upset vs. Oklahoma State with Lamb at the helm could prove vital in helping them believe they can do it again, this time with their home crowd cheering them on.

Lock in your Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa prediction on PrizePicks before Saturday’s game.

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Make Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Picks on PrizePicks

A new-look Oklahoma State team has fans all over the country excited to see what they have in store, but could there be some growing pains? If they want to start their season off right, they'll have to slay the dragon in Tulsa, who has the confidence of knowing there was already one upset in this series just last season.

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa pick on PrizePicks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the college football board, so you can make predictions on yards, field goals, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

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Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into 2026.