Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, NBA Picks – Thursday, October 22

After a massive 11-game NBA slate on Wednesday, the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will wrap up a two-game slate on Thursday, October 22. Ahead of tip-off at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, the Thunder are decent-sized home favorites, with a 1.29x payout to win on PrizePicks.

Denver will play its season opener on Thursday after going 54-28 in the 2025-26 season, and the Nuggets are looking to bounce back after being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. As for Oklahoma City, the 2025 NBA champs got their season started on Tuesday night with an impressive double-digit win over the San Antonio Spurs.

Below, we'll break down the matchup for our Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction, including the spread and player projections on PrizePicks.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 22

The Thunder enter Thursday’s matchup as 8.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.29x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Nuggets vs. Thunder. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Stats used in this article are from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, or databallr unless stated otherwise.

Entering the new campaign, the Nuggets are still led by C Nikola Jokic, PG Jamal Murray, and F Aaron Gordon. Jokic finished as the runner-up for NBA MVP a season ago with career-high marks in RPG (12.9) and APG (10.7).

Since winning the NBA title in 2022-23, Denver has lost in the Western Conference semifinals or earlier in three straight seasons. Along with hoping that G/F Cameron Johnson can remain healthier than a season ago, G/F DeMar DeRozan joins the rotation as a potential contributor.

The Thunder certainly made a statement on Tuesday night by cruising to a 116-104 victory over the Spurs, defeating the team they lost to in last year’s Western Conference Finals. G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning two-time MVP, produced 32 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 3 blocks in the 12-point win over San Antonio in OKC’s season opener.

In back-to-back years, the Thunder have advanced to the Western Conference Finals, so making a deep push in the postseason is now an expectation for head coach Mark Daigneault’s squad.

Entering Thursday’s contest, the Thunder have the lowest payout to win the NBA Finals (2.5x) on PrizePicks this season. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are tied with the Houston Rockets for the fifth-lowest payout to win it all (14.28x).

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread – 10/22/26

Here are the key stats behind our Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction on Thursday afternoon, including a pick for the point spread on PrizePicks.

• The Nuggets are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine meetings against the Thunder. Denver was underdogs in six of the seven games it covered during that span.
• Although the Nuggets were 21st in defensive rating (116.0) last season, they have the offensive firepower to push the Thunder after ranking first in offensive rating (121.2).
• The most assists per turnover (2.3) and the highest true-shooting percentage (61.6%) aided Denver's offensive success last year.
• During the 2025-26 season, Denver had the best record ATS (12-3) as road underdogs.
• With the Thunder being massive favorites often at home last season, they had the 11th-worst record ATS (23-25) when favored at home.
• While Oklahoma City is playing its second game of the season and Denver is making its season debut, it’s worth noting that the Thunder had the fourth-worst record ATS with a rest disadvantage (7-13) a season ago.

Lock in your Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction on PrizePicks before tip-off.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 10/22/26

Nuggets C Nikola Jokic vs. Thunder: 12.5 Rebounds

• Jokic was in the 100th percentile in RPG (12.9) in 2025-26, leading the league in that department.
• Across the last five seasons, Jokic has averaged at least 12.7 RPG in three of them.
• In his three matchups against the Thunder last season, Jokic had 14 or more rebounds in two of them.
• Just last year, Jokic had the third-most rebound chances per game (16.4).

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Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nuggets: 37.5 Pts + Asts

• Gilgeous-Alexander logged the second-most PPG (31.1) last season.
• Across his three meetings against the Nuggets in 2025-26, SGA had at least 38 points and assists in all three games.
• Furthermore, SGA scored at least 34 points in all three matchups against Denver last year.
• Last season, the two-time MVP averaged 31.3 PPG and 6.6 APG at home.

Add Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks on PrizePicks

The Nuggets are set to play their season opener on Thursday, while the Thunder are looking to build off a stellar win over the Spurs on Tuesday. Even with OKC dominating San Antonio in its first game of the season, Denver seems capable of keeping this game closer than expected.

Don't wait until tip-off — make your Nuggets vs. Thunder picks on PrizePicks now!

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