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Among the NFL games taking place in Week 5, an intriguing one sees Indianapolis Colts travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, October 11, at 1 p.m. ET.
With fantasy football managers contemplating decisions at the WR position, it’s worth taking a look at Josh Downs and DK Metcalf in Sunday’s matchup. Both are regarded similarly in most fantasy football rankings entering Week 5, so which WR should you prioritize in lineups?
Below, we’ll break down a Week 5 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em discussion on whether to start Downs or Metcalf in fantasy football (factoring in PPR scoring settings). We'll also highlight their Sunday PrizePicks projections.
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Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em WRs, Week 5: Josh Downs or DK Metcalf?
Let’s dive into our Week 5 fantasy football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em decision between Downs and Metcalf.
All stats used in this article are from PFF or SumerSports unless stated otherwise. Fantasy rankings and fantasy point totals are courtesy of FantasyPros.
Why Start Josh Downs?
Josh Downs Week 5 PrizePicks Projections: 57.5 Rec Yards, 5 Recs, 7.5 Rec Targets
- Before scoring only 4.6 fantasy points in a positive game script in Week 4 in London, Downs tallied 12+ fantasy points in back-to-back games before that.
- The Colts are slight road underdogs against the Steelers in Week 5, which can lead to more pass-catching opportunities for Downs.
- Among 54 WRs with 100 or more routes run, Downs is 20th in target share (22.8%).
- Pittsburgh’s defense is 26th in dropback success rate allowed (49.6%), per RBSDM.
- The Steelers just allowed QB Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns to throw for 268 yards and have 11.2 yards per reception against them in Week 4.
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Why Start DK Metcalf?
DK Metcalf Week 5 PrizePicks Projections: 53.5 Rec Yards, 4 Recs, 7 Rec Targets
- Metcalf just registered a season-high 16.5 fantasy points in Week 4 with 5 receptions for 115 yards.
- Across the first four weeks, Metcalf has the 19th-highest target share (22.9%) among the same 54 WRs with 100+ routes run.
- With WR Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined for the Steelers, Metcalf may see even more looks in the passing attack.
- The reunion of QB Aaron Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy has led to Pittsburgh being sixth in neutral pass rate (58.3%) entering Week 5.
- The Colts’ defense is 20th in dropback EPA allowed (0.09). Additionally, Indy’s defense is permitting the 13th-most fantasy PPG to WRs (29.5).
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Week 5 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Verdict: Start Josh Downs
Although Downs has been inconsistent to begin the season, Metcalf has concerning advanced metrics.
Through the first four weeks, Metcalf has the ninth-fewest yards per route run (1.26) and fourth-highest drop rate (15.8%) among 47 WRs with at least 20 targets. Meanwhile, Downs has the highest route rate (98.5%) and the lowest drop rate (0.0%) in the same sample.
According to Fantasy Points Data, the Colts allow the 11th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to slot WRs (+1.3) compared to the sixth-fewest to boundary wideouts (-5.8).
Metcalf is lined up out wide at the eighth-highest rate (80.4%) among WRs with 20+ targets.
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Unless you’re in shallow fantasy football leagues, Downs and Metcalf could very well be in your lineups as a WR2, WR3, or flex option. But if you have to decide between them, Downs gets the slight nod against the Steelers in Week 5 in fantasy land.
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