The NBA's five-game slate on Christmas Day is a good one, and we’ll highlight three Western Conference contests, including the Warriors (15-15) hosting the Mavericks (12-19) at 5:00 p.m. ET, the Rockets (17-10) visiting the Lakers (19-9) at 8:00 p.m. ET, and the Nuggets (21-8) entertaining the Timberwolves (20-10) at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Golden State and Dallas are each coming off victories in their last outings, while the Rockets try to close out their six-game road swing with a W. Denver and Minnesota are meeting for the third time, with the Nuggets taking the first two against their division rivals.
Let’s look at the NBA Christmas game predictions on the spreads and over/under.
NBA Christmas Games Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Mavericks are the only team playing on Christmas owning a losing record; the other five squads have already grabbed 20-or-more victories.
Mavericks vs. Warriors Over/Under, Spread
The Warriors enter this matchup as 9.5-point favorites, returning a 1.29x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Mavericks are road underdogs with a 3.33x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Golden State Warriors -9.5
- Over/Under: 226.5
- Game Winner Payout: Mavericks 3.33x | Warriors 1.29x
(Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change)
Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction on Over/Under
Here are some stats to know to get you set for Mavericks vs. Warriors tonight, including insights on our Mavericks vs. Warriors prediction.
- Dallas has cashed the over in seven of the last 10 games, including in Tuesday’s 131-130 triumph over Denver.
- The Mavs are riding a 5-2 over stretch in the past seven road contests. Dallas has hit these overs in spite of scoring fewer than 114 points on four occasions.
- The Warriors finished over the total in five of the previous eight outings at Chase Center. Golden State stayed under in Monday’s 120-97 blowout of Orlando on a 229.5 over/under.
- These teams squared off four times last season and the under hit in the final two matchups.
- Last season’s games are tough to judge since Mavericks F Anthony Davis was injured and Cooper Flagg was still playing at Duke.
- Dallas leads the league in 3-point defense, limiting opponents to 33.1% from deep. Golden State isn’t far behind in fourth, giving up 34% shooting from downtown.
Rockets vs. Lakers Over/Under, Spread
The Rockets enter this matchup as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 1.58x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Lakers are home underdogs with a 2.27x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Houston Rockets -2.5
- Over/Under: 229.5
- Game Winner Payout: Rockets 1.58x | Lakers 2.27x
(Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change)
Rockets vs. Lakers Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you set for Rockets vs. Lakers tonight, including insights on our Rockets vs. Lakers prediction.
- The Rockets have been grounded from an ATS standpoint, covering once in the last seven games.
- Five ATS losses in this stretch for Houston came as a favorite of 6 or more points.
- The Lakers are coming off consecutive losses for the first time in 2025, falling to the Clippers (103-88) and Suns (132-108).
- Los Angeles has rebounded nicely following poor defensive efforts. In five games after allowing at least 125 points, the Lake Show gives up an average of 110.2 ppg.
- Head coach J.J. Redick’s squad is 0-3 in the past three at Crypto.com Arena and are 2-2 as a home underdog.
- The Lakers covered all three matchups with the Rockets last season, including a pair of home victories.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Over/Under, Spread
The Nuggets enter this matchup as 4.5-point favorites, returning a 1.58x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Timberwolves are road underdogs with a 2.27x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Denver Nuggets -4.5
- Over/Under: 239.5
- Game Winner Payout: Timberwolves 2.27x | Nuggets 1.58x
(Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you set for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets tonight, including insights on our Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction.
- The Timberwolves look to avenge a pair of home losses to the Nuggets in the opening month. Denver won at Target Center by double-digits each time, 127-114 on October 27 and 123-112 on November 15.
- Last season, Minnesota swept Denver in the four matchups, including a pair of road underdog victories.
- The Timberwolves finished a 4-1 homestand on Tuesday defeating the Knicks, 115-104. Minnesota began the season 0-5 ATS, but is 12-13 ATS the last 25 games.
- Minnesota is 2-1 as a road underdog, winning at Golden State, 127-120, while covering as 10.5-point dogs in a 113-105 defeat at Oklahoma City in late November.
- The Nuggets started 6-0 at Ball Arena, but have slumped to a 3-5 record in the past eight home games. In this span, Denver lost as double-digit favorites to Chicago, Sacramento, and Dallas.
Make Christmas Day Picks on NBA on PrizePicks
Thursday's Christmas Day slate is a strong one, highlighted by four key Western Conference matchups.
There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every NBA moment than with PrizePicks.
There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NBA board, so you can build your Lineup however you’d like — with no salary or positional restrictions. Just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks.
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