Navy vs. UAB Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Friday, September 25

A pair of American Conference foes that have stumbled out of the gate are set to square off under the bright lights of Friday night college football. Navy and UAB clash at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, with the action taking place at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Ala.

Heading into the bout, Navy is favored by 6.5 points on the PrizePicks spread. As the Midshipmen continue their conference slate and the Blazers kick off theirs, Friday brings plenty to play for on both sides. 

Below, we'll break down our Navy vs. UAB prediction and picks for Friday’s college football game, including the spread and over/under for PrizePicks.

Make your Navy vs. UAB prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Navy vs. UAB Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, September 25

Last season was one filled with glory for Navy, which shone under head coach Brian Newberry en route to an 11-2 record and peaking at #22 in the AP poll. The Midshipmen secured a Liberty Bowl victory over Cincinnati in blowout fashion, seemingly setting the scene for a terrific 2026.

Unfortunately, Navy was tasked with navigating life minus QB Blake Horvath and RB Eli Heidenreich following their graduations from the program. The result is a roster that ranks just 93rd among FBS teams in returning production from 2025, including a 121st slotting on offense. 

Navy opened its 2026 with a bang, taking down Towson by a final score of 42-15. That was followed up by a road shortcoming at Florida Atlantic, however, that really wasn’t as close as the box score suggested. Navy scored 16 fourth-quarter points to bridge the gap and make things look respectable. 

Still, most of what this team wants is out in front of it, although the health of QB Braxton Woodson remains a question mark. He could be a game-time decision for Friday, meaning there’s a chance that Jackson Gutierrez relieves him in Week 4. 

UAB is also a team experiencing plenty of change, sitting 114th or worse in returning output on both sides of the ball. It’s a new era now that former interim head coach Alex Mortensen has taken over as the full-time man, although things aren’t going swimmingly following a 4-8 campaign in 2025.

The Blazers suffered crushing defeats at the hands of Illinois (42-23) and Louisiana (21-14), with a narrow 26-20 triumph over Louisiana-Monroe sandwiched in between. Leading the way for UAB is a transfer portal-heavy assortment of players, headlined by RB Roderick Robinson II (24.1% usage rate) and WR Ty Mims. 

QB Ryder Burton was given the keys to the car for 2026 but has thrown more INTs (3) than TDs (2) through three starts. According to Game on Paper, his 0.02 EPA per dropback ranks 87th out of 137 qualified passers thus far. 

Navy has won three straight in this rivalry dating back to 2023, including a 38-24 advantage at home last September. That game went over the projected total, although it was UAB that covered a 20.5-point spread. 

Navy vs. UAB Spread, Over/Under – Friday, September 25

Navy enters Friday’s game as a 6.5-point road favorite against UAB, returning a 1.36x payout on PrizePicks if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Navy vs. UAB game on PrizePicks.

Make your Navy vs. UAB pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Navy vs. UAB Prediction on Spread – 9/25/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Navy vs. UAB prediction on the spread for Friday, September 25’s game. 

• Navy was 2-1 against the spread as a road favorite last year, also hitting the over twice. UAB went 1-3 ATS as a road underdog in 2025, including 1-3 to the over. 
• As expected, there’s a massive strength-versus-weakness matchup in how Navy runs and UAB defends the ground game. Via Game on Paper, Navy sits in the 99th percentile in rush EPA/play, but UAB’s run defense is in the 28th percentile in the same category.
• The same trend applies to explosive runs, where the Midshipmen reside in the 99th percentile and the Blazers occupy the 19th percentile. Gutierrez and Woodson are joined by FB Vic Listorti to form a trio of players with 100+ rushing yards on the year already.
• Burton could be under duress in this one. UAB’s offense owns a 34th-percentile figure for havoc rate allowed; Navy is in the 55th percentile in havoc produced. 
• One of these teams is much better at avoiding precarious downs. Per Fourth Down Data, the Midshipmen own the 35th-ranked early-down EPA/play (0.118). The Blazers’ mark is -0.045 (107th) on defense. 
• Navy has yet to not convert in the red zone through three games. UAB’s red-zone TD rate pales in comparison at 37.5%. 
• Despite being a notorious run-heavy program, the Midshipmen own a higher pass explosiveness rating (1.70) than UAB (1.41), according to Fourth and Short.

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The 2026 season hasn’t gotten off to the start that Navy or UAB had hoped for, but it’s early enough to turn things around. That starts with a Friday game in Birmingham, although one side seems to be in a bit better shape entering this one.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Navy vs. UAB picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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