The Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins game is set to begin at 12:15 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 10, with the Marlins returning a 1.69x payout if they win the bout on Peacock, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
These two teams have split the opening two games of the series. After Washington squeaked out a 3-2 win on Friday, Miami’s offense got the last laugh in an 8-7 triumph in Saturday's bounce-back performance.
Below, we'll break down our Nationals vs. Marlins prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, May 10
In Sunday’s series finale, Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara (4.44 xFIP across 51.2 innings) and Nationals SP Cade Cavalli (4.24 xFIP in 31.2 innings) will go head-to-head on the mound.
Alcantara has experienced an up-and-down start to the 2026 season, allowing at least 7 earned runs in two of his last five starts. According to Baseball Savant, Alcantara has recorded a 3.46 xERA in his eight starts.
Meanwhile, the Nationals’ lineup has been extremely dangerous at the plate, posting the eighth-ranked wRC+ (102) this season. Washington has scored the fourth-most runs (208) in the majors, behind only the Chicago Cubs (215), Atlanta Braves (214), and New York Yankees (209).
While Cavalli’s 1-2 record may not seem impressive, the right-hander has produced a solid 3.80 xERA and has allowed 3 or fewer runs in each of his last four outings.
Nationals vs. Marlins Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, May 10
The Marlins enter Sunday's game as a home favorite against the Nationals, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Nationals vs. Marlins game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Miami Marlins -1.5 (2.43x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Nationals 2.08x | Marlins 1.69x
Play the Nationals vs. Marlins winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction on Winner – 5/10/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Nationals vs. Marlins prediction on the winner for Sunday, May 10.
Lock in your Nationals vs. Marlins prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The Nationals are 6-3 straight up in their last nine games against the Marlins.
- According to Baseball Savant, Nationals SP Cade Cavalli owns an average fastball velocity of 96.1 mph, which ranks in the 75th percentile. Cavalli has also registered at least 10 strikeouts in two of his last three starts.
- The Nationals' right-hander also keeps the ball down, recording a 2.7% home run-to-fly ball rate while tallying a 44.7% groundball rate.
- Miami’s lineup has recorded the 18th-ranked wRC+ (96) in the majors and is tied for 19th in runs (163) this season.
- The Marlins have averaged 3.7 runs per contest over their last seven games but have scored 2 or fewer runs in three of those contests.
- Per Baseball Savant, Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara has recorded just a 16.5% strikeout rate, ranking in the 17th percentile.
- The Nationals have outscored the Marlins 52-42 in their last nine matchups, dating back to September 2025.
Nationals vs. Marlins Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/10/26
Here are the top Nationals vs. Marlins picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, May 10. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include SS CJ Abrams and SP Sandy Alcantara.
Nationals SS CJ Abrams vs. Marlins Projection: 0.5 Singles
- Abrams is hitting .290 (9-for-31) with a home run and 10 RBIs in his last eight games.
- The Nationals’ SS has tallied 6 hits across his last four games, including a 2-hit performance on Saturday.
- According to FanGraphs, Abrams has a stellar wRC+ of 186 against right-handed pitching in 2026.
- Per Baseball Savant, Abrams has registered an 11.2% barrel rate, sitting in the 73rd percentile.
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Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara vs. Nationals Projection: 1.5 Walks Allowed
- Alcantara has issued at least 2 free passes in six of his eight starts in 2026.
- According to Baseball Savant, Alcantara has registered an 8.3% walk rate, ranking in the 59th percentile.
- The Marlins’ SP has racked up 12 total walks across his last four starts.
- The Nationals have posted 145 walks on the season, which ranks 14th in the majors.
Add Sandy Alcantara to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Nationals vs. Marlins Picks on PrizePicks
The Nationals and Marlins have split the opening two games of the series, but both contests have been closely contested. Will Washington come out on top in the series finale on Sunday?
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Nationals vs. Marlins picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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