NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Predictions, Starting Lineup at Homestead-Miami

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race starts this afternoon on Sunday, November 8, at 3:00 p.m. ET at Homestead-Miami Speedway on NBC.

Sunday’s race features 267 laps spanning 400 miles at this intermediate track. The Chase for the Cup concludes today with a champion being crowned, and Kyle Larson is in line to win it.

It’s not about just showing up, but as long as things don’t go completely haywire for Larson, he is in line to win his second consecutive Cup title.

Below, we'll break down our NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race predictions and pick to win for Sunday’s race, including top driver picks for PrizePicks.

Make your NASCAR picks for the Cup Series Championship on PrizePicks now!

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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race, Top 10 Predictions for Homestead-Miami – Sunday, November 8

Larson owns a 67-point lead over Christopher Bell and a 70-point advantage over Denny Hamlin headed to Homestead. According to NASCAR.com, Larson needs only nine points to wrap up his third career championship.

What constitutes nine points in Sunday’s race? He can grab the title by finishing 28th or better, assuming he doesn’t capture any stage points. If he closes Top 3 in the first stage, he will get enough points to win the crown.

For Bell or Hamlin to pass Larson, they would have to finish first and have several other scenarios break their way.

Guess who was the champion in last March’s event at Homestead-Miami Speedway? Larson picked up his second career victory at this track after breaking through in 2022.

Bell won at Homestead in 2023, but closed 29th last year and didn’t lead for a single lap.

Hamlin has reached the winner’s circle three times in Miami with the last victory coming in 2020. Last March, he finished fifth and has led at least 15 laps in each of the past three events at this track.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Winner Payouts on PrizePicks

The favorite to win the Cup Series Championship Race is Ryan Blaney, entering Sunday's race (3:00 p.m. ET), according to PrizePicks Team Picks.

Blaney currently has a 5.26x payout ($100 pays out $526) if he wins, while Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Chase Briscoe are right behind him at a 5.55x payout to win at Homestead, according to PrizePicks.

Here are the payouts for drivers to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Winner from Homestead-Miami Speedway on PrizePicks. Make your Cup Series Championship Race pick on 'Yes' or 'No' to a driver to win.

Make your NASCAR picks for the Cup Series Championship Race on PrizePicks — and earn real money if you're right, available in Florida!

Payout multipliers listed below (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if your NASCAR predictions are correct; for example, 2x on a $100 entry pays $200 if correct on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states, including Florida. “Yes” payouts represent a specific outcome occurring, whereas "No" payouts indicate the opposite.

NASCAR Starting Lineup for Cup Series Championship Race: Briscoe Earns Pole Position

Qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race took place on Saturday afternoon. Briscoe captured his second pole in the last three weeks but looks for a better result after his first pole victory. He crashed out at Talladega two weeks ago and closed 33rd, his seventh finish of 30th or worse. 

Briscoe posted his best result in five Homestead races last March, placing fourth. In his last five events at intermediate tracks, Briscoe has won three times and finished fourth twice.

Hamlin has finished in the Top 4 in seven of nine races this season when starting on the front row. 

Here is the full NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race starting lineup at Homestead-Miami Speedway for Sunday’s race at 3:00 p.m. ET on NBC. 

Row 1: Chase Briscoe / Denny Hamlin

Row 2: Tyler Reddick / Kyle Larson

Row 3: Austin Cindric / Christopher Bell

Row 4: Chase Elliott / William Byron

Row 5: Ryan Blaney / Daniel Suarez

Row 6: Austin Hill / Michael McDowell

Row 7: Alex Bowman / Josh Berry

Row 8: Ross Chastain / Corey Heim 

Row 9: Chris Buescher / Bubba Wallace

Row 10: Joey Logano / Ty Gibbs 

Row 11: Austin Dillon / Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

Row 12: Connor Zilisch / Erik Jones

Row 13: Todd Gilliand / Justin Haley

Row 14: Zane Smith / Cole Custer

Row 15: AJ Allmendinger / Riley Herbst

Row 16: Ty Dillon / Ryan Preece

Row 17: Noah Gragson / Shane van Gisbergen

Row 18: Cody Ware / John H. Nemechek

Row 19: Casey Mears / JJ Yeley

Row 20: Chad Finchum / Brad Keselowski

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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Predictions, Driver Picks for Homestead-Miami

Here are three of the top Cup Series Championship Race picks to target in the NASCAR race from Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday. Top PrizePicks NASCAR picks are headlined by three drivers: Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and William Byron.

Ryan Blaney – 4.5 Finishing Position

Ryan Blaney to Finish Top 10 in Cup Series Championship Race via PrizePicks Team Picks: Yes 1.16x | No 1.47x

• Blaney seeks his first victory at Homestead in 12 tries, finishing second in 2023 and 2024.
• Following four consecutive Top-5 finishes, Blaney closed 38th and 35th in the past two races.
• Blaney has placed fifth or lower in six of eight races following a finish of 24th or worse.
• In 12 events at intermediate tracks this season, Blaney closed in the Top 4 once, finishing third at Charlotte in mid-October. 

Add Ryan Blaney to your PrizePicks NASCAR Picks for the Cup Series Championship Race

Tyler Reddick – 6.5 Finishing Position

Tyler Reddick to Finish Top 10 in Cup Series Championship Race via PrizePicks Team Picks: Yes 1.35x | No 1.53x

• Reddick owns four Top-4 finishes in six career Homestead races. He led for 97 laps in his lone victory at this track in 2024.
• In six of the last eight races, Reddick has closed eighth or lower, capped off by a 12th-place finish at Martinsville. 
• Reddick has closed higher than sixth in eight of 11 events starting on the first two rows.
• In the past seven races on intermediate courses, Reddick averaged a 15th-place finish.

Add Tyler Reddick to your PrizePicks NASCAR Picks for the Cup Series Championship Race

William Byron – 9.5 Finishing Position

William Byron to Finish Top 10 in Cup Series Championship Race via PrizePicks Team Picks: Yes 1.56x | No 1.03x

• It took 35 races this season, but Byron finally stood in the winner’s circle last Sunday at Martinsville. It marked only his second victory in the past 47 races.
• Byron seeks his second career Homestead win while finishing ninth or higher in four of the past six events at this track. 
• In eight of 12 intermediate track races, Byron has closed ninth or better. In two events he finished outside ninth, he crashed out at Nashville and Charlotte.
• Byron has closed the Chase on a high note, posting six Top-10 finishes in the past eight races.

Add William Byron to your PrizePicks NASCAR Picks for the Cup Series Championship Race

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Make NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Predictions on PrizePicks

The NASCAR season comes to a close today at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Can Larson do enough to win his third NASCAR championship? Even if Larson captures the title without winning the race, who will finish the 2026 campaign with a victory?

Don’t wait until lock — make your NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race predictions on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

There are unique picks on the NASCAR board for every race, including driver points and starting position; just pick at least two drivers to build your lineup on PrizePicks. Or, make your picks on race winners on Team Picks, now available in 36 states, including Florida!

Stay locked in to Playbook throughout the season for more NASCAR picks, predictions, and news every day.