The Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury game is set to tip off at 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, August 27, with the Mystics entering as 4.5-point favorites on the spread and returning a 1.49x payout to win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
For tonight's contest on Prime Video, the Mystics (23-15) seek to pick up back-to-back wins in Phoenix after defeating the Mercury on Tuesday evening. Washington could potentially surpass the Liberty for the sixth seed depending on tonight’s results.
The Mercury (13-25) have now dropped three straight games coming into tonight’s matchup. Washington would sweep the season series against Phoenix with a victory at Footprint Center this evening.
Below, we'll break down our Mystics vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Thursday's WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Mystics vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, August 27
Following a WNBA Finals appearance last season, the Mercury have been eliminated from playoff contention and are stuck in the bottom four of the league standings.
Nate Tibbetts' squad has never found a consistent rhythm and currently ranks in the bottom four in both offensive and defensive ratings, via WNBA.com. Phoenix suffered a 10-point loss to the Mystics two nights ago and is in danger of dropping all four games of this homestand.
That will be much easier said than done against a Mystics team that has completely turned their season around. Washington is the youngest team in the league by average player age, and that showed in the first half of the season.
After starting 4-6, they have surged to win 19 of their last 28 games and could realistically finish as a top-four seed with six games remaining in the regular season. Head coach Sydney Johnson had his team playing elite defense all year, and an overhauled, inside-heavy offensive system has taken the Mystics to another level.
Washington thrives on attacking the glass, generating second-chance points, and dominating the paint. Phoenix has been the third-worst rebounding team this season and was exposed on that front in Tuesday's meeting. The Mystics won the board count 35-26 and finished with 11 second-chance points.
Washington's interior dominance also opened up space for their shooters, with the Mystics hitting 9 3-pointers at a 42.9% clip from beyond the arc. Phoenix allows the second-highest 3-point percentage to opponents (36.0%) this season and gave up a mark +12.1% above Washington's season average in Tuesday's game.
The Mercury looked undersized against the Mystics on Tuesday. Another tough offensive night for Phoenix could be imminent, as the Mystics look to keep following the formula that has transformed their season.
Mystics vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, August 27
The Mystics enter Thursday’s game as 4.5-point road favorites against the Mercury, returning a 1.49x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Mystics vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Mystics vs. Mercury Injury Report for Thursday, August 27
Let’s dive into the full Mystics vs. Mercury injury report for Thursday, via WNBA.com.
Washington Mystics Injury Report
- None
Phoenix Mercury Injury Report
- G Kelsey Plum (leg) – Questionable
- F Marta Suarez (Concussion) – OUT
Mystics vs. Mercury Prediction on Over/Under – 8/27/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mystics vs. Mercury prediction on over/under for Thursday, August 27.
- The first two meetings between these teams had the over/under decided by 1 point each time. Tuesday's game finished with 178 combined points.
- Both teams enter tonight with identical 20-18 over/under records, with 52.6% of each side's games finishing over this season.
- The Mercury have been slightly more productive on offense when at home, averaging 85.7 PPG at the Footprint Center compared to 84.0 for the season.
- The Mystics' 82.9 PPG ranks as the third-lowest in the league, though they have averaged 94.0 PPG over their last four games, surpassing their season average in all four outings.
- Phoenix is averaging 86.0 PPG during the first three games of this homestand. Despite losing all three, two of those games finished above the total.
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Mystics vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 8/27/26
Here are the top Mystics vs. Mercury picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, August 27. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Shakira Austin and Alyssa Thomas.
Mystics C Shakira Austin vs. Mercury: 12.5 FG Attempted
- Austin has taken a significant offensive step forward in her fourth season as a Mystic, leading the team with 17.0 PPG.
- She averages 12.6 field goal attempts per game and had 11 points in just 24 minutes on Tuesday before sitting due a lopsided margin.
- Austin attempted 16 field goals in the first meeting between these teams and is averaging 14.7 attempts per game across 10 August appearances.
- She was averaging 13.3 field goal attempts in her last four games before Tuesday and has finished with 13 or more in 7 of 10 games this month.
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Mercury F Alyssa Thomas vs. Mystics: 16.5 Rebs + Asts
- Despite the team's difficult season, Thomas remains one of the most versatile players in the league, leading the WNBA with 8.3 assists per game.
- Only Wings F Jessica Shepard averages more combined rebounds and assists per game than Thomas. The Mercury big posts exactly 16.0 combined rebounds and assists per game.
- Thomas finished Tuesday's game with 16 combined rebounds and assists, just 4 rebounds short of a triple-double. She also finished her previous head-to-head meeting with the Mystics with 16 combined rebounds and assists.
- Her combined rebounds and assists average has climbed to 17.7 per game across nine appearances in August. Thomas also sat early in Tuesday's game due to the score and likely would have surpassed 16 had she played her usual minutes.
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The Mystics seek to pick up back-to-back wins at the Footprint Center and sweep the season series against last year's WNBA Finals runner-up. The Mercury hope to avoid a fourth straight loss and finish the final six games of the regular season on a positive note.
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