MLB Home Run Derby 2026 Predictions: Winner, Longest Home Run, Final Matchups

While it may not represent the statistical halfway point of the season, the 2026 MLB All-Star Break is a perfect time for everyone to assess the campaign to this point. 

A select handful of players have stood out enough to get invites to compete under the bright lights, and the Home Run Derby serves as a marquee event of the slate. This summer, it’s streaming on Netflix. 

Taking place at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, July 13 from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, there are a pair of Phillies in the eight-man field. Outside of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, though, there’s plenty of star power elsewhere. Which slugger will come out on top in this one?

Below, we'll break down our MLB Home Run Derby 2026 predictions, headlined by PrizePicks Team Picks payouts for players to win, as well as outcomes for the longest home run and a Home Run Derby finals matchup to consider. 

Make your MLB Home Run Derby 2026 predictions on PrizePicks now.

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MLB Home Run Derby Preview, Rules, Winner Payouts – Monday, July 13

Unlike in years past, the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby has an adjusted format that makes every single swing count. Instead of the traditional timer, a swing counter places even more pressure on hitters to maximize their opportunities in the batter’s box.

Round one features 20 allotted swings per player, followed by 15 each in rounds two and three. Any swing counts, regardless of its outcome. 

One caveat is that if someone slugs a homer on his last swing, he can continue batting until failure. MLB is doing away with bonuses in any round.

Bracket play still doesn’t exist in the opening round. Tiebreakers include home run distance for round one and a three-try swing-off in the ensuing rounds. Those with the four highest home run totals from round one will advance, with seeds matching up in a No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 format. 

MLB Home Run Derby Winner Payouts – Monday, July 13

Entering Monday’s contest, the field has combined for a staggering 186 home runs already. Schwarber leads the group — and the sport — with 32 of them, and Caglianone brings up the rear with 15. Don’t get it twisted, however, as any of these players could pop off for a three-round outburst here.

Here are the full payouts for the potential MLB Home Run Derby winners on PrizePicks:

Make your MLB Home Run Derby predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

MLB Home Run Derby 2026 Predictions, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/13/26

Without further ado, let’s examine the Home Run Derby field and determine which players could be worthy of consideration for Home Run Derby predictions on PrizePicks. 

Unless otherwise noted, all information below is from FanGraphs or Baseball Savant.

2026 MLB Home Run Derby Winner: Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone HR Derby Winner Payouts: 1.09x No | 6.25x Yes

• Caglianone’s year two breakout is officially here, evidenced by his .201 ISO, .461 SLG, and 114 wRC+ through 90 games. The month of June flashed his true upside, as those respective marks were .340, .649, and 182. 
• The former Florida standout's maximum exit velocity is a ridiculous 116.1 mph. When he clobbers a baseball, he might have best-in-class pop in the bat.
• The expected data indicate that “Cags” could be even better than he appears on the surface. There are gaps with his xBA (+.013) and xSLG (+.039) relative to his actual output.
• After hitting the ball on the ground at a 50% clip as a rookie, Caglianone is sending line drives 25.2% of the time — a 6.4% jump from 2025.
• Pull-side power is one of the best friends of a power hitter, especially if his thrower is delivering accurate pitches in the Derby. Caglianone is pulling the ball at a 48.2% rate, including an 18.8% pull-air percentage. 

Add Jac Caglianone to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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2026 MLB Home Run Derby Longest HR: Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker Longest HR Payouts: 1.16x No | 4.76x Yes

• Walker’s ISO (.238), SLG (.532), wRC+ (143), and home run total (22) are all easily career-high figures for the former first-round MLB Draft pick.
• A key change for Walker is accelerating his path, with his 86.1% fast-swing clip being 8.3% better than 2025’s final.
• Not many, if any, players swing the bat faster than the star outfielder. His 79.2 mph bat speed ranks in the 100th percentile.
• The Cardinals’ new franchise player is highly efficient in the box, with his 22.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio occupying the No. 12 spot in MLB through the All-Star Break. 
• Getting consistent, hard contact is the name of Walker’s game. The 24-year-old’s 94.2 mph average exit velocity (98th percentile) and 51.5 hard-hit rate (93rd) are elite.
• Walker’s average home run length is 406 feet, and he has 135 hard-hit balls of at least 95 mph. 

Add Jordan Walker to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

2026 MLB Home Run Derby Finals Matchup: Junior Caminero vs. Jac Caglianone

Junior Caminero vs. Jac Caglianone Finals Payouts: 1.02x No | 14.28x Yes

• Even while taking away batted-ball events by raising his walk rate by more than double from 2025 (6.3% to 12.9%), Caminero has made slight improvements in ISO (+.005) and SLG (.020) to help make up for it.
• Caminero’s 93.3 mph exit velocity is the best of his MLB tenure, as are his 88.2% fast-swing rate and 26.0% blast-contact share.
• The 23-year-old infielder swings an explosive bat and has the peripherals (79.9 mph bat speed and 51.8% hard-hit rate) to back it up.
• Caminero has an ideal attack angle on 62.5% of his swing paths, a massive difference from the MLB average of 51.0%. 
• Caglianone sits in the 98th percentile for hard-hit rate (56.0%) and the 97th percentile for bat speed (77.3 mph), forming a potentially lethal combo. 
• After posting a 24.2% infield fly ball clip in the minors last year, Caglianone’s mark is down to just 7.6% in the big leagues this season. 

Add Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make 2026 MLB Home Run Derby Picks on PrizePicks

With the trade deadline on the horizon, the MLB All-Star Break serves as a quick reset for front offices, coaches, players, and fans alike. The festivities are off and running soon — could stars like Caglianone or Caminero push for a Home Run Derby title?

Don’t wait until the swing counter becomes official. Make your 2026 MLB Home Run Derby picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks now and earn real money if you’re right. Whether you’re looking to make predictions on the MLB Home Run Derby winner, longest home runs, round-specific outcomes, or even matchups, there’s plenty to consider. 

Be sure to stay locked in with Playbook for daily MLB picks, predictions, news, and analysis every day through the end of the 2026 season.