#19 Missouri vs. #24 Mississippi State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – 9/26/26

The SEC will take center stage in Week 4 of the college football season when #24 Mississippi State hosts #19 Missouri on Saturday, September 26, at 7:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network. Mississippi State is a 5.5-point home favorite and returns a 1.42x payout with a win, via PrizePicks.

Missouri has started the 2026 season 3-0 and earned a 38-21 win against Kansas in the “Border War” earlier this month. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has also gotten off to a 3-0 start and topped South Carolina 41-34 in its most recent game. 

Below, we’ll break down our Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction and picks for Saturday night's game, including the spread, over/under, and player projections for PrizePicks.

Make your Missouri vs. Mississippi State picks on PrizePicks now!

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#19 Missouri vs. #24 Mississippi State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 26

Mississippi State has reached bowl eligibility in just one of the past three seasons under head coach Jeff Lebby. However, Mississippi State received a bowl invitation last year despite going 5-7 and lost to Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

The Bulldogs have gotten off to an impressive start in 2026, defeating Minnesota and South Carolina over the last two weeks. In the season's opening month, Mississippi State’s electric offense has been front and center.

QB Kamario Taylor has led the Bulldogs’ impressive offensive attack, completing 68.3% of his passes for 832 yards. His 11 passing TDs are tied for second nationally, with only USC QB Jayden Maiava throwing more (12), and he has four games played instead of Taylor's three. Taylor has also posted a 0.37 EPA/dropback this season, which ranks 24th among collegiate QBs.

While Taylor has been dangerous with his arm, the sophomore QB has been just as brilliant with his legs. The Bulldogs’ signal-caller has racked up 178 rushing yards and is averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

One of the biggest reasons for Taylor’s success has been as a result of the play of WR Anthony Evans III. Evans is tied for first in the SEC in receptions (20) and ranks second in receiving yards (294). The talented wideout has posted 100+ receiving yards in two games and recorded a TD catch in each of his three contests. 

Meanwhile, Missouri has also had an undefeated start to the year with wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kansas, and Troy. Most recently, Missouri took down Troy 27-17 in Week 3, but it wasn’t the cleanest performance from the Tigers.

The Tigers trailed 10-0 in the first quarter before scoring 24 unanswered points to take the lead. Ultimately, Missouri came away with the win but tallied just 230 total yards, and QB Austin Simmons was held to only 5.4 yards per pass attempt.

Overall, Simmons has been impressive since transferring to Missouri this season. The former Ole Miss QB has completed a career-best 69.1% of his passes for 652 yards and 8 TDs, while throwing no INTs in three games. With Simmons under center, Missouri has posted a 0.26 EPA per pass play this season (71st percentile), per Game on Paper.

Missouri also continues to heavily lean on RB Jamal Roberts on the ground. Roberts has carried the ball 63 times for 300 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and 3 TDs this season. The senior RB is receiving most of the touches out of the backfield, as 2025 Consensus All-American RB Ahmad Hardy recovers from a leg injury. 

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 26

Mississippi State enters Saturday’s game as a 5.5-point favorite against Missouri, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Missouri vs. Mississippi State, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under.

Make your Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Prediction on Spread – 9/26/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction on the spread for the Saturday, September 26 matchup.

• Mississippi State is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in 2026, while Missouri is 1-2.
• The Bulldogs have been an offensive juggernaut through three games, racking up the second-most yards per game nationally (544.7). 
• Mississippi State has posted a 0.37 EPA/rush this season, ranking sixth in the country. 
• The Bulldogs have averaged 244.0 rushing yards per game (fifth in the SEC) and 6.3 yards per carry as a team. RB Fluff Bothwell ranks fifth in the SEC in rushing yards (280) and 11th in yards per carry (5.8).
• Missouri has yielded just 171.0 passing yards per game, but its level of competition has been weak.
• Arkansas-Pine Bluff has averaged 173.8 passing yards per game (seventh in the SWAC), Kansas has put up 248.3 passing yards per game (ninth in the Big 12), and Troy has tallied 198.7 passing yards per contest (ninth in the Sun Belt).
• Mississippi State is on an entirely different level, averaging 300.7 yards through the air in three games. QB Kamario Taylor has thrown for 832 yards and 11 TDs during that span.

Lock in your Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff.

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/26/26

Here are the top Missouri vs. Mississippi State picks to target on Saturday, September 26. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include QB Austin Simmons and RB Fluff Bothwell.

Missouri QB Austin Simmons vs. Mississippi State: 230.5 Pass Yards

• Simmons has thrown for 250+ yards in two of his three games.
• The Missouri signal-caller has a 0.27 EPA/dropback in 2026, ranking 32nd among QBs nationally.
• Simmons averages 8.14 yards/dropback, also sitting 32nd among QBs across college football.
• The Mississippi State defense has posted a 0.07 EPA/pass allowed this season (73rd nationally).

Add Austin Simmons + Missouri to cover the spread on PrizePicks.

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Mississippi State RB Fluff Bothwell vs. Missouri: 89.5 Rush Yards

• Bothwell has carried the ball 48 times for 280 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 2 TDs in three games.
• The junior RB has registered a 10.35 EPA (29th nationally).
• Bothwell has rushed for 113+ yards in his last two games and averaged 5.8 yards per carry in those contests.
• While Missouri has a strong pass defense, the Tigers are more susceptible to the ground game. The Tigers have tallied a 0.01 EPA per rush this season (50th nationally).

Add Fluff Bothwell + Mississippi State to cover the spread on PrizePicks.

Make Missouri vs. Mississippi State Picks on PrizePicks

Mississippi State has been one of the nation's most lethal offenses throughout the opening month of the college football season. Can the Bulldogs take care of business at home against the Tigers in a high-profile SEC matchup?   

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Missouri vs. Mississippi State picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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