Saturday, April 4’s national semifinals in the NCAA Tournament feature one of the most anticipated matchups in recent memory, with the No. 1 seed Michigan Wolverines (35-3) facing the No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats (36-2) at 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV.
Michigan has won its four NCAA Tournament games by an average margin of +22.5 points per game, and Arizona is on a 13-game winning streak and carries a +20.5 PPG margin in the tournament.
This matchup is chock-full of 2026 NBA Draft prospects, too, turning our attention to Michigan vs. Arizona player picks and stats. Let’s break down three NCAA tournament picks for player projections on PrizePicks.
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Michigan vs. Arizona Picks, Stats for NCAA Tournament Round of 4
This is as good as it gets for a Round of 4 matchup. Bart Torvik ranks Michigan first in power rating (.9802), followed by Arizona in second place with its .9792 power rating.
As mentioned, each team holds an average margin surpassing +20.0 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. PrizePicks Team Picks gives the Wolverines (2.7x) and the Wildcats (2.85x) the shortest payouts to win the men’s college basketball national championship.
Michigan and Arizona have all the tools to win a national title, but only one squad can advance. This is a near pick 'em, with the Wolverines favored by 1.5 points for the spread paired with a 1.81x payout if they win. The Wildcats, meanwhile, have a 2x payout if they win via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
Each defense will be a tough nut to crack, as UM is third in adjusted defensive efficiency while U of A is first in the department. The Wolverines give up a 44.9% effective field goal percentage (first), compared to the Wildcats allowing only a 45.0% mark (second).
EvanMiya even has three of CBB’s top six Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) in this matchup: Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg (5.52), Michigan C Aday Mara (5.32), and Arizona C Motiejus Krivas (4.98).
But the Wolverines (fourth) and the Wildcats (seventh) are still in the top seven of adjusted offensive efficiency. Who could succeed for Michigan vs. Arizona player picks in the Round of 4?
Michigan vs. Arizona Player Picks for PrizePicks Today: 4/4/26
Here are the top Michigan vs. Arizona player picks to target for Saturday, April 4, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks are headlined by Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg, Arizona F Tobe Awaka, and Wildcat G Brayden Burries.
Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg vs. Arizona Projection: 17 Points
- Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg has looked every bit of a potential top 10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, averaging 21.0 points per game (PPG) in the NCAA Tournament.
- Alongside eclipsing his 15.2 PPG average in the tournament, Yaxel is shooting an absurd 59.2% from the field and 50.0% on 3-pointers in his last four games.
- Arizona allows 23.6 attempted triples per game (42nd percentile), and Lendeborg leads Michigan with 4.5 3-point shots per contest.
- Arizona F Ivan Kharchenkov will likely defend Lendeborg, and his 3.23 DBPR is the lowest mark in the Wildcats’ starting lineup.
- Excluding his 9-point performance in the first round, the UAB transfer has posted 25.0 PPG over his past three appearances.
- Across six matchups against top 15 defenses in efficiency this season, Lendeborg posted 21.8 PPG.
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Arizona F Tobe Awaka vs. Michigan Projection: 6.5 Rebounds
- According to Bart Torvik, Arizona F Tobe Awaka’s 20.1% offensive rebounding rate leads college basketball.
- Paired with his 26.2% defensive rebounding percentage (19th), Awaka is one of the nation’s most efficient rebounders.
- In only 20.9 minutes per game, the senior forward leads the Wildcats with 9.1 rebounds per game (RPG). That’s 0.44 rebounds per minute!
- Michigan is elite on the glass, ranking in the 91st percentile of offensive and defensive rebounding rates.
- Awaka has averaged only 16.5 minutes per game in the NCAA Tournament, but Arizona could lean on its top rebounder vs. an exceptional Wolverines frontcourt.
- Opponents log 8.9 offensive boards per game vs. Michigan (47th percentile), giving Awaka an angle for corralling extra possessions.
Arizona G Brayden Burries vs. Michigan Projection: 17 Points
- The 3-point battle could be the X-factor tonight, as Michigan’s defense is also susceptible from deep by allowing 27.2 3-point shots per game (seventh percentile).
- Arizona G Brayden Burries tops the Wildcats with 4.4 attempted treys per contest while shooting an efficient 40.2% from beyond the arc.
- U of A’s leading scorer (16.1 PPG) has increased his average to 17.8 PPG in the NCAA Tournament, partially backed by a jaw-dropping 68.4% 3-point percentage.
- Burries’ odd-defying 3-point percentage is on solid volume, too, recording 4.8 attempted triples per game in the tournament.
- With the Wolverines ceding 8.3 3-pointers per game (29th percentile), the standout freshman could stay scorching hot from deep.
Make Michigan vs. Arizona Picks on PrizePicks
Each defense allows plenty of 3-point shots, providing Lendeborg and Burries with the chance to flourish. Plus, Awaka could give Arizona an advantage on the glass thanks to his incredible offensive rebounding efficiency.
For tonight’s razor-thin margin in Michigan-Arizona, who could lift their team to a victory and national championship game appearance?
You can make your Michigan vs. Arizona picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
