The No. 1-seeded Arizona Wildcats head into the weekend two wins away from claiming the school’s second-ever basketball national title, and its first since 1997.
The Wildcats are in the National Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament, facing fellow No. 1 seed Michigan for the right to play again on Monday night. Arizona and Michigan are set to tip off at 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV, with the Wildcats currently a 1.5-point underdog.
Below, we’ll dive into why the Wildcats not only could knock off Michigan, but why Arizona basketball can win the National Championship and cut down the nets in Indianapolis.
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Why Arizona Can Win the National Championship
Here are the payouts for each team to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Payouts to Win NCAA Tournament
- Michigan Wolverines: 2.7x
- Arizona Wildcats: 2.77x
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 5x
- UConn Huskies: 6.25x
CBB futures payouts are live as of writing but are subject to change.
Wildcats Are Battle-Tested & Can't Be Counted Out
Arizona spent 10 weeks as the No. 1 team in the country, starting the season 23-0. Back-to-back losses to No. 9 Kansas and No. 16 Texas Tech by a combined seven points are the only losses for Arizona all season.
The Wildcats have wins over 13 ranked teams, including semifinalist UConn, defending champion Florida, as well as Alabama, Houston, Iowa State, Purdue, and the aforementioned Kansas.
The Wildcats have been dominant in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, winning all four games by 12 or more points. After beating Long Island by 34 and Utah State by 12 to advance to San Jose, Arizona beat No. 4 Arkansas by 21 and No. 2 Purdue by 15.
Per Evan Miya, the Wildcats have never had a possession in a game this season in which the outcome was already out of hand in a loss. Zero. Not one.
By comparison, Michigan had six, Illinois had 18, and UConn had 19. Arizona is seemingly in every game until the final whistle.
Elite Eight-Man Rotational Depth
With a roster that has seven players averaging at least 8.3 points per game, the Wildcats have arguably the deepest group in the country. Arizona has projected first-round picks C Motiejus Krivas, G Brayden Burries and F Koa Peat, as well as Big 12 Player of the Year G Jaden Bradley.
Burries leads the team with 16.1 PPG, 14th-best in the Big 12 Conference. The freshman guard averaged 19.5 PPG during the West Regional, leading the team with 23 points vs. Arkansas in the Round of 16.
Peat, who missed part of Arizona’s loss to Texas Tech earlier this season, earned West Regional MVP after averaging 17.5 points and 6.8 rebounds over the four games. He's second on the Wildcats in scoring at 14.1 PPG.
Bradley put up 13.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game in league play. He scored 17 or more points seven times in Big 12 outings. Krivas (10.4 PPG and 8.2 RPG) joined Bradley and Burries on the All-Big 12 First Team, while Peat was Third Team.
Meanwhile, senior F Tobe Awaka was the unanimous choice for Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year, averaging 9.6 points and 9.5 rebounds off the bench. Per KenPom, he was the top offensive rebounder in the country.
The Metrics Say So
It should come as no surprise that the Wildcats, as deep as any team we've seen in the last decade and who have played one of the harder schedules in the country, are also well-liked by the researchers who created the top college basketball metrics.
Arizona is second overall in the country on KenPom (yes, to Michigan) but is slightly ahead in offensive efficiency (fourth at 128.6) and is second in defensive efficiency (89.8).
Per Bart Torvik, the Wildcats have the best defense. Arizona also has the ability to generate second-chance points, proven by its elite 38.3% offensive rebounding clip (99th percentile).
The Wildcats tally 60.6 shots per game (81st percentile) and sitting in the 87th percentile for quickest adjusted tempo.
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Make NCAA Tournament Picks on PrizePicks
Can Arizona, one of the top teams all season, notch two more wins and earn its first title in nearly three decades? Before the Wildcats get to the title game, they have to go through a Michigan squad that also spent time at No. 1 in the polls.
You can make your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, including on teams to win the National Semifinal and National Championship.
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