Mercury vs. Aces Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Saturday, July 11

The WNBA schedule for Saturday, July 11 features multiple high-profile matchups, and it’s capped off by a clash between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces at 6 p.m. ET on Peacock. 

This battle is between teams trending in opposite directions, and PrizePicks Team Picks’ data for the weekend outing echoes that sentiment. Las Vegas is favored by a whopping 9.5 points in front of the home crowd, also returning a 1.21x payout with an outright victory. Can Phoenix pull off a shocking upset?

Below, we'll break down our Mercury vs. Aces prediction and picks for Saturday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Mercury vs. Aces prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Mercury vs. Aces Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, July 11

Given how bad they’ve been this year, it feels like forever ago that the Mercury were competing for a WNBA title. In reality, it was just one season ago that Phoenix dominated en route to a 27-17 record and had one of the premier teams in the sport.

Unfortunately for the Mighty Mercury, they haven’t lived up to their reputation some 23 games into the year. Phoenix’s 8-15 record trails only the 6-18 Seattle Storm for the worst in the Western Conference, and neither side of the ball is faring particularly well. Aside from G-F Kahleah Copper and F Alyssa Thomas, there isn’t much to offer in the form of promise. 

The Aces, meanwhile, have kept the good times rolling and have won three of the last four championships. Head coach Becky Hammon’s crew simply maintains dominance, evidenced by a combined 133-49 record since she took over in 2022. To close out the month of June, Las Vegas dropped the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup final to the New York Liberty.

Star power and depth are the names of the game for the Aces. C A’ja Wilson remains the leading MVP candidate thanks to her absurd stat line of 26.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Guards Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray are also chipping in their fair share of production. 

These two squads have already faced off twice this season. In the first two of four 2026 head-to-head games, they split the series. Phoenix won in 99-66 blowout fashion to kick off its season, then Las Vegas notched an 86-76 triumph on June 17. 

Mercury vs. Aces Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, July 11

The Aces enter Saturday’s game as 9.5-point home favorites against the Mercury, returning a 1.21x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Mercury vs. Aces game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Las Vegas Aces -9.5 (1.96x payout)
• Over/Under: 169.5 (1.78x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Mercury 4x | Aces 1.21x

Make your Mercury vs. Aces prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Mercury vs. Aces Injury Report for Saturday, July 11

Let’s dive into the full Mercury vs. Aces injury report for Saturday, July 11, via WNBA.com.

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• F Natasha Mack (foot): OUT
• G Sami Whitcomb (knee): Questionable

Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

• F Janiah Barker (leg): OUT
• G Dana Evans (leg): Questionable

Mercury vs. Aces Prediction on Spread – 7/11/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mercury vs. Aces prediction on the spread for Saturday, July 11’s game. 

• Despite being able to defend home court and remain viable in front of their fans, the Aces are just 4-6 against the spread as home favorites this campaign. As road underdogs, the Mercury are 6-5 ATS.
• There doesn’t seem to be as wide of a gap between these two teams as one may think. According to databallr, Las Vegas (+5.0) is only four spots ahead of Phoenix (-2.3) in net rating. 
• If the Mercury can set the tone early, it could bode well for them down the stretch. Phoenix is the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the first quarter (22.1 PPG), while Las Vegas’ first-frame scoring defense is ninth (21.7 PPG). 
• The overall rebounding edge might go to the Aces, but keep an eye on how many defensive boards they surrender. Vegas is 11th in that category with a 76.3% clip; Phoenix is fourth at securing them to the tune of a 77.0% rate.
• The Aces don’t force many turnovers, sitting second-to-last at just 12.5 each time out. That could be good news for a Mercury program that’s already decent at protecting the rock (13.8 TO/G, fifth). 

Lock in your Mercury vs. Aces prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA game.

Mercury vs. Aces Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/11/26

Here are the top Mercury vs. Aces picks to target on Saturday, July 11. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include G-F Kahleah Copper, C A’ja Wilson, and G Jackie Young. 

Mercury G-F Kahleah Copper vs. Aces: 20.5 Points

• Copper is enjoying one of the best seasons of her 11-year career, pouring in 20.8 PPG through 22 contests.
• The veteran wing is taking a career-high 6.3 3-pointers each night. She’s only making 28.1% of them, but that mark is up to 39.3% in her last five bouts.
• Anything from floater range and in is a good shot for Copper. She’s converting on 68.5% of her looks from 0-3 feet and 48.9% from 3-10 feet. Both rank in the top three for her WNBA tenure.
• In addition to boasting a 29.8% usage rate (97th percentile, per databallr), Copper’s 8.1 unassisted PPG puts her in the 85th percentile. 

Add Kahleah Copper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Aces C A’ja Wilson vs. Mercury: 34.5 Pts + Rebs

• Wilson’s per-game scoring and rebounding average sits at 35.5 entering Saturday’s game in Las Vegas. 
• In her return from injury on Thursday against the Portland Fire, the superstar big dropped 32 points and 10 boards on 10-of-19 shooting.
• An improved shot from distance is helping Wilson in 2026. She’s matching a personal record with 2.3 3-pointers attempted each game, making 41.3% of them.
• Wilson is a monster on the defensive glass, posting a 22.4% D-rebounding clip (94th percentile). 

Add A’ja Wilson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Aces G Jackie Young vs. Mercury: 28.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Young routinely fills up the box score for Las Vegas, as her PRA average resides at 27.8 on the year. 
• On top of being a threat from deep, the star guard is an effective scorer inside the arc, as her “worst” spot on the floor is still a solid 42.9% from 16 feet to the 3-point line.
• Young is a decent defensive rebounder, owning an 11.4% share (51st percentile). 
• Despite her usage rate dropping 1% year over year, Young’s assist percentage is up 2.2%.

Add Jackie Young to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Mercury vs. Aces Picks on PrizePicks

It’s been tough sledding for Phoenix to this point, but does a 4-6 record in the last 10 signal that things could be on the upswing soon? A big-time win over Las Vegas on the road this weekend would undoubtedly help that cause, but the Aces haven’t been thrown off by many teams so far.

Which side will come out on top Saturday night? Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Mercury vs. Aces picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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