A battle in the state of Texas takes place on Saturday, as the new-look Houston Rockets host the rebuilding Dallas Mavericks to cap off the day’s NBA slate.
The nighttime clash (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC) features a critical matchup: Rockets star F Kevin Durant vs. Mavericks rookie F Cooper Flagg. Highlights could be produced en masse in this one, making it a must-watch bout.
Below, we’ll break down our Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction and picks for Saturday night’s game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Just a season ago, the Rockets announced their improvement to the world with a 52-win regular season. That was good for second in the Western Conference, and they’re 2.5 games out of the same slot in 2025-26. With that said, they’re also just half a game away from dropping into the play-in picture.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, began this year 5-15 with Flagg struggling. Since then, they’re an even 14-14, including 5-5 in their last 10. Banged-up Dallas is 3.5 games out of a play-in spot.
Saturday marks the 205th all-time regular-season meeting between Dallas and Houston. The Rockets own a 106-98 series advantage, although the Mavericks have won both matchups this season.
Mavericks vs. Rockets Over/Under, Spread
The Mavericks enter Saturday’s game as 11.5-point road underdogs, returning a 4.16x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Rockets are home favorites with a 1.2x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Houston Rockets -11.5
- Over/Under: 223.5
- Game Winner Payout: Mavericks 4.16x | Rockets 1.2x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Rockets Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Mavericks vs. Rockets injury report for Saturday, via NBA.com.
Mavericks Injury Report
- C Anthony Davis (finger): OUT
- C Moussa Cisse (G-League): Probable
- PG Ryan Nembhard (G-League): Probable
Rockets Injury Report
- C Steven Adams (ankle): OUT
Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction on Saturday, January 31.
- Neither one of these squads thrives in its particular home/road scenario here. Houston is just 8-11 against the spread as a home favorite, and Dallas is 5-8 ATS as a road underdog.
- The Mavericks love to get out and run, ranking second with an average of 19.1 fastbreak points per game. They’re also fourth in paint scoring at 53.6 PPG.
- On defense, the Rockets sit outside the top 10 in fastbreak prevention (14.8 PPG) and paint scoring allowed (49.5 PPG).
- Houston’s offense produces the 17th-most PPG (116.1) and ranks 24th in 2-point shooting percentage (52.9).
- Saturday’s game is between clubs that sit 18th (Houston, 53.8%) and 21st (Dallas, 53.3%) in effective field goal percentage.
Mavericks vs. Rockets Picks for PrizePicks Today: Saturday, January 31
Here are three top Mavericks vs. Rockets picks to target for Saturday, January 31 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by F Cooper Flagg, F Kevin Durant, and PG Amen Thompson.
Mavericks F Cooper Flagg vs. Rockets Projection: 29.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Flagg averages 30.1 combined points, rebounds, and assists per game. In the month of January, that PRA mark is up to 30.8.
- The No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick leads all rookies in PPG (19.5) and is top-three in RPG (6.5), APG (4.1), and steals per game (1.3).
- Since the start of December, Flagg boasts an impressive 26.4% usage rate, which gives him plenty of on-ball opportunities.
- In that same span, the former Duke standout’s assist rate (20.5%) and turnover clip (10.6%) are improvements over his season-long figures (18.5% and 11.2%).
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Rockets F Kevin Durant vs. Mavericks Projection: 31.5 Pts + Rebs
- Through 44 games, Durant averages 31.9 combined points and rebounds per game. That mark is way up to 34.4 this calendar year.
- Per NBARAPM, Durant’s 27.8 true shot attempts per 100 and +5.8% relative true shooting percentage are both 92nd-percentile benchmarks.
- Despite KD’s 8.1 rebounding clip being his worst since his rookie campaign, he ranks fourth among all forwards who log 30+ minutes per contest in rebound chance rate (65.1%).
- The Mavericks rank 27th in both offensive (12.3) and defensive (34.5) rebounds ceded on a nightly basis.
Rockets PG Amen Thompson vs. Mavericks Projection: 22.5 Pts + Asts
- On the year, Thompson brings home 23.5 points and assists on average. That’s held true in his last dozen games (23.7).
- Even with very limited 3-point volume, Thompson ranks in the 81st percentile in shot usage, per databallr.
- The third-year man owns career highs in usage share (20.5%) and assist rate (20.7%) with the addition of Durant.
- Dallas yields the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the PG position (52.09), via FantasyPros.
Make Mavericks vs. Rockets Picks on PrizePicks
Mavericks vs. Rockets picks aren’t the only avenue hoops fans have to getting in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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