Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi French Open Prediction, Pick – Wednesday, June 3

If you told a tennis fan before the 2026 French Open that there would not only be three Italians in the quarterfinals, but none of them would be named Jannik Sinner, they would’ve thought you were nuts.

Well, three non-Sinner Italians did in fact achieve that feat, and two of them will face off in Wednesday’s primetime night session at Roland Garros: Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi.

Below, we’ll break down our Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi prediction, recent form, and pick for the French Open men's singles quarterfinal, including a PrizePicks pick. 

The match is slated to start at approximately 2:15 p.m. ET, though it could begin later if the matches ahead of it go long. This year’s French Open is being covered on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max.

Make your French Open predictions on PrizePicks for today’s matches now!

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Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi Prediction, Favorite for French Open Quarterfinals

Below are the payouts for who will win today’s Berrettini vs. Arnaldi match, via PrizePicks Team Picks. 

Matteo Berrettini: 1.51x
Matteo Arnaldi: 2.43x

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout means the result will return $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 35 states.

Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi Prediction for the French Open — Wednesday, June 3

Match Winner Payouts via PrizePicks: Berrettini 1.51x | Arnaldi 2.43x
Tournament Round: Men's Singles Quarterfinals
2026 Record Entering the French Open: Berrettini 8-9 | Arnaldi 2-6
Head-to-Head Record: First career meeting
Scheduled Time: Not before 2:15 p.m. ET
How to Watch: TNT/HBO Max

The 2026 records for these Italians don’t exactly scream “major quarterfinal” — nor do their rankings outside the top 100 entering the tournament. 

However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, particularly when it comes to the favored Matteo Berrettini.

That’s because Berrettini was once the world No. 6 in 2022 but has been plagued by injuries ever since. In fact, the last time he even participated in the French Open was in 2021.

Seeing as Berrettini entered Roland Garros with an 8-9 clay record across all levels (including Challenger matches) this season, we probably shouldn’t expect peak Berrettini to show up on Wednesday. But it’s a reminder of how dangerous a healthy Berrettini can be. 

Even with all Berrettini’s setbacks over the years, the 30-year-old has maintained a 69.6% win rate on the surface.

While Arnaldi hasn’t reached the same heights as Berrettini (career-high world No. 30 in 2024), he’s also five years younger. An injury slowed the start to his 2026 campaign, but Arnaldi built up some steam over this clay season with a Challenger title in Cagliari, winning seven of his last eight matches across all levels before coming to Paris.

However, even with this being Arnaldi’s best career surface, his 52.9% win rate on clay pales in comparison to Berrettini.

Further, despite being the younger player, fatigue could be an issue for Arnaldi after a fourth-round marathon against Frances Tiafoe.

In fact, all four of Arnaldi’s matches have gone four or five sets, resulting in him logging 17 hours and 42 minutes of court time. 

While it hasn’t been a walk in the park for Berrettini, either, his 13 hours and 11 minutes on court are much more palatable, particularly with his most recent match ending in straight sets.

With Berrettini seemingly healthy again and looking to have a rest advantage, he could have the upper hand against his countryman.

Make your Berrettini vs. Arnaldi prediction for the French Open on PrizePicks now!

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Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi Pick for the French Open

Matteo Berrettini — 20.5 Fantasy Score

At the French Open, Berrettini has scored 29, 26.5, 16.5, and 25.5 fantasy points on PrizePicks. His tournament-low 16.5 fantasy score came in his only five-setter thus far. 

Berrettini has won a whopping 83% of his first-serve points here and has produced the event’s sixth-most aces (46). Meanwhile, Arnaldi has been just okay returning serve, winning 38% of his receiving points.

This is just the third time Arnaldi has ever advanced past the third round of a major, so this is unfamiliar territory for him, as well. This will be Berrettini’s seventh appearance in a major quarterfinal. 

Likewise, Arnaldi has never won a tour-level title — or made a tour-level final, whereas Berrettini is a 10-time champion, with six on clay.  

On PrizePicks, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.

Make Your French Open Predictions on PrizePicks

This battle of Matteos in the French Open men’s quarterfinal should be a fun one to wrap up Wednesday’s tennis slate. If Berrettino wins, it will be his first major semifinal appearance since the 2022 Australian Open. For Arnaldi, a victory would put him into his first-ever Grand Slam semi.

Don’t wait until lock — make your French Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 35 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily French Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.