First pitch for the Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers game is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 28, with the Dodgers entering as home favorites and returning a 1.49x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.
Today’s game is the opener of a three-game series between these two 2025 division winners, and it'll be the only time these two teams play this season. Both squads are coming into tonight’s game on the heels of a loss, but it's the Mariners who need the game more in the midst of a tight AL West race.
Which team will be able to crack the win column tonight?
Below, we'll break down our Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction and picks for Tuesday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Mariners vs. Dodgers on PrizePicks now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Mariners vs. Dodgers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, July 28
Prior to the All-Star break, the Mariners were in hot pursuit of the AL West division lead; that chase has come to a brief halt, as they've lost five of their last six games. Still, they sit just 2.5 games behind the Texas Rangers for the division lead and are perhaps the most deserving team for the crown with their +8 run differential leading the AL West.
The Mariners' pitching is always near the top of the league, but what made them so good last year was their offense, which was tied for second in the majors in wRC+ (+113). If they want to win the AL West for the second year in a row, they'll need more out of the current version of their offense that ranks just 15th in wRC+ (100).
A lot of that offensive difference comes down to C Cal Raleigh, who's sitting on just 10 home runs after launching 60 of them last season en route to the Home Run crown. His .165 average and 69 wRC+ are also miles away from his .247 average and 161 wRC+ in 2025.
There isn’t much left to say about the Dodgers, who continue to light up the league, owning a league-best 67-39 record and topping the league in run differential (+155).
They own a 12.5-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the NL West crown, and perhaps the scariest part about this team is it doesn’t feel as though it's truly put it all together yet.
Mariners vs. Dodgers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, July 28
The Dodgers enter Tuesday’s game as home favorites against the Mariners, returning a 1.49x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Mariners vs. Dodgers game on PrizePicks.
Play the Mariners vs. Dodgers spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Mariners vs. Dodgers Prediction on Winner – 7/28/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction on the winner for Tuesday, July 28.
Lock in your Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction on PrizePicks now.
Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.
- The Mariners own a dreadful 20-34-0 (37%) against-the-spread record on the road, the worst in baseball.
- Dodgers SP Justin Wrobleski has been phenomenal, boasting a minuscule 2.62 ERA and 3.26 FIP. He also has a FIP of 2.94 in Los Angeles, compared to 3.54 on the road.
- On the flip side, Mariners SP Luis Castillo is in the midst of the worst season of his career, owning career highs in ERA (4.85), xERA (4.42), FIP (4.37) and xFIP (4.5). He's been much worse on the road with a 5.05 FIP away from home but a 3.60 mark in Seattle.
- Castillo also owns notable L/R splits, including a 5.45 FIP against LHB compared to a 2.89 FIP against RHB.
- A strength of Seattle’s has always been its dominant bullpen, but this season it's the Dodgers who rank one spot ahead of them (seventh vs. eighth) in season-long bullpen xFIP.
Mariners vs. Dodgers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/28/26
Here are the top Mariners vs. Dodgers picks to target on Tuesday, July 28. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Luis Castillo and Shohei Ohtani.
Mariners P Luis Castillo vs. Dodgers: 4.5 Strikeouts
- Castillo's worst season carries over into the strikeout department, where he owns a career-low 7.99 K/9.
- He hasn't surpassed 4 strikeouts in six straight starts, and the last time he did so was almost two months ago with a 5-strikeout performance on June 6.
- I touched upon how brutal of a matchup this is for Castillo due to his immense L/R splits. He's set to face at least six LHB tonight and owns a 6.91 K/9 against LHB, compared to a 9.45 K/9 against RHB.
- In fact, Castillo’s worst split is on the road against left-handed hitters, where he has a 6.56 FIP, a 3.07 BB/9 and just a 6.44 K/9.
Add Luis Castillo to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani vs. Mariners: 1.5 Total Bases
- Castillo owns a disastrous 40.4% hard-hit rate on the road against lefties and has given up 2.45 HR/9 in that same situation. Ohtani has a 50.3% hard-hit rate against righties in 2026.
- Shohei also owns an incredible 152 wRC+ at home compared to a 136 wRC+ on the road while also slugging 13 of his 22 home runs in Los Angeles.
- Ohtani has 4 hits in 11 at-bats against Castillo in his career (.364 average), with 3 being of the extra-base variety.
- Ohtani's best split this season is actually home vs. lefties, where he owns an otherworldly 163 wRC+.
Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Mariners vs. Dodgers Picks on PrizePicks
The Seattle Mariners need to get things back on track to stay competitive in a tight three-team race for the AL West crown, but they face a tough challenge in Los Angeles. Which team will take the 1-0 lead in this season series tonight?
Don’t wait until lock — make your Mariners vs. Dodgers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on today's MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB World Series.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
