The 1:00 p.m. ET slate for NFL Week 9 on Sunday, November 8, features three games with at least a 5.5-point favorite for the spread on PrizePicks. That includes the Lions (-6.5) visiting the Dolphins, including Detroit’s 1.29x payout if it wins.
In a loaded NFC North with four winning teams, the Lions are heating up on a three-game winning streak, as they handed the Vikings their first loss of the season last week. Detroit has some injury concerns ahead of this one, perhaps leading to a lower point spread than expected vs. a reeling 1-6 Dolphins team, who lost 24-19 vs. the Patriots in Week 8.
Below, we’ll dive into our Lions vs. Dolphins prediction for NFL Week 9, featuring player projections on PrizePicks.
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Lions vs. Dolphins Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NFL Week 9 – Sunday, November 8
The Dolphins have yet to be favored this season, and that continues on Sunday with the Lions as 6.5-point favorites for the spread today, per PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for the Lions vs. Dolphins on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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From Weeks 1 to 5, the Lions totaled 32.8 points per game (PPG) while allowing 29.6 PPG. That led to an up-and-down 3-2 stretch, but Detroit’s defense finally has signs of life after allowing only 16.0 PPG over the last two contests.
But limiting the Vikings — who have a 37.7% success rate (31st) via RBSDM — to 15 points isn’t earth-shattering. In Week 7, the Lions also held a Packers team with a 40.0% success rate (28th) to 17 points.
Regardless, this is a step in the right direction when this unit yielded 30 points to the Saints and 24 to the Jets earlier in the season. In fact, the Lions gave up a 48.4% success rate (28th) over the first five games compared to 39.0% (sixth) in the previous two.
Plus, Detroit benefits from drawing another weak offense, as the Dolphins sport -0.047 EPA per play (23rd) and a 40.4% success rate (27th) while averaging 16.7 PPG (31st). Miami has improved its production to 23.7 PPG in the last three, though, including an exceptional 47.1% success rate (eighth).
Since Week 5, Phins QB Malik Willis has a 51.9% success rate (sixth), showcasing why he received a three-year, $67.5 million contract in the offseason.
This season is likely a wash, proven by a 2.04x payout to reach 4+ wins this season, per PrizePicks. But if Willis continues to play well, next season could give Dolphins fans something to look forward to. That’s even more the case if Miami can secure Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith in the 2027 NFL Draft, as he currently has a 3.22x payout to be the #1 pick in the draft.
The Dolphins may continue to lean on Willis’ arm in an attempt to keep up with an explosive Lions offense racking up 29.0 PPG (third). Plus, Miami’s backfield could be thin with RBs Jaylen Wright (quad) and Kaytron Allen (quad) questionable.
Lions C Cade Mays (ankle), CB D.J. Reed (hip), and EDGE DJ Wonnum (concussion) are out. While S Kerby Joseph (knee) returned to practice this week, his season debut will have to wait. Further, LB Jack Campbell is now on injured reserve following last week’s scary neck injury.
Adding to a lengthy injury report, Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (rib) is questionable. If he can’t go, Detroit may lean on RB Jahmyr Gibbs even more, adding to its 43.35% rush success rate (18th).
The weather is something to watch as well, with a 60% chance of rain during the afternoon in Miami, via AccuWeather.
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Lions vs. Dolphins Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 9 – 11/8/26
The over is 5-2 for the Lions this season, and it’s 3-0 for the Dolphins’ last two contests. However, Detroit is coming off back-to-back unders thanks to the defense producing its best outings.
The Lions have given up only 70.5 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry in that two-game split. That’s further supported by a 37.2% rush success rate allowed (11th) across the season. A limited run game would be a major issue for a Dolphins team carrying a 48.74% rush play rate (seventh), and a 71% run block win rate (26th) doesn’t help Miami’s case, per ESPN.
Obvious passing situations sounds like a disaster since the Phins allow a 10.29% sack rate (31st). Lions EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (5.0 sacks) and DT Alim McNeill (4.5 sacks) are on the other side, contributing to a 59% pass rush win rate (third) and 30.9% pressure rate (13th), per FTN.
Detroit has given up 276.6 passing yards per game (32nd), but it’s not as bad as it initially looks; the Lions have a 36.1% tight coverage rate (third) and yield a 54.3% open rate (sixth).
Explosives have simply been back-breaking, with Detroit ceding a 16.9% explosive play rate against the pass (fourth). However, the Dolphins’ struggles in pass protection ease that concern, and getting Lions S Brian Branch back in the lineup has made an immediate impact over the last two.
Frankly, the Dolphins may be on the unfortunate end of facing the Lions when they’re hitting their stride. Detroit QB Jared Goff (0.251 EPA per play; 11th) is playing some of his best football, and his 15 passing TDs, 1 INT, and 7.9 yards per passing attempt can expose a Miami defense allowing 8.2 yards per passing attempt (32nd).
If Goff is kept clean, which seems likely considering Detroit’s 54% pass block win rate (seventh), the Phins could be in for a long day at the office.
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Lions vs. Dolphins Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/8/26
Here are the top Lions vs. Dolphins picks to target on Sunday, November 8. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include TE Sam LaPorta and WR Caleb Douglas.
Lions TE Sam LaPorta vs. Dolphins: 48.5 Receiving Yards
- After producing 86.0 receiving yards per game over Weeks 4 and 5, Sam LaPorta had 18 and 33 receiving yards in his last two.
- However, he still logs 6.4 targets per game, and his 18.0% target share is tied with WR Jameson Williams and RB Jahmyr Gibbs for the second-highest total on the team.
- If WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is out, his 31.1% target share opens up a void. With the Dolphins allowing a league-worst 53.7% dropback success rate, Detroit will likely attack this secondary regardless of St. Brown’s status.
- According to Pro Football Reference, the Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to TEs.
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Dolphins WR Caleb Douglas vs. Lions: 40.5 Receiving Yards
- When Caleb Douglas has gotten the ball, he’s must-see TV with 17.4 yards per catch. That holds exposure to an average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.3.
- According to Pro Football Focus, Douglas boasts 8.7 yards after the catch per reception, and the Lions are allow an alarming 11.1% explosive rate (third worst).
- Detroit runs man coverage at the 13th-highest clip (33.6%). Douglas touts a 49.7% DVOA vs. man compared to 4.7% against zone coverages.
- In four appearances, Douglas is averaging 56.5 receiving yards per game. A potential negative game script should give the rookie more chances to feast on Sunday.
Add Caleb Douglas to your PrizePicks lineup.
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The Lions are heating up on a three-game winning streak, and the Dolphins could be headed for a seventh loss, whether Amon-Ra St. Brown is in the lineup or not. Will Detroit’s defense build off its last two performances?
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