Jaguars vs. Ravens Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football

Week 9’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) against the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The Jaguars enter as 9.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.17x payout if they win, per PrizePicks.

Of course, the biggest storyline entering this matchup is the dire QB situation the Ravens find themselves in following injuries to Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley last week, leaving third-string QB Joe Fagnano as tonight’s starter.

The team is reportedly finalizing a trade for QB Jacoby Brissett, but it isn’t expected to be completed until this weekend. With Jacksonville looking like one of the top teams in the AFC and being fresh off a 42-7 beatdown of the lowly Indianapolis Colts, things look bleak for Baltimore despite being at home.

Will the Jaguars take advantage of an undermanned opponent, or could the Ravens put up a bigger fight than the spread would suggest? 

Below, we’ll break down our Jaguars vs. Ravens prediction and picks for Week 9’s Thursday Night Football game tonight, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Jaguars vs. Ravens prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Jaguars vs. Ravens Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football Week 9

The Jaguars enter Thursday’s game as 9.5-point road favorites against the Ravens, returning a 1.17x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks – or an estimated $117 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Jaguars vs. Ravens game on PrizePicks. 

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Jaguars vs. Ravens prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

The Jaguars have been incredibly efficient on offense, ranking fifth in PPG (28.0) and 10th in YPG (350.3). Those marks are even more impressive when you consider they play at the league’s slowest neutral pace, per Sharp Football Analysis, contributing to them averaging the seventh-fewest plays per game (59.1).

That efficiency was on full display in Week 8. QB Trevor Lawrence completed 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards and 3 TDs, and the team rushed for 183 yards and another 2 TDs. With the game well in hand through three quarters, Lawrence’s services weren’t even needed for the final frame.

It’s worth noting the offense could be without lead RB Bhayshul Tuten, who will reportedly be a game-time decision. If Tuten is ruled out, that'd leave RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. as the top option in the backfield. 

Jacksonville has also been a force defensively, giving up the second-fewest PPG (15.9). However, season-ending injuries to DT DaVon Hamilton and S Eric Murray could be a blow to this unit. 

Frankly, the Ravens’ offense may need all the help it can get now that it’s down to its third QB. 

Following first-half injuries to Jackson and Huntley in Week 8 against the Buffalo Bills, emergency QB Fagnano was forced into action. As an undrafted rookie seeing his first regular-season action, Fagnano predictably struggled, completing 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards and 1 INT while also losing a fumble.

Buffalo would ultimately pull away with a 36-10 win.

Fagnano will now make his first start, and particularly with the short week, that could lead to a run-heavy approach behind RB Derrick Henry.

The Ravens’ defense is below average in PPG (25.4), but it's a reasonable 15th in YPG (331.0). Baltimore might need an especially strong performance from its D to have any shot at the upset.    

Jaguars vs. Ravens Prediction on Spread for Thursday Night Football – 11/5/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Jaguars vs. Ravens pick against the spread for Thursday, November 5.

• Advanced metrics view the Jaguars kindly on both sides of the ball. Per RBSDM, Jacksonville is third in EPA/play (0.124) and fourth in EPA/play allowed (-0.081). It's also inside the top 10 in both offensive success rate (46.5%) and defensive success rate (42.3%). 
• The team is fifth in both offensive and defensive DVOA, via FTN.
• The Jaguars’ defense is sixth in pressure rate (39.2%) and fifth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (55%). The Ravens’ offense is 26th in pressure rate allowed (40.9%) and 21st in pass block win rate (47%). Fagnano was sacked 3 times (12.5% rate) in two-and-a-half quarters last week.
• Baltimore’s D ranks 18th in EPA/play allowed (0.017) and 21st in success rate (44.4%).
• In Week 8, the Ravens’ offense posted the third-worst EPA/play (-0.460). The Atlanta Falcons and Colts were tied for last (-0.492). Atlanta struggled to move the ball in a downpour, while Indianapolis was completely held in check by none other than Jacksonville. 

Make your Jaguars vs. Ravens picks now for Thursday’s NFL game.

Jaguars vs. Ravens Picks, Player Stats for TNF on PrizePicks: 11/5/26

Here are the top Jaguars vs. Ravens picks to target on Thursday, November 5. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Trevor Lawrence and Derrick Henry.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Ravens: 29.5 Pass Attempts

• Lawrence is averaging 28.3 pass attempts per game. He’s fallen below 30 attempts in five of his seven games this year.
• In addition to the Jaguars playing at the league’s slowest pace, they’re also 27th in pass rate over expected.
• Lawrence has been benched early in all three games Jacksonville won by multiple scores, most recently sitting out the entire fourth quarter in last week’s victory over Indianapolis.
• The Jaguars could have success running the ball, as the Ravens are 22nd in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.078).
• Even if Tuten is unable to play, Rodriguez might not be a significant downgrade as a lead rusher. Per PFF, Rodriguez is averaging 4.6 rush YPC and 3.73 yards after contact per attempt, while Tuten's respective marks are 4.5 and 3.81.

Add Trevor Lawrence + Jaguars to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Jaguars: 67.5 Rush Yards

• Baltimore could have a difficult time running the ball against Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ defense is allowing the fewest rushing YPG (77.4) and YPC (3.4). This is further supported by ranking second in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.199).
• Henry is mustering just 4.0 YPC after averaging 5.2 last year and 5.9 in 2024.
• The star RB has been limited to 17 or fewer carries in Baltimore’s four losses compared to getting 23+ in all four wins. In last week’s defeat, Henry saw a season-low 11 rushes. 
• Over the last three weeks, he’s rushed for 58, 45, and 53 yards. According to JJ Zachariason, Henry’s yards before contact per attempt has been below 1.0 in all three of those games.
• ESPN’s Dan Graziano lists Henry as a potential trade candidate, particularly if they lose on Thursday. If that’s the case, the Ravens might pull him early if they fall into a deep hole.  

Add Derrick Henry + Ravens to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Jaguars vs. Ravens Picks on PrizePicks

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a heavy road favorite against an injury-marred Baltimore Ravens team. Can Baltimore keep things close despite being down to its third-string QB?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Jaguars vs. Ravens picks on PrizePicks now for Week 9 and earn real money if you're right.

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