FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff heads to Columbus for Illinois (2-1) vs. #7 Ohio State (2-1), kicking off at 12:00 p.m. ET at The Shoe. According to PrizePicks, the Buckeyes are heavy 27.5-point favorites on the spread at home vs. Illinois.
Both teams dropped games in Week 2, with Illinois falling 31-27 vs. Duke and Ohio State blowing a 20-point lead in its 24-23 loss vs. Texas. The Fighting Illinois took out Southern Illinois 48-10 last week, while OSU rolled to a 59-3 dub over Kent State.
Saturday’s matchup marks each squad’s first Big Ten game of the 2026 season. Let’s break down the matchup, followed by our Illinois vs. Ohio State predictions and picks for PrizePicks.
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Illinois vs. #7 Ohio State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Saturday, September 26
If the AP Top 25 Poll were the be-all and end-all, the sky would be falling in Columbus. Ohio State questionably dropped from #1 to #6 in the poll following a 1-point loss on the road vs. Texas, followed by dropping another spot after a 56-point win as 52.5-point favorites vs. Kent State.
Fortunately, we have metrics and projections on PrizePicks to put things into perspective.
First, Ohio State has the shortest payout to win the Big Ten championship (2.56x) and the second-shortest payout to win the national championship (6.25x), per PrizePicks. According to Game on Paper, the Buckeyes are fifth nationally with +0.46 EPA per play.
Meanwhile, Illinois features +0.02 EPA per play (65th out of 138 FBS teams) and has allowed 27.0 PPG against FBS opponents in UAB (23 points) and Duke (31 points).
Week 2’s blunder vs. Duke was mainly on the defense and disadvantage in the run game and turnover department. The Blue Devils racked up 9.4 yards per passing attempt and 4.9 yards per carry, compared to Illinois’ 7.5 and 3.5. Further, the Illini lost the turnover battle 1-0.
Fortunately for Illinois, Ohio State has dealt with some ground game troubles of its own, tallying only 0.07 EPA per rushing attempt (55th percentile) while allowing -0.12 (84th percentile). Third downs could be another potential advantage for Illinois to keep things interesting, as OSU has a 7.27 average third-down distance (43rd percentile) compared to the Fighting Illini’s 3.94 (first nationally).
On the injury front, Illinois LB Daniel Brown has yet to debut this season and is listed as questionable. Ohio State OT Phillip Daniels and DE Zion Grady are questionable, with Daniels likely the most notable injury as he allowed 1 pressure in pass protection vs. Texas, via Pro Football Focus.
Illinois vs. Ohio State Spread, Over/Under, Payouts – Saturday, September 26
After being favored by 49.5 points in Week 1 and 52.5 points last week, Saturday’s 27.5-point spread is Ohio State’s smallest favored role of the young season.
Here are the full payouts for Illinois vs. Ohio State on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under.
Make your Illinois vs. Ohio State prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks!
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Illinois vs. Ohio State Prediction on Over/Under – 9/26/26
Through three games, Illinois’ and Ohio State’s offenses are very similar. The Illini carry 0.52 EPA per passing attempt (93rd percentile) and 0.06 EPA per rushing attempt (54th percentile), compared to OSU’s 0.46 (91st percentile) and 0.07 (55th percentile).
However, the defenses are on different stratospheres. Despite returning only 50% of last season’s production on defense (78th), via ESPN, Ohio State’s defense has allowed only 10.0 PPG (94th percentile), 3.2 yards per play (first nationally), and -0.19 EPA per play (95th percentile). Illinois has conceded 27.0 PPG (49th percentile), 5.7 yards per play (38th percentile), and 0.26 EPA per play (16th percentile).
Even against Texas, the Buckeyes allowed only 5.3 yards per passing attempt and 3.4 yards per carry. However, the pass rush lacked at times — contributing to the 11.7% havoc rate from the front seven this season (69th percentile), per Fourth and Short.
Illinois may have an advantage by giving up only a 6.4% havoc rate (96th percentile) on offense. If QB Katin Houser has time in the pocket, he could have success thanks to 9.2 yards per passing attempt and a healthy 10.0 average depth of target (aDOT).
As mentioned, the Illini’s defense has been like a sieve. According to Fourth and Short, they’ve given up a 44.2% pass success rate (28th percentile) and a 37.0% rush success rate (63rd percentile). The unit also allows 1.0 second-level yards per rushing attempt (44th percentile), drawing concern when Ohio State RB Bo Jackson sports a strong 4.62 yards after contact per carry.
Keeping WR Jeremiah Smith and QB Julian Sayin in check is already challenging enough, but if Ohio State is also finding success on the ground, Illinois’ defense could be in store for a long day.
Further adding to the potential for points, Illinois has an angle to find open receivers against OSU’s suspect pass rush.
Lock in your Illinois vs. Ohio State prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!
Illinois vs. Ohio State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/26/26
Saturday’s top Illinois vs. Ohio State picks to target on PrizePicks include QB Katin Houser and WR Jeremiah Smith.
Illinois QB Katin Houser vs. Ohio State: 182.5 Pass Yards
- If Illinois is to keep this competitive, it will likely be on the arm of Katin Houser, who has posted 252.7 passing yards per game.
- He fell under this projection with 182 passing yards in Week 1. Since then, he racked up 271 and 305 passing yards in the last two games.
- Houser’s passing attempts have increased to 32.0 per game over the last two weeks compared to 17 in Week 1. As 27.5-point underdogs, a negative game script with plenty of passes could be ahead.
- Against FBS opponents, Houser has yet to be sacked, and Ohio State’s weakness on defense could be its pass rush. Further, PFF gives Houser 12.5 yards per passing attempt and an elite 12.0% big-time throw rate when blitzed this season. Considering the Buckeyes’ struggles to generate pressure with a four-man front, they may blitz more often on Saturday.
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Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith vs. Illinois: 7 Receptions
- Going against Jeremiah Smith usually isn’t a good idea, but 7 receptions is a high projection. While he logged 8 receptions in his first two games of 2026, Smith tallied only 5 with 85 receiving yards last week.
- After torching Texas for 164 receiving yards, surely no defense will allow Smith one-on-one opportunities, whether he’s in motion or in the slot — something OSU has done more often in 2026.
- Smith will probably get his regardless, but Illinois’ secondary is weak across the board by allowing 0.32 EPA per passing attempt (17th percentile). That could lead to other WRs like Devin McCuin and Brandon Innis getting open more often.
- Additionally, there’s been a focus on QB Jullian Sayin seeing the field better, and head coach Ryan Day has suggested true freshmen WRs Chris Henry Jr. and Brock Boyd will see more snaps going forward.
Pick Jeremiah Smith + Ohio State to win on PrizePicks.
Make Illinois vs. Ohio State Picks on PrizePicks
Illinois and Ohio State open Big Ten play on FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday, September 26. Ohio State looks to improve its balance on offense and the pass rush on defense, while the Fighting Illini’s best chance to stay close likely depends on the passing game.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Illinois vs. Ohio State picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the College Football Playoff.
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