Blue Jays 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. had an excellent 2025 campaign and helped lead the Toronto Blue Jays to the World Series. He launched 23 HRs over 156 games, marking the fifth straight season in which he went deep at least 23 times.
Below, we’ll discuss how many home runs Vlad Guerrero Jr. could hit in his 2026 fantasy baseball outlook, as well as his other PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks.
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Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s 2025 Stats
Guerrero’s 23 HRs last season were his lowest mark since the 2020 shortened season. His 48 HRs in 2021 appear to be an outlier. The next four seasons, he followed up with 32, 26, 30, and 23 long balls.
When he went deep 48 times in 2021, Guerrero had a 15.1% barrel rate that has been the highest mark of his career. Last season, his barrel rate fell to 12.2%.
The star slugger has been pulling the ball less the last two seasons. Per FanGraphs, he had a pull rate of at least 39.5% in each of his first five seasons. That mark dropped to 35.3% in 2024 and finished at 36.1% last year.
His stellar eye at the plate is a significant positive for the first baseman, with his 11.9% walk rate and 13.8% strikeout rate last season.
Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s 2026 HRs Projection: 29.5
Guerrero has been a picture of health throughout his career, appearing in at least 156 games in five straight seasons. That helps him rack up counting stats, including home runs.
The 27-year-old has similar home and road home run splits in the last two seasons. He hit 15 home runs at home and 15 home runs on the road in 2024, then followed that up with 12 home runs in Toronto and 11 home runs on the road last year.
According to Baseball Savant, Guerrero had a fly ball rate of 25.2% in 2021. He hasn’t topped 21.9% in any other season of his career, including last year when his fly ball rate was 19.8%. Instead, he set a new career high with his 27.1% line drive rate last season.
More Vlad Guerrero Jr. 2026 MLB Projections
Here are more Vlad Guerrero Jr. projections for 2026 on PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks.
- 172.5 Hits
- 100.5 RBIs
- 0.5 Triples
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Guerrero will once again anchor the Blue Jays’ lineup in 2026. While he has power, that’s not the entirety of what he brings to the plate. In fact, he has been pulling the less and hitting fewer fly balls since his breakout 48 homer season in 2021.
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