With Christmas Day NBA festivities in the books, the Association returns with a nine-game Friday night slate. Kicking off the evening are the Heat and Hawks at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Since getting off to a hot start this year, Miami has fallen back to .500 and sits eighth in the Eastern Conference. Right behind them is Atlanta at 15-16, also 2-8 in their last 10. Friday’s contest could serve as a launching pad for either side.
Below, we’ll break down a Heat vs. Hawks prediction and picks to consider for Friday night’s game. Use PrizePicks NBA to make player picks and win money if you’re right.
Heat vs. Hawks Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Friday marks the 143rd regular-season meeting between Miami and Atlanta. The Heat hold an 81-61 series advantage, including back-to-back wins earlier this calendar year.
On the injury front, the Heat are without SG Tyler Herro (toe). C-F Bam Adebayo (back) is questionable. On the Hawks’ side, C Kristaps Porzingis (reconditioning) is out.
Heat vs. Hawks Over/Under, Spread
The Heat enter Friday’s game as 4.5-point road underdogs, returning a 2.22x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Hawks are home favorites with a 1.58x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Atlanta Hawks -4.5
- Over/Under: 245.5
- Game Winner Payout: Heat 2.22x | Hawks 1.58x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Heat vs. Hawks Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Heat vs. Hawks.
- Miami is 16-14 against the spread this season, good for a 53.3% cover rate. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 14-17 (45.2%).
- The Heat’s offense has slipped since the beginning of the season, but it’s still ninth in per-game scoring at 119.2 points.
- Defensively, Miami is 18th in the paint (51.7 PPG) and 14th in fastbreak scenarios (15.0 PPG).
- Powered by star F Jalen Johnson for most of the year, the Hawks’ offense averages the most assists per game (31.1) and is sixth in fastbreak scoring (17.5 PPG).
- On the other end, Atlanta is 23rd in opponent field goal efficiency (47.9%).
- The Hawks’ -0.8 average scoring margin is 17th in the sport.
Heat vs. Hawks NBA Picks, Stats for PrizePicks Today
Here are three top Heat vs. Hawks picks to consider for Friday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by C-F Bam Adebayo, PG Trae Young, and F Jalen Johnson.
Heat C-F Bam Adebayo vs. Hawks Projection: 28.5 Pts + Rebs
- Through 24 appearances, Adebayo averages 27.5 combined points and rebounds. In his last six outings, that number falls to 25.3.
- Adebayo is converting on a career-low 46.6% of his shot attempts, and his 14.0 average field goal tries per game marks his lowest threshold since 2021.
- The three-time All-Star’s 5.2% offensive rebounding rate is the lowest of his career. His previous low was 7.4% in 2023.
- With the back injury still lingering, the Heat could be cautious with Adebayo’s workload should he be active on Friday.
Hawks PG Trae Young vs. Heat Projection: 32.5 Pts + Asts
- In his return to the lineup on Dec. 18, Young played just 20 minutes and had 8 points and 10 assists. In the two games since, he’s averaged 28.5 points and 12 assists on 28.5 MPG.
- Per databallr, Young’s 45.8% on-ball rate last season placed him in the 99th percentile.
- With both teams ranking in the top five in pace, there could be plenty of opportunities for buckets on Friday night.
- Per FantasyPros, the Heat surrender the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing PGs (52.57).
Hawks F Jalen Johnson vs. Heat Projection: 43.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- In 28 games played, Johnson averages 42.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists. That number is 49.2 in his last 10.
- The former first-round pick is putting up career-bests for true shooting percentage (62.0) and PER (23.0) despite hoisting up 16.6 shots a night.
- Johnson’s 21.4% defensive rebounding rate is a 99th-percentile mark.
- The Hawks’ star forward averages 19.7 potential assists per 100, according to NBARAPM.
Make Heat vs. Hawks Picks on PrizePicks
Heat vs. Hawks isn’t the only avenue basketball fans have to make NBA picks. With PrizePicks, you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit.
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